Brighter Data

$BTC Some @BrighterData statistics are lining up nicely with the plan I shared in the quoted post for the lower timeframe range. We can see that the current monthly low was put in quite early: 79.5% of months put in their first pivot later than 22:00 UTC on the first trading day of the month. This means that often times, lows (or highs) that are put in this early get taken out. This statistic supports the mean-reversion play I mapped out yesterday. The monthly low is just below the middle of the range while price is moving to the range high and towards that massive 74k resistance that we discussed yesterday. So this is one of those cases where you have a good combination between simple TA (range) + statistics (timing of the low) that gives extra confluence. Invalidation of this idea would be claiming 74k or putting in a monthly high after the 15th of March. This is because it would be a 2.2% occurrence for price to put in a monthly high after the 15th, followed by a move to take out the monthly low (or vice versa). We can see that here: You can read the quoted post for additional context, but in case you want the TL;DR, here is a screenshot of the most important snippet: