phil beisel@pbeisel
Terafab math
For “big” chips like Tesla’s AI5 (a half-reticle design, roughly 300–450 mm²), producing 100 million chips per year would require on the order of ~100k wafer starts per month, roughly the output of a single high-volume leading-edge fab.
At current industry efficiency, that translates to about 1–2 million sq ft of cleanroom space. Since cleanroom typically makes up 20–35% of total facility area, the initial Terafab phase would likely span ~4 to 10 million sq ft.
That puts the starting factory right in the same ballpark as Gigafactory Texas (~10 million sq ft).
Elon’s long-term target is a vastly higher combined volume of AI compute/memory chips for inference, far beyond the initial 100 million example.
However, the point of Terafab’s redesign is to break conventional fab assumptions, compressing more output into less space so that extreme production volumes become achievable.