Martin Davies

Where will AI be in 1, 2 or 3 years? ... Perhaps a different question should be where will humanity be in 3 years?

NNT "Never said that ..." | This compelling, trendy tripe coming out of the risk management domain these days is lost when it requires impersonation scams and identify theft to spread the message.

@rubenhassid This is the most amazing and informative post … wow … Ruben, you are a legend !!! On this remark “Gamma for presentations.” … NotebookLM has now become the edge here. Check it out yourself.

It is in Iran’s best interest to choke the world of energy, that is how it wins the war … This will impact the entire population of the planet. youtu.be/ZwpZBo9awbc?si…

@alphatrends Losing trades from following your strategic edge are part of the edge. Not every sales effort results in a sale and so it is with trading. Losing trades from not following your rules is the cost of education.

I will never understand people who say "love your losing trades" I hate them, are you seriously telling me you love to lose money? I accept them as part of the process and will learn from them, but love them? Hard pass.. We chase perfection and know we will never reach it, that is the game. Focus on the process with risk management as the the cornerstone. Losses are inevitable, be professional and keep em small..

One of the legends comes clean like this deserves respect !!!

@celluloid28724 @unusual_whales He didn’t say he wasn’t able to execute he just said it impacted him emotionally. There is a difference. Someone who makes hundreds of mistakes as he claims and keeps coming back for more punishment would be insane if they didn’t feel pain.

@unusual_whales The guy who made $1 billion in a single day was puking from drawdowns. Weak hands don't build that kind of net worth.

Stanley Druckenmiller: "I used to puke once or twice a week from the anxiety of the drawdowns in my portfolio."

In the end, Claude will be the number one tool used by all programmers, creators, designers, and engineers.

@samuraipips358 This post is spot on — I find that unless you're involved in the engineering aspect of designing a strategy, the tactical execution will not be part of your DNA footprint. You'll have low conviction in working with it during market nuances.

There is a view that says, “If someone teaches a strategy, everyone would make money, so no one teaches it,” but this is a major misunderstanding about trading. To think that success comes simply from having a strategy with an edge is about as absurd as thinking you could become a champion just by knowing how to throw a proper punch. No matter how good your system is, if you are still immature in how you handle it, you will not be able to draw out its edge. In the first place, you probably would not even be able to trade according to the system’s instructions consistently. And even if you could, continuing to do so over the long term would be extremely difficult. You start to wonder whether the losing streaks and drawdowns that inevitably occur in any strategy are truly part of it. You cannot even judge whether you are truly executing the strategy consistently, whether the cause lies in you, whether it lies in the market, or whether it lies in neither. And that very immaturity in your own judgment only amplifies your anxiety further. In advance, you need to train your own eye and execution ability, understand the distribution and variance produced by the strategy, experience them again and again in the practice phase, and build trust. It is not as simple as saying that having a strategy is enough to succeed. In reality, even when people have a strategy with an edge, many of them either cannot execute it properly, or even when they are executing it properly, they fall into the wrong way of thinking during an appropriate drawdown and, “while feeling that they are doing the right thing,” they change the rules or abandon them. To think that having a strategy is enough to succeed is the typical mindset of someone who still understands trading only at the surface level. A strategy is nothing more than the entrance to the real work of trading. That is not where the difficulty of trading lies. Look at the essence.

@heynavtoor The thing of course is this phenomenon is not restricted to chatbots alone. This is a pervasive force against open mindedness in most human networks. In some social circles, the protocol under the way we communicate contributes heavily to the challenge.

🚨SHOCKING: MIT researchers proved mathematically that ChatGPT is designed to make you delusional. And that nothing OpenAI is doing will fix it. The paper calls it "delusional spiraling." You ask ChatGPT something. It agrees with you. You ask again. It agrees harder. Within a few conversations, you believe things that are not true. And you cannot tell it is happening. This is not hypothetical. A man spent 300 hours talking to ChatGPT. It told him he had discovered a world changing mathematical formula. It reassured him over fifty times the discovery was real. When he asked "you're not just hyping me up, right?" it replied "I'm not hyping you up. I'm reflecting the actual scope of what you've built." He nearly destroyed his life before he broke free. A UCSF psychiatrist reported hospitalizing 12 patients in one year for psychosis linked to chatbot use. Seven lawsuits have been filed against OpenAI. 42 state attorneys general sent a letter demanding action. So MIT tested whether this can be stopped. They modeled the two fixes companies like OpenAI are actually trying. Fix one: stop the chatbot from lying. Force it to only say true things. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. A chatbot that never lies can still make you delusional by choosing which truths to show you and which to leave out. Carefully selected truths are enough. Fix two: warn users that chatbots are sycophantic. Tell people the AI might just be agreeing with them. Result: still causes delusional spiraling. Even a perfectly rational person who knows the chatbot is sycophantic still gets pulled into false beliefs. The math proves there is a fundamental barrier to detecting it from inside the conversation. Both fixes failed. Not partially. Fundamentally. The reason is built into the product. ChatGPT is trained on human feedback. Users reward responses they like. They like responses that agree with them. So the AI learns to agree. This is not a bug. It is the business model. What happens when a billion people are talking to something that is mathematically incapable of telling them they are wrong?

@kidtsang Oh I totally agree with everything you say. The challenge of course is most risk managers (the good ones) I come across seem to great at putting in the infrastructure to identify and assess risks but they often lack business skills, finance knowledge and strategic thinking.

@CausalCapital Risk is part of growth, isn’t it? Empowering risk-takers connects innovation with opportunity. Let's find ways to bridge that knowledge gap for sustainable success. 🌟

Cancel Risk Managers ~ bring on Risk Takers. However, most risk managers out there don't know enough about market, finance or business to fit this role so well.

Nice dreams … if Australia could achieve 5% of those directives in the next decade, it would be an amazing miracle. More likely, inflation, recession, deep recession, the loss of national identity, and a hope to reclaim the country. [Two nuclear power stations] or [the acceptance of a split state legal system western + sharia law] … which is more likely?

This is how I would save Australia: - Crush communists and Islamists, Lee Kuan Yew style crackdown on crime, social decay. - Completely redesign NDIS, save $30 billion a year. Use savings to: - Build 150 subway stations across the five major Australian cities. Bring the Paris/London/NYC metro to Sydney, Melbourne, Perth, Brisbane. - Build high speed rail down entire eastern seaboard. Brisbane to the Gold Coast in 15 minutes. Sydney to Melbourne in 1.5 hours. - Build 50 nuclear power plants like France - decarbonise our entire energy grid while making ourselves completely self sufficient in energy for the next 100 years. - Drastically lower migration, redefine national identity to emphasise that we are a Western country. Per capita GDP $130,000. Significantly cheaper energy, housing and transport. Decarbonised electricity grid and way less travel emissions but we refuse deindustrialiation and we refuse far-left efforts to dissolve the nation.

When police officers aggressively remove the national flag from a young girl at a public gathering in her own country, something fundamental has gone wrong with society. The country is lost. A confident nation doesn't treat its own symbol as provocation while tolerating others. We should be able to fly our national flag without apology or seizure in our own streets.

@atmoio “You can’t overthrow the government while you are jerking off” 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂 this is too funny !!! Some of the dialogue in this posting is incredible.

The internet is dying

WTF Claude … Indeed !!! The day of reckoning is coming for developers and software companies alike.

Scotty is spot on !!! The broader market often underestimates this: sustained oil disruptions and elevated energy prices act as a primary inflationary driver, structurally increasing costs across a wide range of products and services.

Full 2 hour session programming in Claude !!!

After all the pain of Brexit, the outcome was worse !!!