Captain Candles

Christ is King

@KobeissiLetter Do you still see us between step 7 and 8?

Just 2 hours after markets closed: President Trump is now threatening to strike oil infrastructure on Iran’s Kharg Island, which accounts for 2% of global supply, if Iran doesn’t open the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, last month, production coming from Kharg Island hit 3 million barrels per day. If this happens, $150/barrel oil is possible. It’s going to be a busy weekend ahead.

@KobeissiLetter Always the best! Do you still see us at step 7 moving to step 8?

Our most frequent question right now: President Trump said the war is ending "very soon," and the IEA and the US are releasing 572 million barrels of oil reserves. So, why are oil prices nearing $100/barrel again? In the lead-up to Sunday night's historic $30+ rally in oil prices to $120/barrel, uncertainty was at record highs. The reason behind this rally was largely that President Trump was not signaling how long the Iran war would last. Since then, the ONLY factor that has changed is that President Trump has said the war will be over "pretty quickly." However, this also implies that military action will likely continue until at least the end of March. Meanwhile, as Iran calls for oil prices to rise toward $200/barrel, storage is filling up in Gulf countries and nearly 20 million barrels of daily supply remain off the market. On top of this, restarting oil production in the Gulf will not be simple. The path to restoring full output is now expected to take months. At its core, the only material difference between now and Monday is President Trump's reassurance that the war will not last "forever." We expect more comments like this from the Trump Administration as oil prices near $100/barrel. This would mirror the strategy used during the trade war, when hints of a "trade deal" often emerged as market volatility reached unsustainable levels. Markets are a product of sentiment and expectation.

It doesn't get more textbook than this: Every step of our March 3rd "Conflict Playbook" has been outlined on this oil price chart. It began with Steps #1 and #2 when Trump sent an "armada" to Iran and ramped up threats. On February 27th, we saw the "Friday night strikes" from Step #3 of our playbook. This led to Step #4 as risk premiums were rapidly priced-in. On March 3rd, President Trump began saying the war could last "forever," as expected in Step #5. Then, on Friday and last night, markets began pricing in Step #6, a prolonged conflict sending oil prices to $120/barrel. Finally, today at 3:20 PM ET, President Trump hinted at "conditional de-escalation" from Step #7 of our Conflict Playbook. We are now nearing Step #8. Keep following along.

@KobeissiLetter The fact that this information is free is a true gift. Amazing work @KobeissiLetter !

@KobeissiLetter Best account on X!

It's officially 5:00 PM ET: In 60 minutes, US stock market futures will open for the first time since the war between the US, Iran, and Israel began. Some indications show oil prices surging well over $70/barrel and gold and silver prices are in the spotlight. Our view: Let the dust settle before making emotional trading decisions. We expect extreme volatility as markets attempt to price-in vast amounts of uncertainty for the first time. We will be breaking it all down real-time here on X. Turn on our post notifications at @KobeissiLetter.

Here are some basic rules: When insiders buy, you pay attention. Stock gets below 200-week SMA, you avoid. Ignore stocks making new lows when the market is making highs. If it's down 50% in a bull market, there's a reason - and it's not "opportunity." When a stock breaks down on earnings, don't try to catch it. Let it find a floor first. Stock pumps 30% in a week with no news? That's not opportunity. That's someone's exit liquidity. If you can't explain the thesis in two sentences, you don't have one - you have FOMO. When a sector is rotating out, your favorite stock in that sector isn't special. It's coming down too. Stocks that gap up and immediately fade? That's distribution disguised as strength. If institutional ownership is dropping quarter after quarter, you shouldn't be adding. Strong stocks pull back to support and bounce. Weak stocks break support and keep falling. Know the difference. When something works, do more of it. When it doesn't, stop doing it. Sounds simple. Most can't do it. 🔖 Save this. You'll need it later.

BREAKING: Amazon stock, $AMZN, falls -10% after reporting Q4 2025 earnings. It's now down -15% on the day including its regular hours move.

Is this really Scott Bessent? Not a look-alike, but the one-and-only Scott Bessent? Yep, that’s him. Wow!

BREAKING: Senate Democrats say they have reached a deal with President Trump to fund the government and avoid a government shutdown.

@MichaelXBT @WatcherGuru BTC not even up 1% on the day😂

JUST IN: $100,000,000 worth of crypto shorts liquidated in the past 15 minutes.

We now have: 1. Another government shutdown on the way 2. Potential new 100% tariffs on Canada 3. President Trump actively looking to acquire Greenland 4. US “armada” heading toward Iran 5. DOJ investigation into Fed Chair Powell 6. BlackRock’s CIO as the likely next Fed Chair 7. President Trump calling for $2,000 stimulus checks and 1% interest rates Asset owners will be the only winners.

@mrofwallstreet Just been hitting ATH after ATH though…

The chart bulls don’t want you to see Stocks have NEVER been so overvalued The consequence is only one, a big dump!

@KobeissiLetter Arguably the greatest account on X

This is the most profitable market in history. Stocks are now extending gains to a new high of the day, the S&P 500 up +1.5%. Take a minute to read steps #1 through #8 in our tariff playbook. There will be more to come. Systematic investing is winning.

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 NYSE to launch 24/7 US stock trading through new on-chain tokenized exchange.

@KobeissiLetter @Alexarmstrong And this is why you have notifications turned on for @KobeissiLetter ! Amazing!

@Alexarmstrong If you read the comments on our article, many are asking why we decided to post this information for free given the immense value. The reality is, we can all win together on X. We appreciate your kind words.

This is an incredible analysis. Worth reading.

@MichaelXBT Nothing to be bullish on short term

Never trust a Sunday dump

Key Events This Week: 1. Stock Market Futures React to Trump’s 10% EU Tariffs - Tonight 2. US Markets Closed, MLK Day - Monday 3. December Pending Home Sales data - Wednesday 4. US Q3 2025 GDP data - Thursday 5. November PCE Inflation data - Thursday 6. January S&P Global PMI data - Friday 7. 10% of S&P 500 companies report earnings this week We have a short but busy week ahead.