Cecil Caufield

4.2K posts

Cecil Caufield

Cecil Caufield

@CecilCaufield

San Francisco, CA Katılım Ağustos 2009
326 Takip Edilen91 Takipçiler
Cecil Caufield retweetledi
Sama Hoole
Sama Hoole@SamaHoole·
Eduardo took eleven minutes to cross the field this morning. The field is approximately 130 metres long. Eduardo, if he had wanted to, could have crossed it at a brisk alpaca walk in about three minutes. He did not want to. He stopped at the gorse bush. He stopped at the small section of clover near the gate. He stopped at the place where the badger crosses, which is not currently active but which Eduardo, by some assessment of his own, considers worth checking. He stopped at the dip where the rainwater pools, drank slightly, walked on. He stopped at the eastern fence post for ninety seconds and looked, by every visible indicator, at nothing in particular. He arrived at the far gate at 7.46am. The farmer, watching from the kitchen, made a cup of tea. The farmer's wife, who has watched Eduardo cross this field most mornings for seven years, said: "He's slow today." The farmer: "He's slow every day." The wife: "He's slow on purpose." The farmer: "...Yes." This is the thing about Eduardo. The eleven minutes is not inefficient. The eleven minutes is the work. The work is to walk the field, attend to it, notice what has changed, register the gorse and the badger crossing and the dip and the fence post, and finish at the far gate having processed the morning. Most useful animals, and most useful humans, work like this. The work is in the noticing. The noticing requires time. The time looks, to the casual observer, like the animal is doing nothing. The animal is not doing nothing. The animal is doing the most important part. The phone in your pocket has, in the last decade, optimised the noticing out of most modern lives. The walk to work has become the scroll on the bus. The lunch has become the working lunch. The slow look at the eastern fence post has become the answered email. Eduardo has not, at any point, optimised the noticing out. This is, in the long run, why Eduardo is fine and you are tired. Walk the field slowly. Notice the gorse. Be the alpaca.
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@lymanstoneky At local church fair (~20 rides, lots of people), I let him go free with a place to meet. “If you can’t find us, ask an adult to call me.” He has our numbers memorized. He called and we met at the big slide. Pretty happy with the free range lifestyle. Cars tho. . .
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@lymanstoneky Ironically, the tech should allow more freedom. 1st grader had a spill on his bike (solo) on the way to school, wife gets two calls immediately from other walking parents (he was fine). I have an AirTag in the bike, backpack. This should allow him to go further than we did
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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
My oldest is 6. Her age peers: -25% already have a smartphone -spend 7.2 HOURS/wk on internet devices -58% aren't even allowed to play IN THEIR OWN YARD without supervision -get less than 40 minutes/week outside without supervision -socialize with friends only 2.2 hrs/wk
The Institute for Family Studies@FamStudies

American kids spend enormous amounts of time online with very few significant restrictions, according to a new @FamStudies research brief published today by Michael Toscano, @lymanstoneky and @grantjbailey 🧵 (1 of 3) Read the summary here: ifstudies.org/blog/new-ifs-b…

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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper If we want to pick a sport and complain about the regular season becoming less relevant, I pick college football. It used to be that every game during the season was a “playoff” game. Now, notsomuch
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper Yeah, that’s a kind of the default setting it seems like. But it’s what makes the NFL regular season so must watch.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
i will do a thread on this at some point, but the college basketball regular season and conference tournaments have been completely meaningless for decades. I don't think that's the relevant construct here.
Derek Thompson@DKThomp

I think one way to get at the NBA's problem is to start w the question: What would it look like for a professional sport's regular season to be the equivalent of a pre-season exhibition period—that is, something that genuinely, truly does not matter at all? 1. For starters, seeding wouldn't matter ... bc home court advantage would barely exist, in which case the best teams could win the championship as an 8th seed just as easily as they could win as the 1st seed. 2. The playoff series would be long enough that (a) the best teams had ample opportunity to prove their superiority [unlike in March Madness, or the NFL playoffs, where 20 bad minutes can end the best team's season] and (b) you're giving casual fans a LOT of basketball to watch so they don't feel bad about skipping most of the regular season. 3. Also, you'd let the vast majority of the teams make the playoffs -- maybe by adding a "play-in" that extends potential playoff qualification to, like, 2/3rds of the league. 4. You'd have several teams that recognize (and practically celebrate!) the futility of the regular season by spending much of this period *actively and flagrantly trying to lose* bc the draft is so much more valuable than the outcome of any particular week, or month, of regular-season competition. In fact, you'd have fans actively rooting for about 1/3rd of the league to throw away most of the regular season bc they only really care about getting a high draft pick. 5. Finally, you'd have a sport where it was basically impossible to win a championship without a top 10 (or, really, top 5!?) player, in which case many franchises are rationally fixated on throwing away regular seasons to maximize their chance to draft or trade for a top 10 guy. ... okay, I think you get my point :) I love listening to basketball podcasts in the autumn and winter, and I love watching playoff basketball in the spring. But I think there are very deep structural reasons why the NBA regular season, for many casual fans, feels like a prolonged preview of an actual sport that begins in April.

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Cecil Caufield retweetledi
Lauren Wilford
Lauren Wilford@lauren_wilford·
recently I saw an art exhibition that truly made me both laugh and cry: a retrospective of a painter I had never heard of before, Mexican surrealist Alfredo Castañeda (1938-2010). Every painting felt like an "instant classic," as if it had always been part of the canon 1/
Lauren Wilford tweet mediaLauren Wilford tweet mediaLauren Wilford tweet mediaLauren Wilford tweet media
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper Don’t know what’s better on the bottom line of the stakeholders. But it’s certainly worse for me, casual fan, now. Games would pop up during the season (effective playoff games) that were interesting and I’d watch, along with traditional rivalries. Now, meh, maybe watch playoffs
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper I haven’t heard anyone explicitly say this. It’s so obvious to me now after reading it.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
I will again repeat my basic formulation on speeding-- we enforce too much on empty interstates, where it's pretty safe to go very fast but it's easy to write tickets. We enforce too little in populated areas, where the reverse is true.
Josh Barro@jbarro

You shouldn't be driving ten over on city streets. That's the whole point of the limits -- pedestrians are drastically likelier to survive impacts at 25mph than 35mph. x.com/SixTwoLiters/s…

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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper Hard to get into the mind of someone like that, but like, if he could post bail, seems like it would be reasonable and unsurprising if he did in fact not return
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
This issue is merely theoretical because I doubt anyone posts his bail, but Nick Reiner is being held on $4 million bail. In days of yore, a person in his situation would have certainly been held with NO bail in California, because a multiple murder is a "special circumstance".
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper Yeah that’s my feeling. If I wasn’t going to waste people’s time, I would have liked to have asked more questions - we can all agree 99.99% is good though and that 66% isn’t. So where’s a number that is marginal? But most people don’t/can’t properly think in probabilities anyway
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
@CecilCaufield It's what the jury thinks it is. Which is a bit aggravating to me as a pedant, but I understand why we do it that way. And it's highly inappropriate to say "60%".
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper This. Want to emphasize the fact that as the ratio of Vegas travelers became less weighted towards gamblers, the product of Vegas had to change. You can’t offer free-ish rooms and free-ish dinners and drinks if you can’t make as much profit on the back end via gambling
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
The problem I have with the "they drove out all the budget gamblers" thesis is that while it obviously isn't completely false, it's also what a lot of people WANT to believe. It's kind of like in horse racing, when gamblers say "rising takeout" is the cause of everything.
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper Seemed like a pretty good crowd to me once everyone filled in by the start of the second quarter. They have a ton of general admission/unassigned seats, which makes me think they can’t sell 100%?
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@lymanstoneky Like, these wouldn’t exist in a vacuum w/o the gov. or they already would be popular?
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@lymanstoneky I don’t think it’s the reason people people are complaining, but seems to me that a creditable argument against is if they are backed by the gov, at that length, it will be some sort of net transfer of wealth to current home owners, be it as buyers’ or tax payers’ expense.
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Lyman Stone 石來民 🦬🦬🦬
i don't get this kind of critique. yes, we should have more housing supply. but if somebody wants to finance it over 50 years and a bank will take the deal, what's the issue? why would having this as a regulatory category be so bad?
Trig@triggerx101

@lymanstoneky The problem with a 50-year mortgage is we live in a situation now where some people need 50-year mortgages. It is a Band-Aid solution to a bigger problem. Someone shouldn’t have to buy a house at 20 & not have it paid off till 70. There needs to be a greater supply of houses.

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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@MCCCANM Overnight stay is awesome with kids. Highly recommend.
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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper The intuition is wrong if only the market isn’t such that there isn’t a state limited handful of operators who behave in a way that excludes law abiding citizens. Quantity restrictions for cigarettes might be good, but weird if they were only enforced on occasion smokers.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
@CecilCaufield Intuitions are wrong though. And if it were possible to buy cigarettes online, having a quantity restriction (which would make it more difficult for addicts) might be a good idea!
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
Every time I retweet my gambling thread I get this response. I suppose it deserves a comprehensive examination. I think this is muddled thinking, and is trying to solve the wrong problem (indeed, a non-problem).
Dolphus Raymond 🇺🇸🇺🇦@DolphusRaymond5

@dilanesper Curious on your opinion on banning platforms from banning users who are "too good" and win too consistently. It may require these platforms to offer worse odds and thereby reduce their appeal.

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Cecil Caufield
Cecil Caufield@CecilCaufield·
@dilanesper I guess the problem most people have is the principle of it. The intuition is that casinos shouldn’t even be allowed to ban card counters, let alone sports bettors. Anyone can go buy a pack of cigarettes, not just those with highly addictive personalities.
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Dilan Esper
Dilan Esper@dilanesper·
@CecilCaufield You can't ban it because so many people want to do it. There's an actual lesson of Prohibition. Regulation of vice isn't all or nothing, That's what's driving me crazy here-- there's a middle ground!
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