CapX

Simply changing Labour's leader won't change the underlying dynamics On this week's episode of The Capitalist, chief economist of Peel Hunt @KallumPickering talks bond markets and leadership battles with @marcsidwell

At one point this morning, it looked like Wes Streeting had bottled it. But the Grand Young Duke of Ilford North had marched up the hill; it was impossible to march down it again. His resignation letter is a classic of the genre. While not openly launching a leadership challenge – merely calling for the ‘best possible field of candidates’ to stick it to Starmer – it hit the right notes to tickle the bellies of unhappy Labour MPs. But it won't be smooth sailing. One reason why Streeting is so despised by his party members is that he has clearly wanted to be Prime Minister since he was in teens, and has plotted his entire career – Cambridge, National Union of Students, once-safe-seat, leadership challenge – accordingly. ✍️@WTMAtkinson capx.co/wes-streeting-…

A collective howl of despair could be heard throughout the unionist community of Scotland last Friday at the prospect of five more years of SNP rule following the Holyrood elections. And yet amid the gloom, a few shards of sunlight are discernible through the bars. Yes, we are stuck with another half-decade at least of the SNP with the inevitable maladministration and blather about separation that will entail, but the reality, which few seem to appreciate but is clear from a detailed look at the results, is that the union is in no immediate danger. Indeed, there is strong evidence that the SNP is in decline, that there will be no second independence referendum any time soon, and the movement to break up the UK is in serious trouble. ✍️@Pbp19Philip capx.co/the-union-is-s…

The bond market has finally lost patience with Labour. The 10-year gilt yield this week is back above 5% – around 5.09% as I write – its highest since the 2008 financial crisis. The 30-year gilt has touched 5.81%, its highest since 1998. Labour’s credibility is being repriced in real time. And the omens are not good. Investors, like the rest of us, are watching a Prime Minister losing more authority by the day, and succession speculation increasing by the hour, with talk of a more fiscally left-leaning Labour leadership waiting in the wings. ✍️@DamianPudner capx.co/britain-is-in-…

Has the Scottish National Party given up on independence? ✍️@Pbp19Philip capx.co/the-union-is-s…

British politics has become a tedious rodeo of scandal and decline ✍️@WTMAtkinson capx.co/wes-streeting-…

The next signal from the bond market may come not as a warning, but as a punishment ✍️@DamianPudner capx.co/britain-is-in-…

The capital is now the only place where the Conservatives are regaining ground – winning back Westminster, becoming the largest party in Wandsworth and holding off a challenge from Reform in Bexley. Tories were jubilant – with Kemi Badenoch hailing ‘green shoots of Conservative recovery’ – but they shouldn’t be. Overall, their vote share and number of councillors fell. Success in London is a reflection of how different voters here are to their fellow Brits – not of Conservative popularity. But London's upcoming mayoral election in 2028 is an opportunity for the Conservatives. They just need to pick the right candidate. Not an aristocrat for whom politics is a hobby, much like his current pastime of sculpting elephants. Not a man who has to withdraw from the selection process following a groping allegation, to be replaced by a woman whose chief qualification was not being him... ✍️@alysdenby Read more: capx.co/the-tories-can…

The King’s Speech was predictably unimpressive The Government is rudderless and growth remains a distant prospect But bond markets have made themselves clear - better to stick with the devil we know than risk an insurgent left-winger I’m inclined to agree My latest in @CapX👇

It's depressing, but the bond markets have made their preference clear ✍️@jcdinnage capx.co/the-kings-spee…

Delighted to join @marcsidwell and @CapX this week to discuss the economic and political outlook for the UK #labour #ukeconomy #ukmacro #starmer

As @wesstreeting looks set to make his bid for the top job tomorrow, who else could be waiting in the wings? A good moment to revisit this piece for @CapX by @HCH_Hill from last November "...the more you interrogate the possibility, the more plausible it appears. For Miliband to become our next prime minister, two things must happen. First, Keir Starmer must fall. Second, Miliband must win the subsequent leadership contest. Neither of these is a long shot." capx.co/could-ed-milib…

I'm so excited to be starting a new regular column in my old manor @CapX! Local elections show London is worryingly disconnected from rUK. Though the progressive voting bloc is bigger than the right-wing one, it's more divided, offering hope for the Tories - play it cleverly..

London risks becoming its own island of strangers, politically alienated from the rest of Britain – but it also offers the Conservatives an opportunity ✍️@alysdenby Read more: capx.co/the-tories-can…

If we were to bring UK income taxes closer into line with those in Europe’s major economies, it would cost the average taxpayer £1,015 per year. One argument often stated nowadays is that Britain should move towards European-style taxation. But given this cost to the taxpayer, it is certainly not a policy I would advocate. Britain is already a high-spending and high-tax economy, and there is little evidence that persistently higher taxation delivers stronger growth or better public services. ✍️@DrGerardLyons capx.co/the-last-thing…

After a poor set of local election results, the Government has returned to a familiar British political reflex: the ‘reset’. It is a word that sounds decisive, almost therapeutic, signalling that a Prime Minister has learned from their own mistakes and is now freshly aligned with reality. Yet in Westminster, the ‘reset’ is less a moment of renewal than a revealing signal that a government’s authority is under strain, and that events are beginning to run ahead of leadership. ✍️@Matthew__Bowles capx.co/keir-starmer-i…

@jtworr, Reform’s Head of Policy, said in one speech that the politics of the New Right is ‘much less doctrinaire on questions of economic policy than it used to be – say in the era of Reagan and Thatcher, and Blair and Cameron’. The first problem is that refusing to be ‘doctrinaire’ on economics often becomes an excuse for not taking economic questions seriously. There is no virtue in lacking a doctrine on economic policy. One needs a framework through which to judge economic decisions. Without an economic theory, policy becomes driven by polling and populism rather than principle. ✍️@ManiBasharzad capx.co/has-the-right-…

The idea that higher taxes automatically improve public services is for the birds ✍️@DrGerardLyons capx.co/the-last-thing…

'Reset' is the word a government reaches for when it knows the game is up ✍️@Matthew__Bowles capx.co/keir-starmer-i…

The turmoil around Keir Starmer has produced the inevitable Westminster response: talk of a "reset". Yet from John Major to Theresa May, resets rarely signal recovery - more often they mark governments recognising that events are moving beyond their control. Words in @CapX👇