Cozy

@TheMarketMemo 长期投资者是不是不看盘

@Cdzy1 原因不重要，重要的是：面對可能出現的情況，你有何打算？

創紀錄的空頭對沖持倉，但市場拒絕下跌。如果市場繼續橫盤整理而不崩盤，大規模的保護性買盤可能導致嘎空行情，推動市場強烈反彈。

@MasterPandaWu Kudos! Bought the shorts with you

Wow--legendary! The third Gap is ALMOST FILLED. Did you heed my warning or short the hell of it???

@MasterPandaWu Is that a hammer?

MPW Mid-week Report Posted: (1) in time of turbulance and uncertainty, MPW's time-tested system and trading style works the best. (2) all subs know what I am talking about here, as they are well-positioned last week for the selloff. (3) check more at thekobeissiletter.com/panda

@Franco_Oliva__ @MasterPandaWu He will tell you afterwards

@MasterPandaWu What are the probabilities of each possible path?

Ending or Leading? (1) if it is ending diagonal, then the red path is a standard retrace path, getting back to its origin in a hurry. (2) if it is a leading diagonal, then SPX-7300 should be a normal target, but--you have to stretch your imagination to maximum. (3) DTK still red

@MasterPandaWu You always have multiple curves right?

TO SUBS: (1) the primary roadmap--30min chart in Scroll 205--is right on/almost perfect so far. (2) zoom-in, the ending diagonal has been confirmed and the decline will be accelerated soon. (3) 6835 is gap-down target for tmrw at open--today's update will confirm final bottom

@MasterPandaWu How about now:)

@MoonAtCloud 有意思🤔

一个老程序员看到喉返神经后的感慨 第一次看到喉返神经（recurrent laryngeal nerve，RLN）的解剖图，我怔住了整整半分钟。 那条从脑干发出的神经，本应直抵喉部，却偏要绕道下行，深入胸腔一圈，再折返向上。 在鱼类身上，这路径顺理成章；到了哺乳动物，却成了一个死结；而到了长颈鹿体内，它竟要绕行五米之远。 脖子越长，绕路越显荒唐，却无法更改。 生物没有“重构子系统”的权力，它只能在旧线路上修修补补。 那一刻，我想到的不是生物学，而是 CS:IP = F000:FFF0。 这是所有Intel电脑永远的“喉返神经”。 今天回顾历史，8086 的设计团队确实非常聪明。他们创造性地重新设计了通用寄存器、真正的堆栈指针、丰富的寻址模式、微码翻译、16 位算术和内部时钟，这是第一次将“现代 CPU”塞进一颗芯片。 只不过，由于当年寻址寄存器只有 16 位，电脑内存地址又想突破 64K，于是他们搞出了一个临时方案：“段左移 4 位 + 偏移”的假扩展。 没人想到，这个错位的 20 位怪胎设计，会将整整一代计算机文明锁死，成为个人电脑的“喉返神经”。 特别是当 IBM PC 采用 8088 之后，一切都被封印了。 1MB 地址空间被切割得支离破碎：0–640K 留给程序，640K–1MB 塞满显存、BIOS、扩展卡和通信端口。 装上 1MB 内存，一半被设备占用；装上 4MB，也得靠 EMS/XMS 驱动像撑大的气球一样勉强塞入。 整个电脑的寻址方式，就像那条喉返神经，被硬塞进早已不合身的躯壳中，却无法重新布线。 一个大程序被拆解成几十个 64K 的小盒子，链接器像搬砖一样辛苦。near/far 指针、C语言的五种编译模式（S、C、M、L、H）折腾得死去活来。 指针多算一步就跨段，call 和 return 仿佛不在一个宇宙；数组超过 64K 就会崩溃；中断向量表卡死在 0x0000；显存固定在 A0000。 我们当年写程序时，还“聪明”地利用这个“寻址魔法”，操纵段寄存器防拷贝、反调试、在ROM 区假写入、改CS偷系统中断向量表，这些“技巧”都依赖对段寄存器的操作，全是沿着那条畸形的“段:偏移”神经做文章。 当年我们依赖结构漏洞生存，而非凭借结构优雅编程。 8086 那套段寄存器本来只是权宜之计，到了 80286 却被推成了彻底的疯狂。 英特尔试图把分段模型扩展成一个庞大的保护体系：整个内存结构被迫围着“分段”这一原始补丁转圈。 最可怕的是，一旦进入 80286 的保护模式就无法返回实模式，整个系统像被封在铁盒里，只有重启电脑才能脱身。 直到80386 出来，强行引入平展寻址和分页机制，“寻址要分段”这条史前时代的畸形定律终于被压到架构底层，程序员第一次获得真正的32位寻址自由。 指针不再区分 near/far，返回地址不再错位，数组不会在 64K 边界自杀。段寄存器从主角沦为透明的影子。 这时，我们以为终于摆脱了祖先的那段绕路，以为 80386 的平展寻址把那条祖先绕路的“喉返神经”终于剪掉了，可事实不是这样。 你二舅还是你二舅，386 仍然是 x86。后来的 80486 还是 x86，哪怕英特尔改名成 Pentium，可它依旧是 x86 的延长线。 哪怕是后来变成 i3、i5、i7、i9，本质还是那一套祖传血统。名字怎么换都行，微架构翻了几十次代也行，但那条最深的印记永远在。 你当然可以把整颗芯片全部现代化，把页表、MMU、总线协议、缓存层级全换一遍，但只要它叫 x86，哪怕做到百核、做到 TB 级内存，启动的第一口气仍然必须像 1978 年的 8086 一样去跑那段古老的实模式流程。 电脑永远逃不掉那个噩梦：上电后，从 F000:FFF0 开始那个1978年的时刻醒来，假装自己还活在 1MB 的史前时代。 BIOS 再怎么换皮，UEFI 再怎么现代，都得先演一遍“古代仪式”：跑过 8086 的实模式，走过那套段模型、1MB 内存地图和 A0000 显存区，然后才缓缓进入保护模式、长模式，最终装载 Windows 11。 那条线路永远无法删除。抽象层越厚，它越像胚胎发育中必须重演的一段祖先结构。 那天，我看着喉返神经的图，再翻翻启动流程，忽然明白： 我们写代码写了这么多年，其实从未走出那个史前时代的影子。 文明再先进，外壳再光鲜，底下总有一条古老的线路，是你永远无法摆脱的。

@elonmusk Saw it

Please reply if you see this within 5 minutes of posting, but not later than that. This is a test to determine how long it takes for users to receive notifications of 𝕏 posts on their actual device.

@elonmusk I subscribed both Grok4 and GPT5. I found GPT5 more intelligent and can progress my thinking better. It explores more untapped thinking when brainstorming with me. Just one data point.

🚀

@TheMarketMemo 我觉得科技平权的特性导致了劣币驱逐良币 情绪战胜理智 因为大多数人是愚蠢和情绪化的 精英暂时失去了话语权 。等待钟摆荡回去可能要十年。

近期兩件事感觸很深：一個是，大國博弈竟可以如此兒戲；另一個是，全世界最大的金融市場竟然可以如此容易被操縱。

@MasterPandaWu Would you say Trump is hung? This development is unexpected to most. Any insight to share?

@Cdzy1 China, this time, will hang him dry, in front of the whole world. Based on the manufacturing capacity and purchasing power index, China is 1.5 larger than U.S. People will find out who is the big brother this time.

[Bull-shit] -- too late for the gesture -- market's positive reaction toward this "tariff folding" stance is wishful thinking & TOTALLY MISPLACED. Now, it is not what Trump says that matters. It is China's reaction. On that front, be prepared for some major escalations from China in the face of U.S.'s weakness. Trump thinks he can bully someone and then walk away with a BFF card--it MAY work for Vietnam, or Ecuador, NOT China. The dip-buyers & new bulls will learn their lesson the hard way in very short time. [100% cash now; will launch my MPW hammer soon, definitely this week]. Trump says tariff on China will ‘come down substantially’ from 145 percent thehill.com/homenews/admin…

@MasterPandaWu Wang Xiaohong? Why him?

Rebound normally stops on GOOD NEWS--if the market closes green today, then that would be a record-setting feat, considering the worsening economic background and geo-political tensions on the horizon, it is a safe bet to go short with 1-week option+ Will buy 0dxt puts at open.

@MasterPandaWu Surprised how many hearts you got on this post

Total Shit-show: (1) Now, with the statement from China's Commerce Ministry during a press conference, Top U.S. officials + Financial Media + market participants ALL intentionally interpreted this as a concession from China to start negotiation. The market bounced back from overnight lows. (2) PLEASE--find someone who can read Chinese--the following is the original announcement. Basically, it said three things. One, U.S. side has been begging to talks via various channels over last week; Two, China is assessing the situation; Three, for any meaningful talk to BEGIN, U.S. has to "correct its wrongdoing first to show its sincerity to negotiate. Otherwise, forget about it and China will fight till the end." (3) apparently, this is a diplomatic courtesy from Chinese side to respond to "multiple requests" from U.S. side to talk. THERE IS ABSOLUTELY NO SIGN CHINA IS WAVERING FROM ITS ORIGINAL STANCE. (4) Given the apparent "desperate wishful thinking" from U.S. side toward this statement, I think a clarification will follow. If the rebound continues till the open, will short more with longer time frame. This shit-show has to stop.

@cohen____ @MasterPandaWu That’s a good demonstration of the sentiment

@MasterPandaWu If you’ve been shorting then you’re losing $. If you keep shorting you will keep losing $. Market doesn’t care if you think it’s a mess, sorry but true. Charts look good and that’s all that matters

@TheMarketMemo 股市又在骗人了

5月2日起，美國取消對中國商品的低價豁免政策。中國商品若通過郵政寄送將被課徵 120% 關稅或每件100美元的固定費用（6月起升至200美元）。若通過其他渠道進口，稅率高達 145%。中國低價電商平台 Shein 和 Temu 每年透過此豁免政策出口近 500億美元的商品到美國，佔中國對美出口約11%。 目前 Shein 某些商品價格飆升超過150%，Temu 則開始額外收取「進口費」，部分商品進口費甚至高過商品本身價格。美國是兩者最重要的市場：Shein 約30% 銷售來自美國，Temu 高達40%。Shein 原本打算在紐約上市，後轉向倫敦，但估值已從高峰的 1000億美元縮水至約500億美元。 然而，Shein 和 Temu試圖轉向其他市場的努力也是困難重重。英、法、德等國也開始考慮取消類似小包裹免稅政策，越南禁止其平台販售，印尼封鎖 Temu App。最重要的是，中國政府不希望他們轉移供應鏈，據報中國商務部已要求 Shein 停止多元化布局。（The Economist）

@MasterPandaWu Your prediction was clear, but I still did not get the reasoning: just because China can doesn’t mean China would or should, right?

@TheMarketMemo 川普这么快就怂了吗？

劇情似乎在反轉🤡