Certus.hl
5.7K posts
Certus.hl
@CertusX
Making money, meeting friends, enjoying memes - Trader ₿ - Amateur guitarist 🎸 - Hyperliquid maxi 🐱
Price Discovery Katılım Aralık 2015
328 Takip Edilen161 Takipçiler
@maxpower_kek I left in late 2020 in December. Never had problems with anyone but felt myself kinda weird. It’s not multicultural like in US, it’s kinda felt like society is being replaced with non cultured people idk how to explain I think you understand pretty well
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Plz sir don’t make them come to Germany plz plz plz amen
iamyesyouareno@iamyesyouareno
This was their plan all along.
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@maxpower_kek I guess it’s the same as I remember but multiplied few times
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@CertusX If you go to the city it feels like 80% are Arabic. Walking on evenings alone at the city and you pass many migrants groups, no problem for a guy going to the gym but if I’d be a woman or old I wouldn’t feel safe.
Taxes are going up all the time, while infrastructure going down
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@maxpower_kek Yeah unfortunately there could appear demand for such solutions
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@heynikeasy Yup, long time didnt see. Usually we giga dump on mondays
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Market update:
Lot's of people calling tops without showing any chart so I would like to explain my poor thoughts here. It could be biased because I am all in coins.
$BTC
- In a range between 90k-110k over 3 months, but everyone is calling macro tops and bottoms in this range, while actually, nothing is happening on the weekly/monthly chart. As a trader, you should not call macro tops while the weekly and monthly charts look fine.
- We are still above the weekly EMA 21 (red box around 85k now), which is good for an uptrend.
- We are in a range, and as long as we don't break down and accept below it, I doubt we will see lower 70k. Shady pullbacks to lower 85k are still bullish and healthy (weekly EMA 21 retest, range low liquidation cleaning).
- The daily trend is bearish as long as we don’t reclaim 100k (mid-range + daily EMA 21). The possibility of filling last Monday's wick and going for the range low is increasing.
- Anyone calling a macro top while we stay in the range is just retarded. The trend is bullish.
$ETH
HTF CHART
Half of my money is in ETH, so I’m going to keep this part long because I believe ETH is the leader of altcoins. If ETH doesn’t go up, the general altcoin market won’t move either (only selective ones have performed well during the two year uptrend). So, ETH is important even if you don’t hold it.
- There are two different ranges on the chart. The first is a four year long range between $1.5k and $4k since 2021. The second is a $2k to $4k range that has been in play since last year. These consolidations will eventually lead to an upside breakout, but we don’t know when. That’s why I prefer to buy spot ETH and hold when the price is close to $2k. Eventually, we will break out above $4k, leading to an expansion phase, these long consolidations typically result in huge pumps, probably to $10k. The question is when.
- The $4k resistance has been tested three times in the past year, and each test weakens it. If we break above the red box (supply zone), I’m 99% sure that $4k will be taken out on the next test. But again, the question is when.
- I’d rather be a buyer in the green zone (demand zone) within this one year range and hold until we see an upside breakout. The invalidation is clear: as long as the price holds above $2k, my plan remains to buy the range low and wait for the breakout. Shady pullbacks below $2k are acceptable as long as we don’t see true acceptance below range low.
- As long as ETH trades below $3.5k, every pump into the red box will remain a bearish retest. A reclaim above $3.5k signals risk on for altcoins. Don’t try to catch bottoms on altcoins, in my opinion.
LTF CHART
- Green and red box will play big role in next 2 months. Buy in green, sell in red is a good play if you want to trade the range.
- Price is below H8 EMA200 is not good for upside trend, also retraced whole Q4 pump is also not preferred for bulls. Overall looks very bearish and ugly but it's in support zone range low.
- I wouldn't trade it as long as I see any price action, there is much better things to do. But these ugly highs I marked riding free shorts, It will be big if'' if we breakdown this 1 year range to downside below 2k.
- V shape recovery still in play but each day we spend below $3k, probilites is decreasing and if we don't do V shape, we will spend 2 more months in the green box, which is not good.
$ETH / $BTC
- Down 70% in 2 years is crazy. Just a downtrend without any range or significant bounce, brutal price action.
- The price has reached 2021 lows and is now at the only remaining support zone (green box). A bottom should form here, but before calling it, I’d prefer to wait for some trend shift, at least a breakout above 0.035.
- The probability of a bottom in this zone is very high, and I’m betting on it. I’m not calling the bottom, but I’m positioning for it. Be early if you want to make money, but know your risks.
- Even a bounce to the Fibonacci 61.8-78.6 zone would be enough to trigger a strong alt season, where people become euphoric and believe ETHBTC will break out to 0.08-0.09. But I expect the bounce to remain a bearish retest before another move to the lows. I don’t think this kind of brutal downtrend will result in a V-shape recovery anytime soon.
- My base case is a bounce to 0.06-0.07 while Ethereum breaks out above $4k, leading to an expansion phase until ETHBTC trades around 0.065. That would be the ultimate sell signal. At that point, euphoria will peak, people will expect further upside, but it will likely remain a bearish retest and mark the market top.
- If you’re accumulating ETH and utility coins, I believe this is a good time. In the past two years, we’ve only seen a BTC bull run and some selective altcoins performing well, most altcoins are still in a bear market, making new lows every month. A strong bounce could bring euphoria back into the market and trap more participants.
My utility coin holdings:
$ETH – Safe, long-term play
$AAVE – #1 DeFi, best Ethereum beta
$TAO – #1 AI play
$ENS – Second-best Ethereum beta
Thank you for reading. Any comments are appreciated and will motivate me to write more threads like this.
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What are you doing if this crypto stuff won’t work out?
Ponzi Trader@buyerofponzi
What are you guys going to do for the next few years
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@WazzCrypto ETH is the best asset to sell. You can litterally buy low, sell lower and it will be considered as profit
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Why is every Ethereum related marketing always showing ppl dumping $ETH 😭😭😭
Uniswap Labs 🦄@Uniswap
“It Just Works”
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It honestly sends me when .eth heads square up on you whenever there is a critique involving a price of ETH.
Like, why are you even here? This is first & foremost a capital/money market. It all comes down to a price ultimately. Better price = better tech (demand, attention, usage, adoption). All metrics are directly or indirectly boiled down to price. This is a fact, an axiom and you're a retard if you thin otherwise. Of course people are abandoning your chain, of course all your metrics are down, of course ETH (a whole fucking chain) is losing to individual apps on Solana (kek) in fees or engagement or mindshare or whatever.
The concept of "price doesn't matter" zen bs mentality that is being praised at EF is just absurd. Honestly, if you are defending ETH & making excuses for them at this point you're a cuckold.
Stop this BS. Send the price of $ETH fucking UP and all your problems will be solved. People will be using your chain again like they used to.
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