New reports that $AMD is scrambling for CW laser supply.
And is negotiating large-scale purchase orders for CW Lasers to ensure its production capacity is not constrained by $NVDA (Trendforce)
Obvious CW laser beneficiaries:
- $SIVE (AMD went to GFS for CPO, Sivers reference laser level)
- $AAOI (Rosenblatt analyst checks)
Lumentum/Coherent are kinda booked out way into 2028 as well.
Lumentum is especially constrained for CW capacity already from existing EML contracts (so they probably are buying from Sumitomo/Furukawa and co).
Maybe Macom and Japanese giants still have spare capacity. (disclosure, own aaoi/sivers).
I predicted this last year and said hyperscalers should go more upstream to secure capacity... at laser levels, epiwafer levels, or even inp substrate levels.
To not get bottlenecked by Nvidia.
Good post, real respect for the disclosure. But your own facts point at Coherent and Lumentum, not the micro-caps. NVIDIA just put ~$2B into each — purchase commitments plus capacity rights — precisely to lock CW supply. A shortage is a pricing-power story for whoever holds capacity. "Booked out into 2028" isn't the bear case for COHR/LITE — it's the bull case.