Martead Brin

Noticeable from the Genesis Ch 11 bankruptcy protection creditor list is VanEck's New Finance Income Fund. Claim of $53M. Fund sought high-yield income exposure in crypto lending. Got $35M commitment from Fairfax county pension plan back in July 2022. bloomberg.com/press-releases...

Another way to view the change in money supply and its effect on #BTC B performance. For Global M2, pulling US, EU, Japan & China data converted to USD.

#BTC B vs some traditional assets and a bucket of high beta plays over the last month. High beta coming in hot to start the year, bitcoin miner etf up over 100%. Bitcoin still acting as beta/risk with US dollar weakening so far.

#BTC B still tracking fairly close to net liquidity.

Let's say deep economic contraction is coming over the next year. Profits fall, UE rising, ISM PM goes sub 40, equities fall further. #BTC B has not been immune to these cycles before. What's best case that bitcoin holds up?

Small issue on this one with discount calculation. Correct GBTC premium/discount chart here. Same trend/story. Discount at 38.61%. Moved 5.62% on Monday.

Monday saw largest 1-day positive change in GBTC discount since July 2021. Likely interest to bid GBTC and short #BTC B futures to capture potential spread/ possibility of GBTC discount closing.

Another useful data driven way to think about it twitter.com/MichaelKantro/... © Kantro @MichaelKantro • 1/8/23 The #HOPE cycle is moving along in order. How much economic pain will investors celebrate with the backward-looking focus of Fed policy?

Lots of great data + analysis pointing to higher probability of serious recession/ economic pain coming 2H2023 or early 2024. One of those being 3M10Y inversion curve that happened back in October. Higher probability of recession 12-18 months after inversion.

#BTC B mostly correlated with with high yield corporate debt, small cap and growth stocks in 2022. twitter.com/TimmerFidelity... Er Jurrien Timmer & @Timme..: 1/9/23 To understand just how difficult it was to find a place to hide in the markets last year,

Days it takes for #bitcoin B price to recover back to peak across cycles. Base case is a 2013-2015 like market in current liquidity and macro conditions. twitter.com/samjrule/statu...

#BTC B price rallies from new lows continue to get weaker.

A bonus, SPX fair value bands from @maxanderson based on @42macroDDale Net Liquidity Model showing overall liquidity drain continuing.

Four #bitcoin B market dynamics I like to track across global M2, global central bank assets, VIX and DXY. All unfavorable or more "bearish".

Maybe better to compare this one to annual growth. Global central bank assets vs #BTC B price twitter.com/samjrule/statu...

Do you count exchange users as adoption? People who leave BTC on exchanges, don't self custody, never used on-chain transaction or used lightning, etc. Should GBTC and ETF holders be separate too? Feels like there should be multiple adoption curves twitter.com/woonomic/statu...

Really yet to see a significant drawdown in #BTC B hash rate or difficulty (from local highs) apart from China mining ban.

Major tech drawdowns from ATH catching up to #BTC B throughout December. twitter.com/samjrule/statu...

#BTC # and DXY annual change.

Address data can be messy when estimating current size and growth of user adoption. Glassnode's estimated entities is another view of adoption. Around 33M #Bitcoin B entities today growing at 17% this year.