Brent Neiman

Surprised the tariff impact hasn’t been even larger? One reason: delays and exceptions mean the actual rate is only half the announced rate.  This and more in a new working paper with @BrentNeiman. Read the paper here: brentneiman.com/research/GN2.p…, online appendix: brentneiman.com/research/GN2_A…

I do not think that the government's formula is an appropriate way to think about reciprocal tariffs. And it is unclear what the note references or doesn’t from my research with Cavallo et al. But I believe our work suggests the value for the “elasticity of import prices to tariffs” should be close to 1. If that value were used, rather than 0.25, I believe their calculation of reciprocal tariffs would be lower by a factor of four.

My last week serving at Treasury and having this view when leaving work each night. Gonna miss it…

Just back from the 5th meeting of the US-China Financial Working Group in Shanghai.

I look forward to discussing Ukraine macro on Tuesday, following my trip last week to Kyiv.