Brave Joshua

习近平：霍尔木兹海峡“必须保持畅通” rfi.my/Cd8C.x

We were never America's charity case. America gave Israel aid because it was in America's interest to do so. It was buying tech no one else would or could make until Israel proved it was possible, like Iron Dome. It was also a massive federal grants program to certain Congressional districts, because among its many conditions, nearly all of it had to be spent in America. There's a famous story told by older Israelis about how the aid crashed the textile industry in Israel's south, a major employer in that working-class region, because the IDF started to buy uniforms from American manufacturers. And over the years, a great many of us have chafed at the loss of independence this aid represented -- including over the past three years, again and again. @EinatWilf made this point: "I’m soooo on board for that! Does this mean that we will finally be allowed to: 1) buy what we want, and from whomever we want and most important, develop and produce what we want even if it competes with American products? 2) win our wars rather than be constantly subjected to arrested development ceasefires?" And everybody in Washington knows all this. Netanyahu himself once talked this way, back in the late 90s, until the beneficiaries (on both sides) told him to shut up. This aid was seen in Washington as leverage over the Israelis -- and America has always sought leverage, from the Kennedy-initiated Cold War "bear hug" to keep Israel from going nuclear to Biden's slow-walking of shipments. There are significant knock-on benefits to Israel if the aid goes away. Here's a big one: A US-induced budget crunch might force Netanyahu to finally cut some of the vast, unique Haredi welfare payouts that keeps half of Haredi men out of the job market. And in military terms, independence is even more critical. For example, we all need to be building at least ten times as many drones, missiles and missile-defense interceptors going forward. Or maybe 50 times. Israel has to get serious about massively upping indigenous production and getting away from reliance on any foreign power, even an ally as powerful as America. Financial aid that forces Israel to buy American interceptors delays that critical shift. (America should also be massively upping production and stockpiling, by the way; these technologies are the future of war, and not even America's production capacity reflects that fact.) Long story short, my "camp" in Israeli thinking -- call us the "fiscal responsibility because we're adults" camp that once, in his better days, included Netanyahu -- has always believed and publicly argued that when the aid ends, it'll be a net benefit for Israel. And one final comment: If the aid really does dry up, this will be celebrated as a win by our enemies, by those who yearn to see Israel fall. Good. In fact, this outcome may be the strongest argument for doing it. The movement to destroy us, especially among Arab and Muslim ideologues, has spent literally generations explaining that we only win wars or thrive economically because we have the backing of America. (And before America it was the French, and before the French the Soviets, and before the Soviets the British, and before the British the Russians...you get the idea. For a century and a half, our enemies told this same story to avoid the possibility that our own strength and competence are the reasons we survive and win.) So when we continue to win in a future shorn of American aid, our enemies will learn something valuable about us, something that might make some of them rethink the strategy of sacrificing new generations of Arab or Persian treasure, honor and blood on the altar of our destruction. So let them celebrate. It's really important that they go through the whole psychological arc. The greater the triumphant expectation, the more powerful and educational will be the ultimate failure.