Celsius Energy

#Natgas has seen its share of the powerstack improve significantly since the beginning of the month as wind generation has slackened & temperatures have warmed. However, at an average of 43% over the past week, 2026 still has the 2nd lowest share compared to the same period in the last 5 yrs.

Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand will slump to just 16.5 BCF/d, a rare <0.1 BCF/d year-over-year decline. In fact, it would mark the first year-over-year decline—if it verifies in tonight’s finalized data—since the January freeze-off event. #Natgas

An inverted temperature pattern will set up today with impressive triple-digit heat across Montana, the Dakotas, and into Michigan’s Upper Peninsula while temperatures will actually cool as you head South. Due to higher population densities to the south, the net impact will be a slightly bearish GWDD tally for today at 12.2 GWDDs. #Natgas

For the #natgas storage week of July 4-10 that ended yesterday, I’m projecting a preliminary +42 BCF injection, 3 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg & 5 BCF smaller than last yr. It would be the 2nd smallest build for the week in the last 5 yrs. The much smaller injection compared to the previous week (+61 BCF) is due to a slight increase in GWDDs as well as a sharp 43% decline in wind generation. The EIA will release its official numbers for the week next Thursday, July 16.

The near-term temperature outlook has moderated over the past 24 hrs, especially for the July 17-21 period. This is reflected in my daily GWDD trend map which shows forecast GWDDs for this period at the bottom of their 72 hr range. #Natgas

For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report covering June 22-July 3, I am projecting a +49 BCF injection, a neutral 2 bullish vs the 5-yr avg & 4 BCF smaller than last year. It would be the second smallest build for the week in the last 5 years, albeit far above 2021’s +22 BCF 5-yr minimum.

Not all Heat Advisories are created equal. Jacksonville, FL is under a Heat Advisory today for heat indices reaching 110F. Fort Yukon, AK is under a Heat Advisory today for heat indices reaching…the mid-80s. #Natgas

While not spectacular on an individual day basis, the near-term temperature outlook for the next two weeks remains consistently, modestly hotter-than-normal driving slightly above-average GWDDs. Still consistency counts. 14-day accumulated GWDDs for July 8-21 stand at 194 GWDDs, the single most for the period in the last 5 yrs. #Natgas

...And if you sign-up for a premium subscription today, you effectively receive a 1-month trial since new subscribers for this month will not be charged until August 1. You can quit at any time, though I hope you'll stay. More: celsiusenergy.net/p/support-cels…

...If you are not yet a subscriber, please consider giving the site a try. Subscribers gain access to daily #Natgas supply/demand data, Commentaries, an Advanced Modeling Page updated w/ the latest GFS/ECMWF data, & a managed Energy Portfolio. More: celsiusenergy.net/p/support-cels…

For subscribers, I have updated the site with a new July 2026 Password, which you should have received in an email. If you did not, please ensure that your payment information is correct & send an email to CelsiusEnergyFM@gmail.com. Thank you for your support!

For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report covering June 20-26, I’m projecting a +82 BCF injection, 18 BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & 21 BCF larger than last year. It would be the single largest build for the week in the last 5 years, topping 2023’s +76 BCF. Of note, this week’s data does not include the impact of the ongoing heatwave. Expect next week’s build to be considerably smaller.

Intense heat will continue across the Central US today but will also begin to expand eastward. Heat Advisories & Extreme Heat Warnings dominate most states along and east of the Mississippi River. My Gas-Weighted Degree Day (GWDD) outlook for today stands at 14.2 GWDD, easily a 5-yr high for June 30. Expect #natgas powerburn to reach new seasonal highs today above 42 BCF/d.

My 14-day accumulated GWDD outlook per my Consensus Model--which integrates a performance-based average of GFS & ECMWF data—now stands at 201 GWDDs for June 29-July 12, +33 GWDDs greater than the 5-yr avg & easily a 5-yr high for the period. This would be an impressive tally even for the peak of the cooling season. #Natgas

#Natgas powerburn has trailed year-ago levels by a wide margin over the past week due to the combination of cool conditions across the Midwest & Northeast as well as unseasonable heat this time last year. Expect that to change in a big way over the next few days as an intense early-season heatwave ramps up across the Heartland & then shifts eastward. Powerburn will handily top 40-45 BCF/d & see robust year-over-year gains. See more on daily & realtime powerburn on my site’s dedicated page here: celsiusenergy.net/p/powerburn.ht…

Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Watches are beginning to be hoisted across the Midwest—including the entire state of Iowa—ahead of a prolonged period of early-season heat beginning early next week. Look for #natgas powerburn demand to quickly ramp up to seasonal highs in response.

For the #natgas storage week of June 20-26 that ends today, I’m projecting a +81 BCF injection, 17 BCF bearish vs the 5-yr avg & 20 BCF larger than last year. It would be the single largest build for the week in the last 5 years, topping 2023’s +76 BCF. The EIA will release official numbers next Thursday, July 2.

Temperatures will begin to steadily warm this weekend as heat builds east of the Rockies. The near-term forecast remains quite supportive for #natgas demand. My Consensus Model—which integrates a performance-based average of GFS & ECMWF data—is currently calling for an impressive 188 GWDDs for June 26-July 9, easily the single most for the period in the last 5 years.

For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report covering June 13-19, I’m projecting a +72 BCF injection, a slight 3 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg & 23 BCF smaller than last year. It would be the third smallest build for the week in the last 5 years.