Canarinho Finance

@MoneySniperBTC Eu monitoro de perto o mercado deles. Outra dica de conta @nickgerli1

@CanarinhoFNC Loucura total, não imaginava toda essa desvalorização

Another good example explaining why real estate can’t act as an inflation hedge when demand collapse

@MoneySniperBTC Impressionante, ne. Segue essa conta. Ele mostra bem a situação do Real Estate nos EUA. Especialmente o comercial. É por todo o lado que isso ta ocorrendo

@CanarinhoFNC Cacetada em… Qual principal razão? Impostos locais?

@Kacper_PK_CH Biggest drop since ATH

KOSPI - South Korea Just wow. It was fail on news after all. We’ll see how $EWY trades in US later, but likely will cover only some of the short, and roll the rest of the puts. Wild times.

Biggest drop since ATH Very curious to see how it spreads to other stock markets

@otesoureir92081 Belo call

🚨🚨🚨ja perdi as contas de quantos circuit breakers tivemos na Coreia nas ultimas 3 semanas, Asia abrindo novamente derretendo. Ja postei aqui anteriormente sobre as semelhanças no M formado no RSI mensal nas bolsas asiáticas com o S&P, no #Crash em 2008 foi exatamente assim, 40 a 60 dias antes das correções maiores do S&P, a Asia começou as suas antes. Logo veremos o mesmo movimento nas Mag 7. Questão de dias agora pessoal! Estamos perto!!! Grupo Gratuito👇🏻👇🏻 t.me/+fgltoRFaPw1lZ…

@quietshare Moradia e alimentação sao 36% do IPCA Porém penso que esses dois itens sao 80% ou mais da vida das pessoas

@CanarinhoFNC Posso estar errado ou desatualizado, mas na última vez que conferi os bens de consumo básico, os que mais afetam as classes baixas, representam menos de 40% no cálculo do IPCA.

Once a month I do a big supermarket run like this for my family of four. It’s not just the weekly food. It includes hygiene and cleaning products too. Pre-COVID, a cart like this cost me at most R$700. In 2021 it hit R$800. In 2024 I remember when it crossed R$1,000. Today it came in at R$1,171.83, basically touching R$1,200. That’s a 67.4% increase in my real supermarket inflation. Meanwhile the official Brazilian government figure (IPCA) for the same period sits at 43.8%. Same story in the US. Official numbers just don’t match what people are actually paying at the checkout. I’m not claiming fraud. I’m saying the methodologies under-weight the items that matter most to ordinary families, whether by design or not.

@observerofveil We can smell it in the air

@CanarinhoFNC It's getting close to entering medium term downtrend. Wow

Circuit Breaker for Kospi in just minutes of the session. Wild. Let’s see how it opens.

@zerohedge So they will sell US T-Notes to offset the revenue loss?

Japan’s Takaichi to Order Food Tax Cut to 1%, Reports Say

@drewcrawford_ Very accurate!

Brazil runs on two calendars, and most foreign buyers only know one of them. The one everyone knows is the election. First round October 4th, runoff October 25th, new president sworn in January 5th. The one nobody tells you about is what happens to Brazilian business in between. From about the middle of December, decisions stop getting made. Nothing formally closes. People are simply not in the room, and anything that needs a signature waits. It does not really start again until after Carnival. Carnival 2027 lands on February 9th, which is early for once, so the gap is shorter than most years. It still eats the better part of two months. Now put a third date next to those. Brazilian companies close their audited books on December 31st. A deal signed in the first quarter is looking at numbers that just closed. A deal signed in the autumn is reading a year that ended nine months ago. So the same decision, made ten weeks apart, lands in two different worlds. Start a process now and you work through August and September, carry it through the vote, and sign in the first quarter against fresh books. Start it the day after the runoff and you lose November and December, restart after Carnival, and sign in the back half of 2027. The election takes one day. The calendar underneath it takes the rest. I wrote about what that means for anyone still deciding in the article below... x.com/drewcrawford_/…

This will act as a leading indicator for the whole tech complex. The morning we wake up and Kospi closed like in a Black Mondey Event, well this may be quite a trigger.

@Mestre_Don Exatamente

@CanarinhoFNC O incentivo do governo é de sempre subestimar a inflação, no mundo todo, já que ele tem obrigações indexadas. Tem milhares de técnicas pra isso, tirar itens da cesta, não contar itens caros porque o "consumo mudou", subsídios e preços administrados etc.

Tks. I am brazilian and 45 yo. I am used to fiscal problems and know how to handle it since I was born! Inflation and populism is part of our everyday routine down here. In the other hand, maybe your european followers were spoiled by their glorious times, hence they may be suffering kind of a traumatic event since the greek event. Future generations will be different up there!

@CanarinhoFNC I admire anyone who I can have a calm conversation with about this topic, even when they disagree. My deep respect and admiration go to you!

True that the repeated carve-outs (especially for Greek shipping) have repeatedly diluted the impact of the sanctions. But kicking a member state out isn’t realistic and would create bigger problems than it solves. The actual fix is ending the unanimity requirement for sanctions packages so one country’s oligarchs can’t hold the entire process hostage. Until that changes, this will keep happening

High interest rate environments, and especially rising ones, are pure poison for speculative assets like the KOSPI, tech, and crypto. Higher rates jack up discount rates on future cash flows, crush valuations, and make “safe” alternatives suddenly look a lot more appealing. This unwind was always just a matter of time.

As predicted... Since my pulchritudinous call earlier this month, the KOSPI is down 30% and likely to head much lower over time. Guess who’s next? T…….

@GeraisEnquetes Acho que ele nao comente fraude, mas os indices de inflacao ao redor do mundo sao desenhados para parecerem mais baixos, dando menos peso para alimento, moradia e energia do que deveriam dar

@CanarinhoFNC IPCA é a inflação paz e amor do Porchman. Fraude completa.

@robin_j_brooks Agreed

@CanarinhoFNC I don't think ending the Euro is a big disaster. You can do common foreign policy, defense and all kinds of other stuff without a single currency. Just look at Denmark or Sweden. There would be debt crises, but those would be over quickly and devaluations would ensure growth...

@robin_j_brooks It is really hard to find a way out

@CanarinhoFNC You're right about the unanimity requirement, but that is a very tricky issue because of differential debt levels. Basically, without unanimity, Spain, Greece, France and Italy will push for more and more Euro bonds because Northern Europe lost its veto. The Euro is broken...

@opapoeconomico @business @BrazilJournal 😂😂😂

@CanarinhoFNC O tdah tem que servir para algo. Alô, @business contrata noix, meu! @BrazilJournal.

O maior credor dos EUA tem US$ 1,14 trilhão em títulos americanos. E pode ser forçado a vender. Peter Schiff montou a tese: o Japão é a agulha que estoura a bolha americana. Big Techs queimando caixa em IA. Bonds no maior juro em 20 anos. Petróleo pressionando inflação. Fui checar cada número dele. A maioria bate. Alguns são piores. Thread — e por que a conta chega em Brasília