Always bet the break

5.8K posts

Always bet the break

@BreakAlways

Don't bet the break... (Cycling betting, Strategy, Game Theory)

Katılım Eylül 2020

77 Takip Edilen4.4K Takipçiler

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·1h

On the one hand, I often agree with what Vaughters has to say about doping. But he’s led a sketchy operation this decade. Piccolo guilty Baudin post-Tramadol signing Signed Padun post Dauphine (Plus Danielson and the weird thing where signed a lot of ex-dopers early)

English

286

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·1d

Some discourse reminds me of the Offside chatter during the World Cup - in theory you think changing the rule does one thing, but 2nd order effects mean the opposite happens. Both years, having no GC times has *encouraged* good aggressive racing, not the opposite.

English

740

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·1d

I think No GC times on the last day of the Tour should just be the rule going forward: - It’s cobbles with huge flat risk - Would you want IDT to lose places like that? - Gives domestiques more freedom - Allows GC guys to work for their teammates

English

7.1K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·3d

Penultimate stages of grand tours for Carapaz, he’s won 2 stages and lost 3 very winnable GTs: - 2020 Vuelta: would have won the Vuelta but for Hofstede & Movistar pacing Primoz - 2022 Giro: Lost the pink jersey to Hindley - 2025 Giro: you’ll recall that.

English

6.2K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·3d

To be clear: I like that they are practicing their mountain train and leadouts and using satellite riders, so they can get it dialed in for the future - even if it can make them look a little silly when it doesn’t come off today.

English

720

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·3d

Re: Decathlon today - teams need to build the GC infrastructure ahead of their GC rider. This is similar to what Jumbo was doing in 2017, or Bahrain with Landa. Even if you don’t have the top GC guy, it’s helpful to start racing like you do, so you learn how.

English

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·3d

How could Ganna obliterate the doper Moser’s hour record?! How has the team pursuit WR dropped by so much so fast? Etc. I’m not saying you can’t have doubts or questions, but it’s not as if doped performances are completely otherworldly and untouchable forever.

English

10.3K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·3d

“But how could he beat a doper?” - Bike tech - Stages are much shorter, faster, and more rest days (Pantani had one rest day and 250km 8hr stages) - Year round training and tech - On and off course nutrition - Aerodynimacs - Biodynamics Etc. People improve over time!

English

674

116.1K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·4d

State of some of this discourse.

English

1.1K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·4d

Crushed for Einer Rubio, who was going for an awesome feat of finishing all 3GTs, and today had a brutal injury for riding his bike fast. Short stop by the UAE car, he goes through the windshield, and now in hospital. Awful. Ridiculous to have cars on this climb IMO. 🙏 Einer

English

3.4K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·4d

Derek Gee offering to close down the gap to the breakaway

English

999

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·4d

The logistics of the GC guys passing 20 riders and team cars on the Alpe will be of some concern. Will definitely slow them down.

English

735

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·4d

NBC 25 years ago: “People like to watch the Tour because it’s beautiful landscapes and good foreign announcers.” NBC now: “What people really want to watch is 3 middle aged Americans moving holograms around aimlessly.”

English

184

8.4K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·4d

@Fanaticocycling I'd guess he would want a free role in the tispring classics, and the way Ineos are built should enable that - even if Ganna is a leader in some of those, it's not a "we all ride for Ganna in a sprint" - they'll send guys up the road and let guys take chances.

English

Young Riders Rule@Fanaticocycling·4d

@BreakAlways Money and knowing the leadership is good and important yes But like I said I don't see him getting the same freedom and chances. I might be wrong but looking at the way Ineos raced this year I don't think so

English

Young Riders Rule@Fanaticocycling·5d

Shame to see this EF supported him through his recovery and he's enjoying the best season of his career I doubt Ineos is offering the same freedom and chances

Bram Vandecapelle@bvdecape

Transfernieuws. EF Education-EasyPost ziet sterkhouder Michael Valgren vertrekken naar Netcompany Ineos. De 34-jarige Deen is de tweede inkomende transfer voor de Britse ploeg na Harold Tejada van Astana. hln.be/wielrennen/ef-…

English

1.5K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·4d

@Fanaticocycling Better money, knows the team leadership very well, pretty good support for races he may want to target. Seems like a good gig!

GIF

English

Young Riders Rule@Fanaticocycling·4d

@BreakAlways I understand all that but I don't see from a personal perspective how he's better off at Ineos than EF

English

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·5d

More riders (especially who actually have legs) should do the Garcia Pierna move of getting dropped by 10 seconds on the penultimate climb as a signal of weakness then never doing another turn.

English

5.7K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·5d

I expect to see the Visma rider attack earlier on the climb and count on some discord between Carapaz and the other riders in his group. (Tweets from July 2026 and May 2025)

English

996

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·5d

Every stage winner so far has previously won a full WT race - I.e. not even just a stage of a WT race, but a standalone WT race. Hard race to win a stage in. Quality outs.

English

6.9K

Always bet the break@BreakAlways·5d

VPP is a good case study in the difference in KOM calculations between Grand Tours He’s a perfect Giro KOM rider, where the big emphasis is put on being 1st on a climb, regardless of size. TDF is more about high finishes on big climbs.

Always bet the break@BreakAlways

The key to these relative values: 1) In the tour coming 2nd or 3rd on a big climb is much more valuable. In the Giro, winning a small climb is more valuable. Giro: Win 2nd Cat is the same as coming 2nd on the biggest climbs Tour: Win 2nd Cat is 1/3rd of coming 2nd on the biggest

English

3.3K

Keşfet

@Fanaticocycling @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine