Candice

The conflict is impacting Africa through multiple channels but the impact is far from uniform. The depth and persistence of the impact will depend on the duration & severity & on each country’s ability to navigate the trade-offs between inflation, growth, & financial stability.

Join me and my @IIF colleagues for the 2026 IIF Global Outlook Forum, taking place on April 15 in Washington, D.C. #IIFinDC

Hidden debt revelations derailed Senegal’s IMF program & weakened sentiment. Political reset focused on fiscal consolidation and governance reforms, but debt pressures remain high. Scenario analysis shows debt will take time to reach sustainable levels if fiscal plans falter.

Net nonresident capital flows in our 8 African country universe is expected to increase from $48bn in ‘23 to $72bn in ‘26, led by South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and Morocco. Flows will be driven by FDI, but policy reforms in some economies raises portfolio debt.

NAS100 •Macro eased last week — yields softened, USD momentum cooled, volatility slowed •That shift was enough for weekly demand to hold & open the door for continuation •From here, the path depends on this week’s data but bias stays tilted to the upside unless yields spike

Engaged discussion at the IMF meetings with the Bank of Ghana Governor on sustaining macro stability and growth in Ghana @IMFNews @vbonifacio28

Kenya's C/A has always been cushioned by diaspora remittances. This is expected to continue to provide much needed support. But is it going to place additional strain on the FX reserves and the KES? Probably!

🔭 Views on Africa: @Candice_IIF shares #macroeconomic projections for the South African economy, noting improved investor sentiment in light of the recent formation of a more cohesive and diversified government arrangement. Read More: ow.ly/wUrj50UR3Ek

ICYMI: Economist @Candice_IIF shares in a new note: as in most countries, the biggest risk to the South African #economicoutlook is uncertainty around U.S. #policy under President Trump, but we can expect a recovery in the #ZAR #exchangerate. Read Now: ow.ly/i7z050UR3P4

(2/2) Better fundamentals combined with low inflation and looser monetary policy have enhanced the outlook for economic growth and capital flows to South Africa @IIF @IMFNews @WorldBankAfrica @AfDB_Group @TheEconomist For more, go to: iif.com

A week after the elections, it is not clear if South Africa will have a government of national unity or a minority government, and who will be part of it, writes @AdriaanBasson brnw.ch/21wKvn3

@News24 @DawieScholtz @MMkhabel How can we register for this?

Low voter turnout played a big role in this year's election. Find out why and how different demographics voted in this week's Friday Briefing which features analysis from @DawieScholtz, Wits' Matlala Setlhalogile and @MMkhabel.

Join us at @IIF's 2024 Global Outlook Forum to discuss the shifting global geopolitical and economic landscape. Make key business connections and hear from financial industry leaders. Don’t miss out: bit.ly/2024IIFGlobalO… #IIFinDC

After the news about Lady R settled, investors flocked back to South African debt instruments. This helped support the ZAR somewhat and lends support to external balances.

Despite a relatively hawkish tone, the CBN raised rates by just 25 bps to 18.75% . This is insufficient given the level of inflationary pressures that are building up. More needs to be done to stabilize the NGN and prices.

Here's @Eskom_SA's estimate of how much rooftop solar PV has been added (cumulatively) in South Africa. It reduce the residual load that Eskom has to meet during the day, meaning less load shedding and more available energy to restore its pumped hydro and diesel storage.

The @SAReserveBank doves won in a 3-2 split vote to keep rates on hold at 8.25%. Q2 inflation came in lower than the projected, likely swinging today's decision. This should be the end of the hiking cycle unless significant risks to the ZAR materialize.

BREAKING | Putin will not be attending BRICS summit in SA 'by mutual agreement' fal.cn/3A0u5

The ZAR regained good ground over the past week. But inflation expectations remain far from target and chances of further tightening by the Fed makes the case for one more 25 bps hike at this week's @SAReserveBank MPC meeting.