Bitcoin Daily

@jon_mcguffin @benjamincowen It’s a game of probability not certainty. You play the probabilities and manage risk. As long as you’re right more than you’re wrong, you make a profit. Has zero to do with astrology. It’s math. Just like poker

@benjamincowen It could go up…. It could go down…. Same story. Astrology for men ;)

Bitcoin rejected off its 200D

Insane trading month in April. Nothing fancy. Just risking between 0.5% to 1% per trade. Trading is just a game of probability. Figure out the math and then obsess over risk management so that you survive long enough for the math to play out in your favor

Hey @grok, edit this image to what #Bitcoin price will be in the next 3 years

Here is what the halving cycle has played out so far

@IDFinancial Also your chart says 2022 twice. It actually shows the low that got revisited in November 🤣

Every time Bitcoin has recovered 30% from a cycle low, it has never revisited that low. 6 for 6 across 13+ years. The YTD low of $61,303 (bitbo.io) to today's ~$79K is a +28.9% recovery. The +30% confirmation level sits at $79,694. We're at the doorstep.

2022: bounced 40%+ off the June low, then made new lows soon after. After that it had another rally before a 2nd crash Same thing in 2018: multiple 30%+ bounces on the way down to $3,200. Your “6 for 6” is just survivorship bias. The 30% bounces that didn’t hold aren’t in your table because you only counted the ones that became cycle lows in hindsight. This is backwards-looking pattern matching, not signal.

I don’t make the rules

The 4 year cycle is not dead. I called this rally since February crash. So far the cycle is spot on. April is typically a bullish month for bitcoin. Short term we are in a uptrend with a bull flag aiming at a high of potentially $83k Zoom out and we are in a bear flag with a target of sub $50k Flags play out 70% of the time. So we can easily hit both short term and long term targets with May/June being bad months for crypto historically. At the end of the day this is a game of probabilities not guarantees. If you held and didn’t sell in October because you refused to believe the cycle, you’re down 40% right now screaming the cycle is dead anytime Bitcoin pumps.

Breaking the cycle high has nothing to do with the 4 year cycle because cycle is based on time, not price. So far the cycle is spot on. April is typically a bullish month for bitcoin. Short term we are in a uptrend with a bull flag aiming at a high of potentially $83k Zoom out and we are in a bear flag with a target of sub $50k Flags play out 70% of the time. So we can easily hit both short term and long term targets with May/June being bad months for crypto historically. At the end of the day this is a game of probabilities not guarantees. Sure he was wrong about April, but he was right about selling in October. If you held and didn’t sell in October, you’re down 40% right now screaming the cycle is dead.

I haven’t even been as vocal about Benjamin Cowen as a lot of others on here yet he still blocked me for the SECOND time this week! He was dead wrong about the direction of the market this month, and he knows it. You think he just went silent from March 26 after he made his big April prediction until recently because he was busy? No, he was busy being salty and refuses to admit it. That violent V shaped recovery in equities broke the very fabric of his soul and everyone knows it. When Bitcoin is back above $100K and eventually makes its way to ATH, he will claim “this was always a possibility” because his ego will never allow himself to admit he was wrong this time. The 4 year cycle is dead. It was dead the moment Bitcoin broke its prior cycle high of $69K BEFORE the 2024 halving. The confluence of data points available to suggest this cycle is different is astonishing, yet some of the smartest people in this space willfully choose to ignore it because it doesn’t support their misguided bias. Very sad to see Oh well. Higher we go! 🚀🚀

@brian_crypto1 @TheRealPlanC Data vs opinion

@TheRealPlanC @BitcoinxDaily thoughts?

Anyone selling Bitcoin because they're convinced it's heading below $60K and the cycle low has to print in Q4 is just gifting their stack to Michael Saylor. The odds of him ever handing it back are near zero. How does price crash to $30K or $40K when Saylor is absorbing 10,000 to 30,000 BTC a week?

Bitcoin cycles aren’t based on price. They are based on time. Do with that what you will.

@quantum_ascend @Bitcoin Quit pasting the same shit and misleading investors and I’ll stop Do some research before you copy and paste every other moon boy brain rot account on X

@BitcoinxDaily @Bitcoin I can actually say whatever I want. Watch it play out. Time will prove who’s right. And quit pasting the same shit on my posts it’s annoying.

$BTC | @Bitcoin 📈 Playing out nearly PERFECTLY 🔥 RSI at the EXACT SAME point on the Daily as it was in 2022. Breaking above the EXACT SAME level (blue line). At the EXACT SAME time. Fade it. I dare you. 😏

@quantum_ascend @Bitcoin I’m sure you were waiting on previous bull market peak signals too that relied on price huh?

@BitcoinxDaily @Bitcoin Incorrect. Worst case we’re in your box that says July

@Calmerthanuare3 Yup. Sold everything in October at $115k. Also bought the bottom last bear market at $17k. Sold bull market peak in 2021 at $65k. I’ve been doing this for a long time lol

@BitcoinxDaily Have you sold all your Bitcoin so you can buy the bottom you’re so sure of?

Bitcoin on Day 157 of Every Bear Market. 2014: -64% 2018: -62% 2022: -42% 2026: -44% Here is what history says happens next. 2014 Bear Market: Peak: $1,150 (Nov 2013) Day 157: -64% Bear Market Duration: 411 days Total Drawdown: -87% 2018 Bear Market: Peak: $19,666 (Dec 2017) Day 157: -62% Bear Market Duration: 363 days Total Drawdown: -84% 2022 Bear Market: Peak: $69,000 (Nov 2021) Day 157: -42% Bear Market Duration: 364 days Total Drawdown: -78% Different crashes. Different narratives. Same clock. 2026 Bear Market (so far): Peak: $126,000 (Oct 6, 2025) Day 157: -44% Total Drawdown: -52% We're not even halfway through this Bear Market yet. "But this time is different." It always is. 2014: Mt. Gox collapse. 411 days. 2018: ICO bubble burst. 363 days. 2022: FTX implosion. 364 days. 2026: Tariff war, Iran War Day 157. Different stories. Same clock. The drawdowns are compressing. 2014: -87% 2018: -84% 2022: -78% 2026: -47% so far Every cycle, the crash gets smaller. Institutions compress the pain. They don't eliminate it. The floor this time? Likely $40K–$50K. The regression isn't complicated. People's feelings about it are. Duration: ~363 days. Twice in a row. To the day. Drawdowns: shrinking ~5% per cycle. Structure: identical. The model says what it says. Your timeline might disagree. The model won't.

@POLO_ADDICT @quantum_ascend @Bitcoin We aren’t going as low as before due to diminishing drawdowns. But -60% to -70% is on the table

@BitcoinxDaily @quantum_ascend @Bitcoin to think we’re going this low is crazy

$BTC | @Bitcoin 📽️ The Bull Case For Bitcoin This is the most complete breakdown you’ll see right now, from macro to intraday. There’s one comparison in here that no one on X is talking about. Does it have to play out? No. But it’s 100% data-driven. Right now, the crowd is leaning one way. When that happens… I look the other way. There’s so much noise out there. I originally shared this with my group last week — but I’m not leaving 30,000 of you behind. If this hits, you’ll understand why before it happens. Like, comment, retweet — I want this to help as many people as possible. Let’s get into it 👇

@CryptoPoseidonn Because BTC is based on time, not price

Last time $BTC bottomed at the previous ATH, why shouldn't it bottom now?