Institut Bosphore

Istanbul @FranceenTurquie @FranceaIstanbul @BosphorusInst BEYOND GEOPOLITICS • USA, China & Europe • Democracies in the age of artificial intelligece • Türkiye & Investments Inauguration by @isabelledumont @BernardFialaire @senat @umitnazliboyner @XavierHurstel @kaleagasi

Experts say the nation is fast becoming a renewable pioneer for the region. ➡️ l.euronews.com/37xk

“Cyprus Confidential” exposes how deeply entrenched Russian financial influence in Southern Cyprus enabled oligarchs and close allies of Vladimir Putin to shield assets and circumvent Western sanctions. Beyond finance, it reflects a broader pattern. For years, parts of Southern Cyprus acted as a key offshore gateway for Russian capital, creating layers of economic and political dependency that inevitably shaped strategic choices. This context is not disconnected from politics. In 2004, the Annan Plan for Cyprus reunification 2004, supported by the EU, Greece, Türkiye, and the Turkish Cypriot community, was rejected in the South, closing a rare window for reunification. And yet, viewed from today’s perspective, the Cyprus issue appears increasingly disproportionate when set against Europe’s systemic challenges. The continent is navigating a historic transition, from AI and technological sovereignty to energy security, defense, and global competitiveness. In that landscape, a frozen conflict on a small island continues to absorb political bandwidth and block strategic coherence in EU external relations. The contrast is striking. While Europe seeks to position itself in the global AI race and manage great-power competition, legacy disputes such as Cyprus still constrain decision-making, institutional agility, and the ability to act with unity and scale. icij.org/investigations…

EDAM Chairperson Ambassador (R) @TacanILDEM , in his assessment for T24, examined whether Europe’s search for a new security architecture, amid deepening transatlantic divergences, could create a new window of opportunity for Türkiye. edam.org.tr/en/edam-in-the…

Highly relevant! "The Cost of Closing the Strait of Hormuz: Energy Bottlenecks and Global Food Security" by Julian Hinz, Hendrik Mahlkow, Robin Sogalla, and Gerald Willmann. "In March 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is closed. The shutdown blocks roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and one-quarter of its liquefied natural gas, triggering severe welfare losses in energy-dependent developing countries worldwide. Standard trade models underestimate the impact because they miss the bottleneck mechanism: energy disruptions cascade through chemicals and fertilizer production into food prices, amplifying losses for the world’s poorest countries. Developing countries that depend on imported energy and fertilizers—particularly in South Asia, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East—face the steepest food price increases and welfare losses. The aggregate global costs are moderate, but the burden falls disproportionately on the world’s poorest: the USA loses just −0.07%, while countries in South Asia and Africa face losses 10–20 times larger. A prolonged closure allows some market adjustment, but structural damage persists—and the timing during peak Northern hemisphere planting season compounds the food security risk." kielinstitut.de/publications/t…

On this day in 1957, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands signed the Treaty of Rome. They laid the foundations for today’s European Union. United in diversity, then and now 🇪🇺

Europe has entered a new geoeconomic era. EU–Türkiye relations, however, remain governed by a framework designed for a different era. Our new piece (@gmfus ) with @ProfErdalYalcin outlines a realistic reform path. gmfus.org/news/eu-turkiy…

While much of the world reacts to crises, China plans decades ahead. Its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) outlines a systemic strategy: AI across the economy; robotics as the industrial backbone; semiconductors and advanced materials; quantum computing and 6G networks; space and lunar infrastructure; reinforced dominance in rare-earth processing... Alongside: green energy expansion, digital infrastructure, stronger domestic consumption, and deep civil-military technology integration... english.www.gov.cn PS✒️ At the same time, Chinese universities are hiring Greco-Roman scholars, and opening classical studies departments; a reminder that long-term power often combines technological ambition with civilizational curiosity. x.com/i/status/20313…

Joint declaration of 🇫🇷 President Macron and 🇩🇪 Chancellor Friedrich Merz.

The outbreak of war between the United States, Israel, and Iran carries grave consequences for international peace and security. At this decisive moment, every measure is being taken to ensure the security of our national territory, our citizens, and our interests in the Middle East. France also stands ready to deploy the necessary resources to protect its closest partners, should they request it. The ongoing escalation is dangerous for all. It must stop. The Iranian regime must understand that it now has no other option but to engage in good faith in negotiations to end its nuclear and ballistic programs, as well as its regional destabilization activities. This is absolutely necessary for the security of all in the Middle East. The Iranian people must also be able to freely build their future. The massacres committed by the Islamic regime disqualify it and demand that the voice be returned to the people. The sooner, the better. Faithful to its principles and aware of its international responsibilities, France is calling for an urgent meeting of the United Nations Security Council. I am in close contact with our European partners and friends in the Middle East.

🌐 One of the strategic drivers shaping US policy toward Iran lies within its broader competitive equilibrium with China, encompassing military capabilities, global value chains, advanced technologies, financial leverage, critical raw materials, energy security, artificial intelligence, and the evolving space ecosystem.

“The geopolitical developments remind us that we need to get our house in order! A strong and resilient Europe starts with economic growth and strong companies”, said our DG Markus J. Beyrer at yesterday’s European Economic Dialogues organised by @medef and @commstrat. He discussed how to make Europe less burdensome and more agile and attractive for investment & innovation with Isabelle Djian (Afjel), Sylvie Matelly (Institut Jacques Delors) & Guillaume Labbez (CommStrat).

The EU’s recent actions in the fields of investment, trade, and the economy are generating new risks and prompting a search for new approaches in Turkey-EU economic integration. At our workshop, “New Approaches in Turkey–European Union Relations in Light of the EU’s Recent Agreements on Investment, Trade, and the Economy,” we discussed the risks emerging under the current global context and developed policy recommendations with the contributions of our members. Full Report:🔗 gif.org.tr/files/new-appr…

Strong signal from #MSC2026: 🇩🇪 Chancellor Merz, 🇫🇷 President Macron and 🇬🇧 Prime Minister Starmer's meeting underlines unity, coordination and shared strategic responsibility among Europe’s key security actors.

Here is what @gmfus published İn 2024on 🇪🇺EU-🇹🇷TR foreign policy cooperation by @KadriTastan , @ian_lesser, Paul Levin & me: I argued that 🇪🇺&🇹🇷 should not let what they cannot achieve deter them from pursuing what is possible &mutually beneficial. gmfus.org/sites/default/…

What is the future of US-Türkiye and EU-Türkiye relations? Join the @AtlanticCouncil on February 17, for “Türkiye’s evolving role in a new global geopolitical and security order” hosted by the @AC_TRprogram. For more information and registration⤵️ atlanticcouncil.org/event/turkeys-…

Europe is not as weak as it acts ft.trib.al/BsZvmvb | opinion

❝A renewed customs union would secure #Türkiye’s place in #Europe’s value chain, while reinforcing the EU’s economic and geopolitical presence from the Mediterranean to Central Asia❞ notes @Kaleagasi 📌 Explore the long story of 🇹🇷-🇪🇺 Customs Union modernization talks 👇 🔗 bit.ly/3Lu2AP9

The EU is at an inflection point, and such moments require more than having the right intentions. In our new publication “From Ambition to Delivery”, we call on EU institutions for decisive action: strengthen the single market, lower energy prices, create the right conditions for private investment and innovation, build a credible business case for decarbonisation, advance an ambitious trade and diversification agenda, and deliver a significant reduction in regulatory burden. What businesses need now is clarity, speed, and results that have real impact for companies on the ground. Let’s make 2026 the year we deliver. Read our publication here: businesseurope.eu/publications/f…