Zephry
59 posts
"memory tax is effectively getting framed as Nvidia tax"
Well, 35%-40% of the total CAPEX will be spent on memory
A large chunk of CAPEX revisions by hyperscalers is due to higher memory prices, not just to build more capacity
Jukan@jukan05
So memory tax is effectively getting framed as Nvidia tax… If that’s the case, then the stock price action inevitably gets tied to the same framework as well.
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IT'S OVER
Jukan@jukan05
CHINA CONSIDERS RESTRICTING OVERSEAS ACCESS TO CUTTING-EDGE AI MODELS China’s Ministry of Commerce has led meetings over the past month with major AI companies, including Alibaba, ByteDance, and Z.ai, to discuss measures that would restrict overseas access to cutting-edge AI models, including models that have not yet been released. The discussions reportedly include not only closed-source models but also open-weight models. However, the scope of application is still under debate, and the rules may ultimately apply only to future frontier models. Officials have also discussed designating the leakage or theft of proprietary AI technologies as a national security crime, with stronger penalties, as well as restricting the types of foreign capital that can invest in Chinese AI startups. The backdrop is the U.S. move to strengthen export controls on AI models, along with national security concerns over cutting-edge models that could possess advanced cyberattack capabilities. Chinese authorities are reportedly concerned that advanced U.S. cybersecurity AI models could be used to exploit vulnerabilities in Chinese software. Since the beginning of this year, China has continued to tighten measures to prevent AI technology from being transferred overseas. Authorities have investigated whether Chinese AI startups that relocated abroad violated export control laws, while also strengthening oversight of overseas transactions involving Chinese investors, technology, data, and national security concerns. Future regulations could take the form of a tiered framework based on technological capability. Basic open-source AI models may be managed through a filing system, high-performance models may be subject to security reviews, and the most sensitive frontier models may be banned from public release or restricted to use within China.
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"Nobody is going to pay 5,000% higher price for 2% more performance in applications where 95% of the value is captured by “good enough”.
The power law doesn’t apply to farming, or road maintenance, or cooking dinner for a family of four, or a million other things."
Object Zero@Object_Zero_
Chamath is one of the few people in the AI industry who seems to understand that AI products will be bought for their “profitability” and not their “intelligence”. This includes both enterprise and (surprisingly) consumer products. Nobody is going to pay 5,000% higher price for 2% more performance in applications where 95% of the value is captured by “good enough”. The power law doesn’t apply to farming, or road maintenance, or cooking dinner for a family of four, or a million other things. In some places the edge cases capture all the value, art, sport, software, etc. The power law applies in domains where edge cases are 99% of the value or 99% of the liability. But not everything in the world has this topology. This is why classifiers (a control layer) are required for product market fit. The classifier question is often as simple as “is this an edge case?” It wasn’t obvious whether very advanced and sophisticated models would be able to solve simple and easy problems cheaply… So far, they cannot. This makes the more advanced models less valuable, and they’re going to lose a lot of value (prompt traffic) to classifiers as a result. Will monolithic models evolve their own internal classifiers and gain the ability to answer low value questions with low cost responses? Who knows. But they can’t do that today and that changes the shape of what needs to be built. A few are using “adaptive models” which is the first attempt at solving this, but each user has a different classifier curve. So product market fit has a few orthogonal dimensions.
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Zephry retweetledi
Just caught my cat "helping" my teammate take notes in a group meeting—she’s way more focused than half the actual team #WorkFromHomeLife
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Zephry retweetledi
Today I pushed past my comfort zone to nail that hard skill I’ve been avoiding for months. No shortcuts, just grit u0026 progress. Every small win is a step up.
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Zephry retweetledi
“Last lecture done, cap and gown on—off to write the next chapter, but never forget the ones who walked this path with me. #Graduation2024”，
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Zephry retweetledi
[Just wrapped up a quick day trip to the lake! Sunsets, smooth sailing and zero delays — perfect way to beat the work week blues. ]，
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