BoringMath

@MrMikeInvesting A 40% drop needs a 66.7% rebound just to get back to flat. A 20-30% bounce feels dramatic and still leaves a lot of red on the screen.

Now’s the time to get this watchlist ready: $MRVL at $155 $NBIS at $140 $MU at $700 $AMD at $420 $TSLA at $290 $NVDA at $190 $INTC at $80 $DOCN at $100 When tech bottoms your portfolio with these stocks will jump 20-30%+ in just weeks. Those who dare not to touch these names after their recent 30/40% haircuts will be the same ones chasing these at ATH’s Don’t miss out…

@MrMikeInvesting +29% after a 30% haircut still leaves you down 9%. Percentage losses and recoveries are not mirror images, which is why back to even takes longer than people think.

Update on the watchlist posted yesterday: $MRVL +16% $NBIS +29% $MU +19% $AMD +14% $TSLA +5% $NVDA +4% $INTC +16% $DOCN +13% Don’t say you weren’t warned about the upcoming V shape rally. It’s still not too late…

@jonbrooks The 3% seller and the 7% buyer are looking at two different housing markets. A four-point rate jump can make the same house unaffordable without the sticker price moving much. boring-math.com/calculators/us…

Housing isn't frozen because people don't want to move. It's frozen because they can't. Sellers don't want to give up a 3% mortgage. Buyers can't afford a 7% mortgage. Builders are paying people to buy. Renters can't save fast enough. Nobody is where they want to be. That's what a locked housing market looks like.

@money_cruncher $51k of interest to build $13k of equity is why short-hold housing stories go wrong. In the first few years the mortgage behaves more like rent with closing costs than ownership. boring-math.com/calculators/us…

If you put a 20% down on a $400k home, and finance $320k at 5.5%, you will pay: Y1: ~$17k of interest Y2: ~$17k of interest Y3: ~$17k of interest In the first 3 years, you'll pay $51k of interest and get $13k of equity. And if you sell it, you will lose big time. Buying a house for the SHORT TERM doesn't make sense. Long term is a different story.

@CutMyTaxUK 1.8% above £6,240 sounds small until it becomes a permanent line on the payslip. People notice a new deduction faster than they notice the branding around it.

The latest leak is that Burnham is planning a new levy on income, charged at 1.8% of earnings above £6,240 and paid by workers over the age of 34, in order to finance a new so-called national care service. This is an increase in income tax in all but name and clearly would breach Labour's manifesto commitments. It's truly amazing that Burnham has concluded that despite excessive levels of tax and spending, what the country needs is yet more tax and spending.

@DanNeidle 25 years of courts killing avoidance schemes tells you the problem here is the rulebook, not taxpayers being unusually creative. Business rates still look like a 1970s system patched into 2026.

For the last 25 years, the courts have struck down just about every tax avoidance scheme they've seen. Except business rates, where the law remained stuck in the 1970s.

@DanNeidle £30bn lost from a tax base that raises about £20bn is a harsh stress test. If the estimate is right, the rate chased away more tax than it could ever collect.

Big news in the Washington Post. Scotland's top rate of tax lost £30bn in revenue. An impressive feat when all of Scottish tax comes to about £20bn.

@jonbrooks FHA delinquencies rising is the tell. When the payment stops working at the bottom, the rest of the chain follows. boring-math.com/calculators/us…

Everyone is watching luxury homes. They're watching the wrong market. The biggest risk is at the bottom: • FHA delinquencies rising • Foreclosures up • Florida condos dumping inventory • Builders undercutting resale with incentives The next leg of this housing cycle won't start at the top. It'll start where affordability broke first.

@money_cruncher The jump from $98,900 to $131,100 is the bit people miss. Taxable income and cash withdrawn are not the same thing. boring-math.com/calculators/us…

Long term capital gains are taxed at 0% if your taxable income is below $98,900 (married) in 2026 If you add the standard deduction, you can pull $131,100 TAX FREE (from your brokerage) if you have no other income sources. If cost basis is 10%, you can get ~$144k of cash and pay $0 of federal taxes for MFJ.

@CutMyTaxUK @FraserNelson 58.5 percentage points of extra debt since 2000 is the part every new spending promise has to answer. The bill always lands on some mix of tax, asset sales or later cuts.

Common sense from @FraserNelson on Burnham's foolish social care spending splurge. "Creating a new NHS for care homes? It’s a disastrous idea, unaffordable for a government already facing a spending crisis. If Andy Burnham’s reaction to problems is “let’s take a difficult decision to spend even more and raise tax” then his government may be quite shortlived. This is all rather simple. Those who can for their care should pay. There is no scandal about selling your home to pay for care: people should be free to sell a house, or any other asset, if they face a big bill", says Fraser. Spending is out of control and debt is spiralling. A big new spending programme is little more than pure stupidity.

@MrMikeInvesting $157, $190 and $739 still leave you needing the right ticker and the right timing. Boring monthly investing wins more often than celebrity stock tips.

The CEO of the largest hedge fund & company in the world literally just told everyone what to buy to get rich. Larry Fink is calling out: > $BE at $157 > $NVDA at $190 > $NBIS at $148 > $MU at $739 “The United States is short Power, Compute, Chips, & Memory” Don’t miss out…

@2147mill £100k earning £7,000 a year is why the first chunk feels slow. The real grind is getting enough money in early for compounding to matter. boring-math.com/calculators/co…

Charlie Munger reckoned the first £100k was the hardest slog of his financial life. Makes sense. At 7% growth, £100k earns £7,000 a year doing nothing. At £10k, that same 7% is £700. The first chunk is all graft. After that, money starts working with you.

@jonbrooks 9.1% to 5.1% tells you the discount is hiding in financing, not just the listing price. A small price cut can still lose to a brutal monthly payment. boring-math.com/calculators/mo…

The biggest mistake people are making is looking at home prices. Look at builder margins instead. Lennar: • Operating margin: 9.1% → 5.1% • Incentives: 12.9% of every sale Builders aren't defending prices. They're sacrificing profits to keep sales moving. The real price cut isn't on Zillow. It's buried on the income statement.

@middle_class_us Five to ten years from retirement while funding parents, adult children and a mortgage means one income is carrying four balance sheets. The squeeze starts as arithmetic long before anyone gives it a generational label.

Gen X turned 50 this decade and discovered what 50 now means in America. Still paying the mortgage they bought at the worst time. Still recovering from the career disruption of COVID. Still helping their parents who didn't save enough. Still supporting their adult kids who can't afford to leave. Still five to ten years away from a retirement that keeps getting more expensive to reach. Still showing up. Still not complaining loudly enough for anyone to notice. Gen X didn't get a golden era. They got the bill for everyone else's.

@jonbrooks $121,000 needed against an $81,604 median income leaves a $39,396 hole before anyone argues about budgeting. A cheaper coffee order will not close a nearly 50% housing-income gap.

To buy the median home today, you need to earn roughly $121,000/year. The median U.S. household earns $81,604. That's nearly a 50% gap. Home prices didn't suddenly become unaffordable. Mortgage rates exposed that they already were. This isn't a housing crisis. It's an income crisis that's showing up in housing.

@middle_class_us 70% employed is the figure that kills the lazy-kids story. If rent consumes the deposit savings each month, moving out becomes an affordability equation, not a motivation test. boring-math.com/calculators/re…

A record 25.2 million Americans under 35 are living with their parents. That is 33% of the entire age group. 49% of adults under 30 are living with a parent right now. Up from 37% in 2019. 70% of them are employed. They are not lazy. They are doing math that does not work. The previous record was the Great Depression. We just matched it. In what everyone keeps calling the strongest economy in history.

@money_cruncher $51,000 of interest to gain $13,000 of equity is the number short-term buyers need to see. The monthly payment can look manageable while the first three years still punish an early sale. boring-math.com/calculators/mo…

$10,000 covers 10 months when essentials cost $1,000. It covers about 3 months when they cost $3,300. Monthly essentials set the emergency-fund target. boring-math.com/calculators/em…

A rising salary can hide a flat net worth for years. If every pay rise becomes a bigger car, house or card balance, income improved and wealth did not. Add assets, subtract debts, check it monthly. boring-math.com/calculators/ne…

@MrMikeInvesting +594%, +96% and +59% look decisive when you start with the winners. The missing number is how many calls went nowhere. A track record needs the whole denominator, not three screenshots.

Donald Trump has gone undefeated in the stock market, & has been literally telling you what to buy. So far he’s called: $INTC at $19 & ran +594% $DELL at $230 & ran +96% $NOW at $81 & ran +59% He’s now calling: $USAR at $14 $MP at $41 $ALOY at $7 “I’ll tell you how to make money, do magnets” Don’t miss out again…