Shipyard Capital

10.6K posts

Shipyard Capital

Shipyard Capital

@CapitalShipyard

Investing is hard

Down the capital stack Katılım Aralık 2019
498 Takip Edilen8.2K Takipçiler
Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
@premortes I don't know enough about this stuff to even know "what" it was that they replaced. Models? Harnesses? Not sure, but sounds like he was floored by how much they saved.
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@premortes·
@CapitalShipyard Aren’t most builds LLM agnostic? You’re using it as CPU/RAM - it’s easy to hot swap between rented and owned LLM compute. Your system lives on the backend you’ve created: long-term memory, ontology, workflows.
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
A friend's fintech biz just ditched whatever enterprise AI they were using and went open source. Wonder how much of that is happening.
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
Wonder how much is competing labs using each other's APIs
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
What is the modal token being used for?
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Saul
Saul@Betta_call_saul·
@CapitalShipyard There is no organic growth and never will be. Their pitch was always to use cash to buy undervalued companies but never have. If they buy a company immediately, a creative to earnings it will be a positive rather than having useless cash on the books.
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
Anyone got a bear case for $PEW?
everyonehatespoetry@everyonehatesp1

$PEW printed Q1 26 results: _Revenue $26.0M (vs consensus $24.5M), +11% YoY, ahead of 2% industry growth _Gross profit $2.8M, +23% YoY _Adj. EBITDA -$2.0M (vs consensus -$2.4M) _Adj. EPS -$0.06 (vs -$0.08) _Bought back $2.4M of stock Normal quarter but what gets very exciting is the commentary. I'd highly encourage listening to the call. I want to highlight two big things. 1 - Massive optionality developing in the legalization of direct shipments of firearms to consumers' homes. Quote from the Q1 26 call: "The ATF has proposed new regulations that would allow certain firearm transfers to occur remotely, with federal background check requirements still met through secure identity verification. If finalized, lawful consumers could complete the full compliance process remotely. That includes direct to home firearm delivery within an approved framework. This could be the most significant change to firearms retail distribution in decades. Importantly, the infrastructure required to operate in this environment is complex. As currently proposed, the new regulations require remote identity verification, meeting federal standards, seamless integration, advanced compliance systems, secure record keeping, and the operational ability to execute all of it accurately at scale. Grab a gun is uniquely positioned for this opportunity. For more than 15 years, we have built the Digital Infrastructure and Compliance Foundation required to support highly regulated online firearm transactions. Few companies are positioned to adapt this quickly if the rules change, regardless of regulatory outcome." This could both skyrocket the penetration of e-commerce platforms like GrabAGun, but also be a MASSIVE tailwind for PEW Logistics, since the main pushback would be that you still need the buy in of dealers to take delivery of weapons. If that's no longer the case, the odds of PEW Logistics being the back-end infrastructure of all the gun manufacturers going DTC go wayyy up. 2 - Solid commentary that gives me better comfort they won't blow the cash: " We're not in the business of overpaying to hit arbitrary growth targets. The strength of our balance sheet gives the luxury of patience. We can wait for the right assets at the right price, rather than chasing deals that don't make strategic or financial sense." I want to remind people you're paying less than $0 for the business, and also that -$2M of EBITDA isnt actually cash burn, EBITDA excludes the large amount of interest they earn on their cash.

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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
At the same time that $STRC has started to capture 100% of volume above par, Saylor is making interesting comments about how they "swap" STRC for BTC near-instantaneously to provide predictability for their counterparties. Sounds like they have some new quant partner?
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
@jeremykauffman PISA scoring is a cursed topic. I believe these are not item-level scores, but category scores above a threshold; from memory, "45%" means that 45% get 80% correct within a category of which that question is a member.
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Clark Square Capital
Clark Square Capital@ClarkSquareCap·
Well, the good news is that I haven't heard the term compounder in a while
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RAW EGG NATIONALIST
RAW EGG NATIONALIST@Babygravy9·
The “succulent Chinese meal” dude is the closest we have to a living breathing realisation of Nietzsche’s Ubermensch. A man who has transcended morality and resentment and survey the affairs of mere men with a haughty detachment and much laughing.
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
Something that 20yo me was unprepared to believe was that wrong worldviews are often wrong in extremely easy-to-verify ways. For instance, the current rate of Bitcoin inflation is 0.8%. The future inflation rate of Bitcoin is unknown.
Roxom@roxom

Michael Saylor said, “The life expectancy of Bitcoin is infinite because its inflation rate is zero.” “You’re immortal; you’re living for a billion… trillion years.” “I like the idea of gold, but digital gold is better. And how much better? Infinitely better”

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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
@everyonehatesp1 I used a computer. Any idea why these guys should have an advantage in 3PL vs., say, Bud's? I know "Bud's" sounds like it should be a clunky Web 1.0 property, but I've used it to buy all my guns, and it's been totally seamless.
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everyonehatespoetry
everyonehatespoetry@everyonehatesp1·
I think they advertise near full coverage but clearly there's still gaps/opportunities. They recently invested in a new warehouse to handle more volumes, not sure if that'll help geographic coverage wise. Did you do it on mobile or on a computer? Besides GAG website seemingly working better and having a "nicer" UI than buds on laptop, what is apparently the big difference maker is their mobile experience is a lot more pleasant than other brands.
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everyonehatespoetry
everyonehatespoetry@everyonehatesp1·
New pitch - GrabAGun Digital - $PEW Available in bio. TLDR _PEW trades at a 20% discount to the cash on its balance sheet _The core business outgrows its industry 15% a year on average, and is break-even on its way to profitability _It has a new business line that’s very high margin and could make it a multi-bagger
everyonehatespoetry tweet media
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DaBao
DaBao@DaBao_·
@CapitalShipyard do you mean Shinoken? I read that piece. Invested in it. the stock got MBO'd.
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
Shinnihon $1879 EBIT straight up, not a lossmaking year this century, remarkable for a RE developer. I remember when Raper had a writeup on one of these guys years ago...
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
Incredibly, only a 2.5x since 1993
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
Amazon has made it less seamless to pay with reward points in the checkout process. I assume that this is intentional and that it earns them a bit more in float, but it seems at odds with the whole "easy checkout" philosophy. There's now a friction.
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Livelongandprosper 🇺🇸🇮🇱
@CapitalShipyard They scrapped it and built a tubeless (patch) pump instead, now approved. They have manufacturing, and are going to try to and prove an “almost pumper” market exists (🤷). Problem is, they burn tons of cash, and are constantly diluting. Also, sector has been crushed.
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
$MODD pump approved, very studly. Why *wouldn't* an acquirer throw hundreds of millions at this?
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
So now they are redoing things, but to eliminate the contralateral effect, there is an entire placebo arm of patients who receive no active therapy.
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Shipyard Capital
Shipyard Capital@CapitalShipyard·
In the first trials, each patient served as experiment and control: a real injection in one eye and a sham injection in the other. *Both* eyes improved more than was plausible from pbo, which seemingly vindicated the science while ruining the statistical design.
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