Corey Hoffstein 🏴‍☠️

Steven Bartlett says a few glasses of wine ruined the next 3 days of his life “It's one of those areas where you don't understand the hidden cost until you really give it up for a while. I stopped drinking at 30 years old. I'm now 33. When I was 31, I thought, I'll have a drink again because now I could really A/B test it. I had a year of not drinking, decided to have a drink again” “It ruined three days of my life. I had a couple of glasses of wine, didn't get drunk. It ruined three days of my life because of the domino effect it caused” “I got worse sleep that night, and then because I got worse sleep that night, I ate more poorly the next day because my dopamine system or whatever, the cortisol system was all messed up. I podcasted worse. I didn't go to the gym that day or the day after because I felt really bad. I then slept worse, and I could track all of this on my Whoop”

The discount rate is next to meaningless for companies whose future cash flows/earnings are highly uncertain. The long duration asset argument is one of those things that sounds reasonable in theory, but falls apart when you think about it in reality. This is why high growth stocks are a lot less interest rate sensitive, as we've seen since 2022. A marginally higher or lower growth trajectory swamps changes in the discount rate. The general rule is the more predictable and low-variance the cash flows, the more interest rates matter. When ppl talk about equities with highly uncertain earnings forecasts as long duration assets, it's a sign of disqualifyingly bad analysis and they lose all credibility.