Capital Economics Europe

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Capital Economics Europe

Capital Economics Europe

@CapEconEurope

Insights and research on the European economy from Capital Economics. Subscribe: https://t.co/NFLsMDj5xn Follow our other accounts: https://t.co/DqFuVhmuN4

Europe Katılım Mayıs 2015
356 Takip Edilen7.4K Takipçiler
Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
Despite energy price caps and direct support for households, we think euro-zone private consumption will fall further than most anticipate in the coming months, and we expect investment and exports to fall too. Read more here: capitaleconomics.com/publications/e…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
The UK government has not been alone in announcing new fiscal measures. The French government’s plan to stabilise the budget deficit at 5% of GDP next year looks optimistic. However, in contrast, French policymakers also emphasised the importance of medium-term fiscal prudence.
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
For most major euro-zone countries the terms of trade shock from higher gas prices this year will be bigger than both the 1974 and 1979 oil shocks. How this plays out in the coming months depends on many factors. Read more here: capitaleconomics.com/publications/e…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
A chunky rise in euro-zone GDP in Q2 was accompanied by a further increase in employment. But a combination of high inflation, rising interest rates and the energy crisis will push the economy into recession before the end of this year. capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
The biggest problem in Europe’s energy markets is the reduction in Russia’s gas exports. But extreme weather conditions are compounding the problem by making life difficult for nuclear, hydro and coal-fired power plants. Read more here: capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
We think the euro-zone will soon fall into recession as high inflation, tighter monetary policy and weak global growth take their toll. While the economy should recover next year, the rebound will be held back by a lack of policy support. Read more here: capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
The fall in the Rhine’s water level is a small problem for German industry compared to the gas crisis, or indeed the recent shortage of semiconductors. If it persists until December it could subtract 0.2ppts from GDP in Q3 and Q4. capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
An end to Russian gas exports to Europe would prompt us to forecast a deeper recession in the euro-zone this winter than we currently anticipate. The hit would come partly through higher inflation and partly through gas rationing. capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
The sharp fall in euro-zone retail sales in June means sales contracted in Q2 as a whole. Final PMI surveys point to price pressures continuing to intensify and demand softening, we think household spending will struggle over the coming months. capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
Final inflation data for June confirm that price pressures are very strong. Whether or not the ECB hikes by 50bp on Thursday, we think it will be the beginning of an aggressive 12 months of tightening. Read more here: capitaleconomics.com/clients/public…
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Capital Economics Europe
Capital Economics Europe@CapEconEurope·
If the return of political instability in Italy leads to an early election, government bond spreads are likely to widen, whether or not the ECB agrees the details of the Transmission Protection Mechanism next week. capitaleconomics.com/publications/e…
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