@edhodgsoned Great example here of what good polling looks like - public opinion is often nuanced and good questions will help convey this!
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Caleb Rhys Walker
378 posts
Caleb Rhys Walker
@CalebRhysWalker
Student, aspiring policymaker, Substack writer, supporter of building things
South East, England Katılım Ocak 2021
274 Takip Edilen64 Takipçiler
Just a quarter think this should happen immediately - an equally sized group say that the UK should move to recognise Palestinian statehood when Hamas is no longer in control of the Gaza strip
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New polling from over the weekend - by a margin of two to one Britons tend to support recognising a Palestinian state - but there is a pretty big caveat...
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@createstreets Possibly my favourite building in London!
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@edhodgsoned These are great graphs for visualising local councils!
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Expect we will see more and more charts like this by the end of the day - an absolutely totalising rise of Reform in Staffordshire, which has be solidly Conservative for 16 years
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More details and a link to the article in the thread below x.com/calebrhyswalke…
Caleb Rhys Walker@CalebRhysWalker
Thesis: Germany is four years ahead of us The evidence (a thread) - The centre-right party was kicked out of power, recording its lowest vote share in their history of 24%. - They were replaced by the main centre-left party, recording their highest vote share since 2005. 1/
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Interesting to see the Tories picking up on something I noted a few weeks back - our 2024 election looks very similar to Germany’s in 2021. Conservatives will hope that our next General Election looks like the recent German one.
politicshome.com/news/article/u…
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Seeing my article for the Boar as the second result in ‘News’ last night was a pleasant surprise!
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@WarwickBoar @BoarComment Link here: theboar.org/2025/04/reform…
Stay tuned for part 2, being published on Sunday!
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Tried my hand at political sketch-writing in @WarwickBoar this week.
In my article I explain to readers how Rupert Lowe fell out with Nigel Farage, got kicked out of Reform and developed a nastly case of "backbencher complex".
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Taking “the most transparent administration in history” to a whole new level!
The Atlantic@TheAtlantic
American war planning usually takes place in highly secure facilities. But the Trump administration planned its strikes on the Houthis using a group chat—and accidentally included The Atlantic’s editor in chief, @JeffreyGoldberg. theatlantic.com/politics/archi…
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Just submitted my first FOI to the Home Office (asking for data about migrant hotels). An exciting, albeit niche, milestone in my life.
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This is a good decision by the government. The way to build a coalition of support for development is through fair incentive sharing. Now do it for nuclear power plants etc.
thetimes.com/article/
31bc0ca0-c981-43de-8df9-9d8acd7bfadf?shareToken=0525f6fce328b4a20a82a32c4e62a322
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@tcaginfo - The £40bn statistic is from Highways England, Logistics UK and a letter signed by 73 organisations including Morrisons and Asda.
- The length of planning application I refer to includes the DCO and other documents needed in order to be granted planning permission by govt.
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@tcaginfo - I am happy to correct myself. My headline figure of £800 is wrong, the true figure is in fact £1.2 billion, and exemplifies "the costs of the UK’s sclerotic planning system" (FT).
- A crossing downstream of Dartford was proposed in the 1989 'Roads for Prosperity' White Paper.
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Recently it was announced that plans to build a nuclear power plant on the Isle of Anglesey were to be blocked following concerns over impact to the Welsh Language.
This is just one example of Britain being very bad a building things (A brief🧵)
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An update to this story: The FT have suggested today that the real cost is actually £1.2 billion. Not building things like the Lower Thames Crossing is slowing down growth, and making life worse and costing the taxpayer.
Caleb Rhys Walker@CalebRhysWalker
How about the £800 million we have spent on the Lower Thames Crossing, an idea first floated in 1989? That's quite expensive considering that we haven't actually built anything yet, despite an expected boost to the economy of up to £40 billion and reduced traffic at Dartford. 6/
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There are other lessons to be learnt, lessons for tactical voting, for campaign styles, for coalition building which can be learnt from the German 2025 election. More details for all of these things can be found in my article here: open.substack.com/pub/politicson…
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The election provides a model for a potential British 2028/29 election. A damaged incumbent Labour party, a resurgent Tory party (by default rather than popularity), and an insurgent Reform party with key regional strengths is a very possible scenario. 6/
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Thesis: Germany is four years ahead of us
The evidence (a thread)
- The centre-right party was kicked out of power, recording its lowest vote share in their history of 24%.
- They were replaced by the main centre-left party, recording their highest vote share since 2005. 1/
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