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Burçin Sezer
@BurcinSezer13
eğilmem kırılırım. Atatürk kırmızı çizgim.
Kabuğuna çekildi Katılım Kasım 2022
186 Takip Edilen74 Takipçiler
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🇮🇱🇹🇷My thoughts on Israel-Turkey fight on Twitter:
To start with the conclusion: no, there won't be a direct military confrontation between Israel and Turkey. It is all talk: loud in rhetoric, quiet in substance.
For both leaderships, a heated external rivalry is the ultimate political gift. What we see is just the perfect utilisation of it from both Ankara and Tel Aviv.
President Erdoğan has long mastered the art of using the Palestinian cause to consolidate his conservative & religious base. By framing Israel as an existential threat to Turkey, he shifts the domestic focus away from economic woes (like the 2026 bread price hikes) and toward a "national survival" narrative.
For Tel Aviv it is the same: Israeli leadership uses Turkey’s rhetoric to justify a permanent state of high-alert. By painting Turkey as a "sophisticated and dangerous" successor to Iran's regional influence, they maintain a "rally around the flag" effect, ensuring that the electorate remains focused on external threats rather than internal political divisions.
At the same time, Netanyahu needs another "external threat" to avoid judicial persecution for corruption. No better "enemy" than Turkey in this.
These verbal volleys we have been experiencing on twitter are designed for voters in Istanbul and Tel Aviv, not for generals in a war room.
Military impact: Modern warfare between two major, non-adjacent powers like Turkey and Israel makes no strategic sense. Any direct military engagement would require long-range operations across multiple sovereign territories or maritime escalation in the Eastern Mediterranean both highly escalatory and logistically complex. Not gonna happen.
More importantly, Turkey is a member of NATO. While NATO would not automatically defend Turkey in an offensive war, any conflict involving a NATO member and Israel would create an unprecedented crisis for Western security architecture. The United States, Israel’s primary ally and NATO’s leading power, would actively work to prevent such a scenario.
In terms of economic co-operation: Turkey and Israel are still big trading partners, despite everything. Current 2026 data shows a suspicious, multi-hundred-percent spike in Turkish exports to the Palestinian Authority.
Yep, it is just a "paperwork pivot". Turkish steel, cement, and electrical goods are being shipped to Palestinian destinations but are functionally integrated into the broader Israeli market.
Furthermore, trade via third countries like Greece and Romania has flourished. While politicians from both countries shout at microphones and post tweets, the merchant fleets are quietly keeping the regional economy afloat.
To summarize: Turkey and Israel are like two actors in a high-stakes drama. They need each other to play the villain so they can remain the heroes of their own domestic stories.
As long as the trade ships (even the "dark" ones) keep sailing and the NATO flag keeps flying over Ankara, a direct war remains a fantasy.
Thank you for your attention to this matter.

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