Futuros Imperfeitos
512 posts
@Caio_Jobim
Um lance de dados jamais abolirá o acaso: política, geopolítica e tecnologia pela lente dos mercados preditivos.
Neymar nos últimos 17 jogos meteu 11 gols e fez 4 assistências. Mas não merece ir pra Copa não. Quem merece é o Gabriel Sara.
There's a new @Polymarket market on whether Neymar makes Brazil's World Cup squad — and the odds haven't converged with the older one yet. That gap is an opportunity, regardless of which side you're on. "Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?" prices Yes at 39¢. "2026 FIFA World Cup: Player to make Brazil Squad" prices the same Yes at 44¢. A 5-point spread on the same underlying event. The reason is liquidity. The main market has $ 583K in volume. The new one has $4.3K. New markets with thin liquidity are still in price discovery. That's exactly where mispricings live. The spread creates different entries for different convictions. Believers get Yes cheaper on the main market — 39¢ vs. 44¢. Skeptics get No cheaper on the new one — 56¢ vs. 61¢. The pessimism already priced into the mature market hasn't reached the new one yet. The gap between the two markets is a window where information asymmetry hasn't been arbitraged away. That won't last. 🎲 polymarket.com/event/2026-fif…
Há um novo mercado sobre a convocação ou não de Neymar para a Copa do Mundo. As odds ainda não convergiram para os mesmos valores e a diferença oferece uma oportunidade para quem quiser arriscar um palpite, independentemente de acreditar no Sim ou no Não. 🧵 polymarket.com/event/2026-fif…
Our most frequently asked question right now: "If oil prices are above $100/barrel and the Iran War isn't over, why are stocks at record highs?" The answer to this question is simple. The AI Revolution has simply become so large, that investors are viewing everything else as "noise." Over the last few months, as large cap technology stocks traded flat then sharply lower amid the Iran War, the AI narrative only grew. The Magnificent 7 companies are set to invest over $600 BILLION in AI this year alone. And, as broader markets swept tech giants like Nvidia and Alphabet lower, these stocks reached their cheapest Forward P/E levels since 2019. At the March 30th bottom, the S&P 500 Information Technology index was trading at just a 4% Forward P/E premium to the S&P 500, the lowest since January 2019. Tech stocks became cheaper than the average S&P 500 stock for the first time since 2017. Nvidia, for example, is now trading at just a ~26x Forward P/E multiple, even as it is back at record highs. Walmart? 43x. Costco? 46x. The reality is that many large cap technology stocks are merely getting cheaper as they go up. And when they go down, they become remarkably cheap. We are in the biggest technological revolution in modern history, and even $100 oil, a 4.40% 10Y Yield, and rate cuts priced out until 2027 are unable to derail the train. Asset owners will continue to win.
