Brian Caffrey

@abcampbell Got tulips?

we gotta fix the qualified investor thing regulators’ hearts are in right place but the best laid plans of mice and men

@LyleHender56329 @dampedspring That’s my point. They can do catastrophic damage to the strait before all allies etc do anything. That impacts global trade far more than any military victory. Takes them down as well, but they don’t care. We’re not dealing with rational players

@BrianVCaffrey @dampedspring How much longer do you think they could control the strait with every country in the region and western hemisphere working against them?

The U.S. position hasn't changed. The trick isn't figuring out the U.S. and Israeli position it's whether a durable deal that completely emasculates Iran will be agreed to by Iran.

@DsrPrivate True, but what's a little manipulation among friends. I hope that doesn't exist..

@_Dogs_family WTF - Show the after pics

Brighter days ahead!✨️

@TFTC21 Japan subsidies to citizens will happen here, right?

Dow Chemical just doubled their polyethylene price increase, from $0.15/lb to $0.30/lb, effective April 1st. That's roughly a 60% price hike on the most widely used plastic on Earth. LyondellBasell has gone even further, $0.35/lb in cumulative increases through May. Polyethylene is in your packaging, your water bottles, your grocery bags, your construction materials, your medical supplies. About 50% of global production capacity is now either offline or feedstock-constrained because of the Hormuz crisis. This is how a war in the Middle East shows up at your grocery store. Energy costs don't stay in the energy sector. They flow through everything you buy.

@agnostoxxx cruel

Even the algos are tired from all this nonsense 🥹

@DsrPrivate Way out on a limb with this thesis - negotiations continue till mid-terms with lackeys, miraculous peace ensues prior to elections, Repubs win, uneasy peace in Iran but not our prob anymore..cynical, but possible

@DsrPrivate Are you chasing 6700 and 4.1%?

@MebFaber We're next door in Spain

I asked ChatGPT, Gemini, and Grok where my family should consider moving for 3-6 months and all three said the same thing.... Portugal?!

@DsrPrivate Maybe I’m too jaded, but I ignore everything he says and certainly don’t make a buy/sell based on anything he says. If anything, they are contra signals to be faded. IMHO

@MalikAlyza tawny

I fostered a litter of five, and this little shit is the only one that didn’t get adopted 😢 so it looks like he’s staying here, never mind that I have eight others 🤣� Anyway I’m really stuck on a name for him. Nothing seems to fit. Or maybe I’m procrastinating because I’m in denial that he’s really mine now LOL I’d love suggestions. I have two other orange cats, Reggie and Charlie, and they are super sweet. Not this one lol. I’ve had rowdy kittens all my life but none quite as challenging as this baby 🥴 He’s cute though. Yes I know. ♥️

@dampedspring @scrappyabs Gotcha. Thanks

@BrianVCaffrey @scrappyabs Nothing formal. In private twitter I get asked questions on local implementation and Daniel, me, and relevant locals crowdsource and brainstorm

Dampedspring.com offers three products that our clients value. Happy to discuss which product is best for you. Discounts available for multiple product packages. DS Read/Alpha. Our flagship macro economic research and trading strategy offering. We are excited to be adding some US single name and sector equity and credit coverage for 2026 DSMMA. Offering top quality technical and systematic analysis of short term markets while also providing its own take on longer term investing. It's designed for traders DSData. this is a true diamond in the rough. We offer high quality data driven answers to complex client questions as if you hired a top tier quantitative data driven research analyst but at 1/100 of the cost. Chat GPT and Grok can't compare with our offering and the cost is about the same. We have limited capacity but would love to help you up your game. Of course I will continue to offer free content here and on the blog app but if you want to seriously up your game join us.

@dampedspring @scrappyabs Andy, can you introduce me to the expat group you mention? @scrappyabs I'm in Spain and have been a member of DampedSpring both here and in the US. IBKR makes it very easy to follow along. Ping me if you need. Where are you located?

@scrappyabs Have some happy clients in that situation. Takes a bit of work that you probably already understand. But group helps each other

@DsrPrivate @Jimmyjude13 @DanielSimonyi @NikLentz Slainte

@StaniKulechov Trustless ftw

Earlier today, a user attempted to buy AAVE using $50M USDT through the Aave interface. Given the unusually large size of the single order, the Aave interface, like most trading interfaces, warned the user about extraordinary slippage and required confirmation via a checkbox. The user confirmed the warning on their mobile device and proceeded with the swap, accepting the high slippage, which ultimately resulted in receiving only 324 AAVE in return. The transaction could not be moved forward without the user explicitly accepting the risk through the confirmation checkbox. The CoW Swap routers functioned as intended, and the integration followed standard industry practices. However, while the user was able to proceed with the swap, the final outcome was clearly far from optimal. Events like this do occur in DeFi, but the scale of this transaction was significantly larger than what is typically seen in the space. We sympathize with the user and will try to make a contact with the user and we will return $600K in fees collected from the transaction. The key takeaway is that while DeFi should remain open and permissionless, allowing users to perform transactions freely, there are additional guardrails the industry can build to better protect users. Our team will be investigating ways to improve these safeguards going forward.

@DsrPrivate Forget AGI guys, PRT (Propaganda Replaces Truth) is here

The Strait of Hormuz has been closed for eight days. Most people think this is about oil. It isn’t. It’s about what oil becomes. Around 92% of the world’s sulfur is produced as a byproduct of refining oil and natural gas. When the Strait of Hormuz shuts down, the world doesn’t just lose 20 million barrels of crude per day. It loses the feedstock for sulfuric acid — the most produced chemical on Earth. Sulfuric acid is how we extract copper. It’s how we extract cobalt. Without it, you can’t manufacture transformers, EV batteries, or the electronic substrates inside every data center on the planet. One chemical. From one feedstock. Moving through one chokepoint. And the cascade doesn’t stop there. About 30% of Taiwan’s liquefied natural gas from Qatar passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Taiwan reportedly holds about 11 days of reserves. Now consider this: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) produces around 90% of the world’s advanced chips and consumes 8.9% of Taiwan’s total electricity. No gas → no power → no chips. Then comes food. Roughly 33% of the world’s nitrogen fertilizer feedstock also moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Synthetic nitrogen fertilizers support the agriculture that feeds billions. In fact, about half of all humans alive today depend on food made possible by synthetic nitrogen. So this isn’t just about energy. It’s about sulfur, semiconductors, and food. Three critical supply chains. One 21-nautical-mile chokepoint. And no domestic alternatives at global scale.

@TiltFolio @dampedspring No VEA?

@dampedspring You're describing a similar framework to what we've built. TiltFolio Balanced = similar to $ALLW TiltFolio Adaptive = similar to $HFGM Based on historical results, such an allocation outperforms effectively everything else. Similar idea to Bridgewater, as you know.

What's wrong with 100% $ALLW and 30% $HFGM And chill?

@thaAdamLittle Have you already looked at Oracle ?

Was mucking around with a RepVue Data powered MCP within Claude - needless to say - mind blowing... The initial result a short 🧵 on $CRM / Agentforce related qualitative commentary from the field... What should we look at next?