Brian Levitt

Throughout 2025, there were clear storylines that captivated our attention: The question of Federal Reserve independence, the dominance of the Magnificent 7, and the trajectory of rates, to name a few. But the numbers don’t always match the narratives. In his final Above the Noise of 2025, Brian Levitt, our Chief Global Market Strategist, focuses on some of these themes. • Investors have been told to worry about Kevin Hassett becoming Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, because he’d be the first to come directly from a senior White House position without prior service as a Fed governor. But the market doesn’t appear particularly concerned about that possibility. • Many assume that the market’s success hinges on the Magnificent 7 stocks, but that narrative doesn’t match the numbers. Five of these stocks lagged the S&P 500 so far this year. Market strength appears far broader than the story suggests. • Will Fed rate cuts cause mortgage rates to fall? Many assume so, but when we compare the historical relationship between the fed funds, US 10-year Treasury, and mortgage rates, the math suggests that mortgages could stay over 6%. Get more in the latest edition of #AbovetheNoise. inves.co/3Y9U0Ze

In honor of Thanksgiving and the end-of-year holiday season, I like to reflect on what I’m thankful for. Let’s turn down the volume of our fear-inducing 24-hour news cycle and instead focus on some good news. Here are 10 things that investors can be thankful for this year. inves.co/49ZEupZ

Credit card delinquencies: As US inflation has generally moderated, the rate of growth in credit card delinquencies has also flatlined. Get more in the latest edition of Above The Noise. ⬇️ inves.co/4qphS7N

Market environment: With surging investment in AI and interest rate cuts on the horizon, the backdrop for risk assets looks promising.

It’s hard to escape the persistent talk of an “AI bubble,” but there are some key differences between today’s artificial intelligence spending and the tech bubble of the late 1990s.

Does the surge in gold prices mean that investors are wary about US institutions? I don’t believe that’s the case. Gold prices have been rising due to a mix of macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, and broader market behavior suggests that investors haven’t lost confidence in US institutions. inves.co/4gFnTJ7

How do stocks respond to rate cuts? That’s highly dependent on the economy at the time of the cut. If the current environment continues to resemble past non-recessionary rate-cut cycles, then history suggests that stocks could continue to perform well.

Being a market strategist in 2025 means becoming accustomed to an onslaught of issues: tariffs, Federal Reserve independence, fiscal deficits, valuations… Fortunately, stock market gains have carried on. In this edition of Above the Noise, I focus on a few issues to watch.

Initial public offerings (IPOs) have been picking up. Get more in my latest edition of #AbovetheNoise ⬇️ inves.co/47LXEOD

Among the best performing asset classes during periods of US dollar decline are — not surprisingly — emerging market and developed market stocks as well as commodities and non-US bonds.

Despite controversies over tariffs, fiscal bills, and revised job numbers, the US economy has continued to show resilience. Some takeaways from this month’s Above the Noise:

I’m a pessimist when it comes to my daily commute, the line at my favorite lunch spot, or my sports allegiances. But when it comes to my view of society’s ability to overcome challenges and build a better future… I’m an optimist. Here’s why I look on the bright side when others are touting worst-case scenarios. Read the latest edition of #AbovetheNoise. 👉 inves.co/3GkBEz8

Get the details in this month’s #AbovetheNoise. inves.co/4k3rgKM

The Fed is in a difficult position: Tariffs are expected to slow economic growth while pushing prices higher, at least in the short term.

The market’s back in positive territory for the year, but will that last? Here’s my perspective on that and Treasuries, tariffs, debt, and the Federal Reserve (Fed)