Blockcircle

Insiders dumping $1.3B+ of stock across 124 sells with zero buys is only one view. The same tickers pulled through the Company Valuation Engine tell a more useful story. A subset of those names is flagged as overvalued by 30% or more on the composite score, where the insider selling lines up with the model. Others sit close to fair value, where the same insider activity is harder to read as a directional call, still very useful, but more difficult to gauge. Insider behavior and valuation context are two layers of the same picture.

We just shipped an update to something we've wanted for a long time. It's in the Asset Outperformer Engine. Now you can construct your own benchmark that you care about (e.g. BTC, ETH, SOL, Gold, or the S&P 500) and it surfaces every asset consistently beating it across short, medium, and long timeframes. Scans 3,000+ cryptos, 4,000+ stocks, ETFs, commodities, and metals throughout the day. Free to try at blockcircle.com/aoe/

Conversational, structured, and grounded in observable data rather than random speculations. The same kind of breakdown a hedge fund analyst would put together by stitching seven separate tools manually, regenerated on demand for any supported asset.

His Market Analysis covers three layers: macro write-ups on regime, rates, and liquidity; sector research on tech and energy; financials; and the rest, plus single-asset deep dives on specific names that fit a thesis worth holding.

The Market Analysis output by @BaselIsmail reads like an analyst who has been watching the market all day, walking through what they are seeing.

The Global Liquidity Scorecard uses 27 currencies as denominators. USD is the default starting point. EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, CHF, AUD, CNY for the majors. Then 20 more across Asia Pacific, the Middle East, and Latin America. KRW, INR, BRL, MXN, SAR, AED, TRY, IDR, and others. The same liquidity composite reads differently in different currencies, and a trader operating in Brazil or Saudi Arabia benefits from the local currency view rather than the default USD one. The world is GLOBAL, and as such, it is critical to track liquidity across the major markets, and not just with a US-centric mindset.

The combined Model 7 (M7 Combined) score is the single number to watch. It is a 0 to 100 composite recession risk reading built on the agreement or disagreement of the 7 underlying models. A score where all 7 models agree on elevated risk reads very differently from a score driven by one or two models firing while the rest stay quiet. The number is informative on its own, just a simple way to summarize the macro picture empirically. The breakdown panel below explains exactly where the score came from, preventing the user from overreacting to any single model.

The Alt Season Index inside the Altcoin Market Scorecard (AMS) tracks the percentage of the top 50 altcoins outperforming Bitcoin over a rolling window. When more than 75% of the top 50 outperform BTC, the market is in alt season. When fewer than 25% do, it is BTC season. Anything in between is a transition. The reading sits at a specific percentage on the dashboard right now, with the historical chart showing exactly where similar past readings landed in the cycle.

@Bambardini Yes, absolutely a key consideration

@Blockcircle nettable exposures fee slippage execution risk

The cross-match arbitrage view on Prediction Alpha is probably the most underused feature on the platform. It scans every market across six venues for the same event listed at different prices. Polymarket pricing an election outcome at fifty-three percent while Kalshi/PredictIt/Manifold has the same event at forty-eight percent is a five-point spread you can lock in by taking opposite sides on the two venues. These spreads are usually under three points and close fast. The dashboard surfaces them as they open, ranked by spread size and liquidity. Most retail prediction market traders never see them because they only check one venue.

Here is one fast moving market: blockcircle.com/market/0xa93b2…

Marvell Technology $MRVL is sitting at a composite outperformance score of 83 on the Asset Outperformer Engine (AOE) today with a 30-day return of +36% and Phase B confirmation across all 5 benchmarks. Seagate $0AD3 is at 73 with +60%, Texas Instruments $TXN at 73 with +35%, and the semis ETF at 75 with +34%. Semi-exposure is dominating the top of the board across single names and the sector ETF, ranked by relative strength against $BTC, $ETH, $SOL, $Gold, and $SPY rather than a single index. Same scoreboard: all asset classes side by side. This benchmark is strong, so assets that outperform it are attractive.

The Global Liquidity Scorecard overlays the composite score against BTC, SPX, and gold returns on the same chart

Each model has its own historical accuracy track record on the same row, so you can see which ones performed best in past cycles before reading the current value off the dashboard. The entire point is to avoid making blind speculations!

The Macroeconomic Risk Scorecard runs seven independent recession probability models in parallel and combines them into one composite read on the cycle. This is very helpful for multiple reasons, a short post about the benefits

A leading congressman just disclosed a $30K to $100K purchase of an "exploration, production, gathering, and transmission of hydrocarbons and natural gas" company called $EQT The trades were made over 30+ days before the disclosures hit

@Blockcircle Political Alpha indexed the filing within minutes of it going live, while multiple insiders were selling. Investigating this now, as it could be an interesting positional trade

Step up and put your trust in actual data

Wow, these are beautiful Plaza, much appreciated, truly honored, thank you