"The Market Sniper" • Precise Market Analysis

🚨US private credit stocks are plummeting: Blue Owl Capital shares are down -55.6% over the past 12 months. This dramatically underperforms Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, Ares, Carlyle, and TPG, all of which are down roughly -17% to -38% over the same period. This comes as redemption requests at Blue Owl's 2 largest funds totaled $4.7 billion in Q2, still far above the funds' 5% quarterly withdrawal cap. Its technology-focused fund, OTIC, saw the greatest pressure, with 38.1% of shares tendered for redemption, more than double the 9% to 17% range seen at the largest peer funds that have reported Q2 results. Its flagship fund, OCIC, saw redemption requests reach 18.8% of shares, alongside $660 million in net outflows. Across the broader private credit industry, investors requested a record $15.6 billion in redemptions in Q2, with only 38% of requests met, leaving $9.7 billion unmet, the highest amount on record. The $2 trillion private credit industry crisis is getting worse.

If he's right, here's the part nobody's acting on: when the Fed cuts, your savings rate goes with it. Banks front-run the cut and quietly trim deposit APYs first. The move isn't to guess the date. It's to lock today's 4.5% into a CD before it's gone. Floating cash loses when rates fall.

If he's right, here's the part nobody's acting on: when the Fed cuts, your savings rate goes with it. Banks front-run the cut and quietly trim deposit APYs first. The move isn't to guess the date. It's to lock today's 4.5% into a CD before it's gone. Floating cash loses when rates fall.