camelCase
1.4K posts
Something interesting is happening with $BTC... Most of us are familiar with Bitcoin’s clinical market cycles. Historically, bear markets last about 365 days, and by that metric we’re roughly 1/3 in. What’s different this time is speed. Price is dropping faster than usual, 1.25x. Since BTC topped in October, earlier than past cycles, it’s reasonable to expect the bottom to arrive earlier too. My base case: we bottom in August, not Q4. That’s why I’m planning to accumulate between June, August. Part of this is intuition, but the structure supports it. Cycles appear to be shortening. As institutional demand grows, it will increasingly absorb miner and OG selling pressure. When that balance shifts, BTC may start behaving less like a boom-bust asset and more like a traditional risk asset, closer to the S&P 500’s cycle profile. Based on drawdown math, we’re likely 22–30% from the bottom. Historically, smart money builds spot positions in the -40% to -60% range. I don’t expect a -70% drawdown this cycle. I think we’re 20% away from the bear market low, with the bottom forming in Q3. Using the 365-day model, there are 200 days left to a formal bottom. That gives us two paths: • slow sideways chop with a gradual bleed, or • a faster dump that ends the bear cycle early I am betting that we bottom sooner. So I am buying at 69K. 65K. 60K. 55K. 50K. 45K. Don't cry because its over, smile because it happened. Note: In regards to massive swing longs, you will know when I am long.
