wedidwhat?
2.7K posts
@Birdman_86
Life is shades of grey.
Joe Rogan lays out why the official story of how Tyler Robinson shot Charlie Kirk doesn't add up for him. He keeps circling back to two things: the gun and the wound. ROGAN: "There's something going on with the guy being able to climb on top of that roof with a gun, dismantle it, put it back together again, and then dismantle it again and put it back together again. Like the whole thing makes no sense." "Anybody who knows anything about guns knows that you take a scope off a gun, you take the barrel off the gun, you take the stock off the gun, you got to put it all back together again. You might not be on anymore. You're going to have to sight that gun in." "And this kid's not like a marksman. It's not like he's got a ton of experience shooting people and shooting at a distance." ".30-06 is a big rifle round. And to shoot a guy in the neck with a .30-06, you'd expect an exit wound. And there's no exit wound. It just goes in." "That's a round that you would shoot an elk with." What's your take on this? Let's hear it.
"How many civilians have actually been killed?! You don't know, do you?" Piers Morgan grills John Spencer on his claim that Israel's ratio of civilian deaths to combatants in Gaza is "the best ratio in modern warfare". 📺youtu.be/XJH5YSo1ifg @piersmorgan | @SpencerGuard
“They are killing enormous numbers of civilians…they are targeting one, two, three enemy combatants and in the process killing huge numbers of civilians. @piersmorgan Piers a few minutes later – “If you can’t say exactly how many civilians have been killed in Gaza, what you say about numbers is bull.” Dear @piersmorgan I tried to explain to you where numbers in the Gaza war (or any war) are going to come from "simply.” But let me type it out so you have a record of it instead of the interruptions and the tactic of just asking the same question over and over while I explain how the numbers work. The same numbers by the way that you used minutes before to criticize Israel and constantly repeat or have guests on that repeat, or more often state not even Hamas numbers but false numbers about xx civilians, xx women, xx children, xx percentages that go beyond Hamas's actual list of casualties. First, let me correct you again (like I did to start the segment) by providing you my actual quotes: 1 - "Israel and the IDF have implemented more measures (sometimes quoted as precautions) to prevent civilian harm in urban warfare than any military in history," That is testable against urban warfare history of any similar situation (mostly attack of defended urban terrain). Israel civilian harm mitigation measure have included advance notification (flyers, phone calls, text messages, voicemails, drones with speakers, tv, radio, social media), safe corridors to include improving roads used for safe corridors in the middle of the war, roof knocking (notifying all residents of a building in advance for evacuations and then using non-penetrating low-yield munitions on top of the building before then waiting to strike), over daily multi-hour pauses in fighting (over 400 days of the 800 days of fighting) to allow civilian evacuations and aid movement, establishing a one-star commanded civilian harm mitigation cell that created a real time civilian presence (using cell phone presence, drones, satellite images, etc.) software reflected on all combat operating systems, handing out their own military maps to the entire population (to include the enemy) and then communicating the location of IDF operations, areas to avoid or further evacuate, using major call outs of buildings and neighborhoods, restrictive rules of engagement based on likely civilian presence, rigorous fires processes and legal reviews that often ended in calling mission off out of civilian harm estimates. Many of these measures have never been attempted, by any military. 2 - "Israel has a lower civilian to combatant ratio than any similar context (war or battle) in the history of urban warfare.” After acknowledging the lack of comparative cases (size of enemy forces (which I asked you about, you don't know), tunnels, density, strategy, tactics, prevention of civilian evacuations) but still doing the simple analysis, in order to provide the evidence for this statement I use the same numbers you and your frequent guests push to condemn Israel. But here: Q: How do you estimate the number of civilians deaths? A: Take the number the Hamas Gaza Health Ministry reports (despite that it includes any death in Gaza for any reason or cause (Israel/Hamas/Other terrorists) and has been well documented with inaccuracies (even having to be updated by Hamas of natural deaths, incomplete entries, false entries) and subtract the Israel stated combatant deaths. The Hamas Gaza Health Ministry claims roughly 72,000 deaths in Gaza. The IDF says it has killed about 25,000-26,000 combatants, a number also reported by President Trump in October 2025. If you subtract 25,000 from 72,000, even using Hamas’s number at face value, you get roughly 47,000 non-combatant deaths, or a bit less than a 2:1 ratio. If you were modest to adjust for natural deaths and Hamas-caused deaths, is likely closer to 35,000–40,000 non-combatant deaths versus 25,000 combatants killed, which puts the ratio closer to 1.5:1. If you compare 2:1 or 1.5:1 to any numbers we have (in many cases we don’t have) for wars, urban centric wars, contested urban battles they will be some of the lowest ratios (in some cases lowest by far) ever seen despite none of those wars or battles had the context of Gaza. For example: World War II – 70 million civilians, 20 million combatants, 3.5:1 Korean War – 2.5 million civilians, 90,000 combatants, 27:1 Iraq War – 280-300,000 civilians, 150-200,000 combatants, 1.4:1 to 2:1 But wait, the Gaza numbers are usually aggregated numbers for the entire war, any death ever reported in Gaza. But if you disaggregate the numbers to specific battles like Rafah, Khan Yunis, Gaza City 2025 for comparison you get different numbers. Based on modest numbers from the Battle of Rafah, the civilian to combatant ratio would be more like 1:100 due to multiple operational variables like the success of civilian evacuations. Major urban battles (modest comparison of battles with any like variables). Mosul – 10,000 civilians. Combatant unknown but total estimate in battle 5,000 – 2:1 Manila – 100,000 civilians. Combatants 17,000 – 6:1 Seoul – Unknown/no record of civilian but very likely high ratio based on histories Mariupol – Unknown/mass graves, estimate 20-22,000 civilians, 3-8,000 combatants - 2.5:1 to 7.3:1 I actually use this discussion about numbers or quote about ratio sparingly despite how many times it has been attribute to me because I know the complexity of casualty counting especially in urban centric wars with combatants that violate the law of war and do not distinguish themselves (uniforms/marking) making determining a body found (if there is a body) or a name reported (such as methods in Gaza) and then classifying that person as was participating in the hostilities (combatant) or not (noncombatant) is beyond just difficult and should always be viewed as questionable. In Mosul, a year after the battle there was not only no agreed upon casualty number, but the Mayor of the city also said there were 40,000 civilian deaths. These numbers are always messy, political, susceptible to manipulation by the different organizations involved. My point has always been that numbers of casualty reporting in Gaza doesn’t paint the story people routinely push. Actually, the opposite. Urban warfare is inherently and historically costly against civilians and the infrastructure. All wars involve noncombatant death. The moral, legal requirement is to do proportionality assessments and take feasible steps to prevent excessive civilian harm. So, using your logic Piers, if you can’t state how many combatants were killed (by Israel, Hamas, terrorist rockets, other terrorists in power struggles) … you can’t say (or allow your guests to say) Israel has killed a “large number of civilians” or “killed a disproportionate number of civilians” like you did in this very interveiw. You can't spend years saying Israel is killing enormous numbers of civilians and then tell me nobody can estimate civilian deaths so ratios aren't valid. Those two positions can't both be true. If casualty estimates are reliable enough to accuse Israel, then they're also reliable enough to examine civilian-to-combatant ratios. If they aren't, then they shouldn't be used selectively only when they support one conclusion.
