Cern.Basher

Tesla: How many shares do you need to own? Let's say that Elon's new compensation plan passes and he's motivated to grow Tesla again, how many shares of TSLA do you need to own to reach your goals (assuming Elon meets all the targets)? Regarding Elon's motivation - I'm kidding - Elon has always been motivated and he's been laying the ground work for future growth for the last several years. The table below shows how many shares you need to own if you want to have $1 million, $5 million, $10 million, $25 million, $50 million or $100 million in Tesla stock at all the various market cap tranches and the $400 billion EBITDA target. Goal: $1 million Today: In order to have $1 million in Tesla stock today you need to own 2,857 shares. At $8.5 trillion: If Elon is able to reach the market capitalization milestone of $8.5 trillion, you'd need just 472 shares to be a millionaire. Those shares would cost you ~$165,200 today. At $400 billion EBITDA: If Elon is able to reach the EBITDA milestone of $400 billion (assuming the market applies a 40 multiple to that --> so the market cap would be $16 trillion), you'd need only 251 shares to be a millionaire. Those shares would cost you ~$87,850 today. Goal: $10 million Today: In order to have $10 million in Tesla stock today you need to own 28,571 shares. At $8.5 trillion: If Elon is able to reach the market capitalization milestone of $8.5 trillion, you'd need 4,723 shares to have ten million. Those shares would cost you ~$1.652 million today. At $400 billion EBITDA: If Elon is able to reach the EBITDA milestone of $400 billion (assuming the market applies a 40 multiple to that --> so the market cap would be $16 trillion), you'd need only 2,509 shares to have ten million. Those shares would cost you ~$878,150 today. Goal: $100 million Today: In order to have $100 million in Tesla stock today you need to own 285,714 shares. At $8.5 trillion: If Elon is able to reach the market capitalization milestone of $8.5 trillion, you'd need 47,235 shares to have $100 million. Those shares would cost you ~$16.5 million today. At $400 billion EBITDA: If Elon is able to reach the EBITDA milestone of $400 billion (assuming the market applies a 40 multiple to that --> so the market cap would be $16 trillion), you'd need 25,093 shares to have $100 million. Those shares would cost you ~$8.78 million today. Note: The above calculations assume maximum share dilution from Elon's comp plan, the 208 million shares in the Special Share Reserve (to make him whole on the 2018 comp plan) and the additional 60 million shares for employee stock option compensation.

$2.62 vs $12.94

$TSLA I got on a Tesla robotaxi 9 times today in Austin, Texas. In this process, I tried to compare the rates of Tesla and Uber on the route. In my experience, Tesla was all cheaper than Uber on all routes. Tesla was up to 67% cheaper on some routes. There are numerous variables in this information, such as time, traffic conditions, and so on. So, this information is for your reference only, and eat it only with salt. I will let you know the driving data on the route as an image in the comments.

2025 CEO Performance Award for Elon Musk Let’s design a new compensation plan for Elon Musk, modeled after the 2018 Tesla CEO Performance Award. The 2018 plan was a 10-year, 100% pay-for-performance structure with no salary or bonuses, focusing on stock options tied to market capitalization and operational milestones. We’ll adapt this framework to reflect Tesla’s current valuation, ambitious growth targets, and Elon’s role in driving innovation, while ensuring the plan incentivizes long-term value creation for shareholders. Overview Structure: 100% pay-for-performance, 10-year term (2025–2034), no salary, bonus, or time-based equity. Compensation Type: Stock options, vesting in tranches based on achieving dual-trigger milestones (Market Capitalization + Operational). Goal: Align Musk’s incentives with Tesla’s growth, aiming for a $5 trillion market cap by 2035 (a 5x increase), reflecting Elon’s vision of Tesla as an AI and robotics leader, not just an automaker. Tranches Number of Tranches: 12 stock option tranches, each equal to 1% of Tesla’s outstanding shares as of May 15, 2025. Tesla has approximately 3.2 billion outstanding shares (with Elon's 410,794,076 shares being 12.8% of the total). Thus, 1% equals ~32 million shares per tranche, or 384 million shares total if all tranches vest. At a current share price of ~$342 ($1.1 trillion market cap ÷ 3.2 billion shares), each tranche is worth ~$11 billion, totaling ~$131 billion if fully vested (though this value will fluctuate with stock price). Market Capitalization Milestones Starting Point: Tesla’s current market cap is $1.1 trillion. Target: Reach $5 trillion by 2035, with milestones increasing in $333 billion increments (to evenly distribute across 12 tranches). Measurement: Based on a 6-month trailing average and a 30-day trailing average of Tesla’s stock price (trading days only), consistent with the 2018 plan. Milestones: Tranche 1: $1.333 trillion Tranche 2: $1.666 trillion Tranche 3: $2.000 trillion Tranche 4: $2.333 trillion Tranche 5: $2.666 trillion Tranche 6: $3.000 trillion Tranche 7: $3.333 trillion Tranche 8: $3.666 trillion Tranche 9: $4.000 trillion Tranche 10: $4.333 trillion Tranche 11: $4.666 trillion Tranche 12: $5.000 trillion Operational Milestones Requirement: For each tranche to vest, Elon must achieve 1 Market Capitalization Milestone and 1 Operational Milestone (dual-trigger). Full vesting requires achieving 12 of 16 operational milestones alongside all market cap goals. Categories: Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA, reflecting Tesla’s growth in EV, autonomy, and robotics. Baseline (2024): Revenue: ~$97 billion (Tesla’s 2024 revenue, per recent reports). Adjusted EBITDA: ~$14 billion (achieved in 2022–2023, per historical data). Targets: Set to reflect ~15x revenue and ~21x Adjusted EBITDA growth over 10 years, mirroring the 2018 plan’s ambition (which used 2017 levels as a baseline). Revenue Targets (15x $97B = $1.455 trillion, distributed across 8 milestones): $150B, $250B, $350B, $500B, $650B, $800B, $1T, $1.5T Adjusted EBITDA Targets (21x $14B = $294 billion, distributed across 8 milestones): $20B, $35B, $50B, $75B, $100B, $150B, $200B, $294B Measurement: Cumulative over four consecutive fiscal quarters, as in the 2018 plan. Additional Conditions: Holding Period: Elon must hold shares for 5 years after exercising options, ensuring long-term alignment with shareholders. Clawback Provision: Options are subject to clawback if Tesla restates financials filed with the SEC, as in the 2018 plan. Role Requirement: Elon must remain CEO, Executive Chairman, or Chief Product Officer for the duration, with the CEO reporting to him if he steps down from that role. Adjustments: Market cap and operational milestones will be adjusted for significant acquisitions, spin-offs, or divestitures to ensure fairness. Rationale: Market Cap Goal: A $5 trillion target positions Tesla as a top global company (Microsoft and Apple are ~$3+ trillion). This aligns with Elon’s vision of Tesla reaching a $30 trillion valuation through robotics and autonomy, though this sets a more conservative 10-year goal. Operational Goals: The 15x revenue and 21x EBITDA growth targets mirror the 2018 plan’s ambition, reflecting Tesla’s shift toward AI (e.g., robotaxis, Optimus) and energy solutions. Revenue of $1.5 trillion and EBITDA of $294 billion are aggressive but achievable if Tesla captures significant market share in autonomy and robotics. Risk and Reward: The dual-trigger structure ensures Elon is rewarded only if Tesla grows both in valuation and fundamentals, protecting shareholders from speculative stock price inflation alone. The lack of salary or guaranteed equity keeps Elon’s compensation tied entirely to performance. This plan incentivizes Elon to drive Tesla toward becoming a multi-trillion-dollar AI and robotics leader, while ensuring shareholders benefit from sustainable growth. Note: this plan doesn't correct/address any injustice from striking the 2018 plan.