Brandon Fowler
1.5K posts

Brandon Fowler
@BrandonEFowler
Lives in Southern Oregon, Husband and Father of three, Seasoned Telecommunications Executive
Oregon, USA Katılım Kasım 2017
349 Takip Edilen367 Takipçiler

Ferrari's first EV, the 2027 Ferrari Luce, debuts, with 1035 horsepower from four electric motors. The body and interior were shaped by an outside design firm led by product-design superstars Jony Ive and Marc Newson. The four-door Luce is Maranello's first five-seater, and it arrives in the States next spring.
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So as someone who's spent nearly 30 years in the telecom space I struggle to believe that AST is a better play.
Yes it's backed by AT&T and Verizon among others. This is actually a negative in my mind. Those companies are notoriously slow to develop new technologies.
While what you say may be true ultimately about SpaceX I don't believe that a "competitor" backed by notoriously slow telecom companies will produce better results in the long term.
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A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX.
I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully.
SpaceX doesn't need your money.
They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity.
95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that.
And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares.
They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product?
100x revenue.
$4.9B net loss.
xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it.
This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile.
Now here's the part I want you to actually consider.
SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive.
But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS .
@AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap.
Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion.
Here's what $40B buys you:
98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps)
The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match)
All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology
Google invested $358M
their largest public equity holding
AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors
$3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog
3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production
Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month
60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers
@SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard.
$ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides.
The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work.
$ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup.
So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing.
Not financial advice. Just math.
$ASTS 🛰️
cc @SawyerMerritt @unusual_whales @DanBTC916
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@nflrums This makes sense, why would you extend a guy coming off an ACL tear and a legal situation that's not fully resolved? Chiefs are smart, they'll let him play out the year and see where things stand. If he stays healthy and puts up another 1,000 yard season they'll pay him then…
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🚨🚨The #Chiefs reportedly aren’t planning to give Rashee Rice a contract extension at this time #chiefskingdom

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@KNBR True but most of those punches have been self inflicted…
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@JimBowdenGM If that is actually true then that's really bad for Vitello.
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Starlink V3 is a massive capacity leap
From SpaceX’s S-1:
Starlink V2
• Launched February 2023
• 96 Gbps downlink capacity
Starlink V3
• Launch targeted for 2026
• 1,024 Gbps downlink capacity
That is roughly a 10.7× jump
This is the next phase of Starlink:
• More bandwidth
• More capacity
• More users served
• More global connectivity
V2 helped scale Starlink to 9,600+ satellites and ~10.3M subscribers.
V3 looks like the layer that pushes Starlink from “satellite internet” closer to true global broadband infrastructure

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@pepperjakcheese I am almost wondering if this is part distraction. Maybe there is someone else they’ve liked all along but they’ll take Cholowsky if he’s there but would prefer someone else that we don’t know about yet… Maybe not, perhaps they’re just that dumb right now.
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@SFGiants @OracleParkSF @NBCSGiants @KNBR @CocaCola No Eldridge? What the hell does this kid have to do to stay in the lineup?
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A lineup from a galaxy far, far away. ⭐️
⌚️: 1:05 p.m. PT
📍: @OracleParkSF
📺: @NBCSGiants
📻: @KNBR | KSFN
#SFGiants | @CocaCola

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This one was taken from a *slightly* safer spot and is my favorite shot from the launch- and is also available in print if you want to support my future sacrificial lenses 😉
You can get it here: cosmicbackground.io/pages/against-…

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@SFGiants Another rough injury for JHL, hopefully this will be minor and he can get back quickly after some rest.
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@KNBR I am great with calling up young talent like Bericoto but he's got to play regularly or it's really pointless. I just hope they're not bringing him up to sit like Eldridge.
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@JonHeyman Good move by the Mets. Tong has been dominant in the minors and there's no reason to wait any longer. As for Kimbrel, hate to see it but when the fastball doesn't have that same life anymore the game moves on pretty quick… really excited to see what Tong can do up here
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@SleeperSFGiants A spot on the bench must have come available to watch ballgames from...
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@NASCAR Man this is just terrible news. 41 years old, two-time champion and one of the most competitive drivers we've ever seen. The guy was a winner through and through even if he rubbed people the wrong way sometimes, that's what made him great. Way too young… RIP Kyle Busch
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We are saddened and heartbroken to share the news of the passing of Kyle Busch, a two-time Cup champion and one of our sport's greatest and fiercest drivers. He was 41 years old.
We extend our deepest condolences to the Busch family, Richard Childress Racing and the entire motorsports community.

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@SteveRoditvb2 @FoulTerritoryTV @Ken_Rosenthal Not necessarily, a couple of them are starting to hit better and as other team look to make a playoff push they might be willing to do a deal for a guy that’s coming out of long slump if the team is willing to pick up a significant amount of salary. Time will tell.
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@BrandonEFowler @FoulTerritoryTV @Ken_Rosenthal Great Utopian idea, however at least at this point, they would almost have to eat almost all of the contracts and then get very little in return. Posey boxed himself in....with deals upfront that looked good
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"I don't see a team, based on their performances this year, being willing to take on those deals."
@Ken_Rosenthal doesn’t see the Giants moving Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Matt Chapman, or Logan Webb at the deadline.
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