César Sabas

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César Sabas

@CesarSabas

Geopolitics 🌎 Security Policy @Univ_Toulouse Political Science USB International Studies UCV

Toulouse, Francia Katılım Eylül 2009
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César Sabas
César Sabas@CesarSabas·
El candidato debe ser Rubio, no Vance. Es Rubio quien tiene que defender el desastre de la deriva neocona de Trump en 2028. Vance que se prepare para después.
Clash Report@clashreport

JD Vance is reportedly becoming more isolated within Trump’s administration after Tulsi Gabbard resigned. His non-interventionist stance on Iran has reportedly put him at odds with Trump, while Marco Rubio has gained influence. Some reports also suggest Vance could skip a 2028 presidential run to avoid being tied to recent controversies. Source: Daily Mail

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Clash Report
Clash Report@clashreport·
BIG: Iran has begun rebuilding its ballistic missile production during the ceasefire, at a pace faster than Israeli and US intelligence predicted. While CENTCOM commander Admiral Brad Cooper testified to Congress that 90% of Iran's defense industrial base was destroyed and would take years to rebuild, updated intelligence shows a more complex picture. Roughly two thirds of Iran's missile launchers survived the war intact and have been moved out of sealed tunnels. Iran is now producing new ballistic missiles, launchers, and air defense systems in improvised underground facilities using surviving components, Russian assistance, and Chinese smuggled parts. Israeli defense officials estimate Iran could rebuild its drone fleet within months and scale up missile production within a year, possibly less. Source: Mako
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Clash Report
Clash Report@clashreport·
Trump officials say Venezuelan elections are “not even on Trump’s mind” right now. Source: WSJ
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César Sabas
César Sabas@CesarSabas·
Éstos días he expresado mi indignación con el sobrevuelo de aviones militares 🇺🇸 sobre Caracas. Pero no sé equivoquen, mi indignación es por la PROFUNDA DEBILIDAD en la que estamos. Por el contrario, Delcy Rodríguez está demostrando una inteligencia y REALISMO excepcional.
Molotov@ipoolgian

🚨 IMPORTANTE Funcionario del gobierno de EEUU dice que las elecciones en Venezuela ni siquiera están en la mente de Trump en este momento La guerra con Irán ha endurecido esa idea, dijo el funcionario, ya que ve el petróleo de Venezuela como una cobertura contra la agitación en los mercados energéticos mundiales. Además, el gobierno de Trump no quiere interrumpir la relación con Delcy Rodríguez, dijeron funcionarios de la Casa Blanca. "Delcy Rodríguez es dócil, está abierta a los negocios y mantiene la calma en el país" dijeron los funcionarios wsj.com/world/americas…

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Molotov
Molotov@ipoolgian·
🚨 IMPORTANTE Funcionario del gobierno de EEUU dice que las elecciones en Venezuela ni siquiera están en la mente de Trump en este momento La guerra con Irán ha endurecido esa idea, dijo el funcionario, ya que ve el petróleo de Venezuela como una cobertura contra la agitación en los mercados energéticos mundiales. Además, el gobierno de Trump no quiere interrumpir la relación con Delcy Rodríguez, dijeron funcionarios de la Casa Blanca. "Delcy Rodríguez es dócil, está abierta a los negocios y mantiene la calma en el país" dijeron los funcionarios wsj.com/world/americas…
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Branislav Slantchev
Branislav Slantchev@slantchev·
I don’t often agree with Kagan but he seems to be right that this is what Trump is hoping for. He started a war without a plan, wasted billions of dollars in equipment, failed to prepare obvious targets for defense, which resulted in unnecessary deaths of American soldiers, hollowed out the Pentagon’s ability to assess targets, which resulted in us murdering over 150 civilians, mostly girls, when we bombed their elementary school in Minab, handed Iran incredible strategic victory by allowing them to take de facto control of the Strait of Hormuz and show that we are powerless to stop it, exposed the strategic isolation of the U.S. that his antagonism to our allies has brought us in, and now he’s trying to slink away with some cockamamie cover that he’s going to use to claim victory. The Iran hawks are clamoring for him to “finish the job” but he’s already finished, and Iran knows it. He doesn’t have a mandate to send ground troops, and even he he orders more bombing, it will be a cosmetic tactic designed to disguise the defeat. What can you possibly accomplish by trying the exact same thing after it failed the first time except now you have depleted a lot of the ammo and Congress has gotten more assertive about not expanding the war?
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Robert A. Pape
Robert A. Pape@ProfessorPape·
Here’s the most detailed response so far by Iran Hormuz and all nuclear material remain under Iranian control If so, Trump has chosen complete surrender And to allow Iran to emerge as the 4th center of world power — for now
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Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش
Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش@citrinowicz·
The wars and the strategic fallout that followed should force a fundamental reassessment of the approach toward Iran. Iran has not and will not become more moderate or constructive , quite the opposite. But these conflicts have demonstrated that kinetic force is not necessarily the solution. In fact, the reality that emerged may be even more dangerous. More broadly, the long-standing assumption that military means alone could produce positive political change in Iran has effectively collapsed. This is, incidentally, the most significant blow to Netanyahu and to the hardliners in Washington who built much of their worldview around the idea of a military solution to the Iranian challenge. It is time to go back to the drawing board and think differently: differently about Iran, differently about the prospects for influencing its behavior, and above all differently about the role of military force in weakening Tehran. Threats and military pressure should remain part of the toolbox, but they cannot continue to be the sole pillar of strategy. The time has come to think differently — and to act differently. #iran #IranWar‌
Ali Vaez@AliVaez

DC's Iran hawks got two wars, nearly every conceivable sanction designation, a blockade, threw a wrench in global economy and will still claim that just a little more pressure and a touch more bombing will magically yield the concessions they still won't be satisfied with.

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החדשות - N12
החדשות - N12@N12News·
גורם ישראלי בכיר: ההסכם המסתמן רע כי הוא מאותת לאיראנים שיש להם נשק יעיל לא פחות מגרעין והוא מצר הורמוז. טראמפ סבור שההסכם הוא בסך הכול כלכלי וכולל פתיחה הדדית של מצר הורמוז, כאשר כל התקדמות תלויה בהוצאת הגרעין. בפועל, לא ברור מה יקרה אחרי שלב א' @amit_segal
החדשות - N12@N12News

הורמוז ייפתח, איראן תמכור נפט: ההסכם המתגבש עם איראן | הפסקת האש תוארך ב-60 ימים במהלכם ידונו גם בגרעין. המלחמה עם לבנון תסתיים n12.pro/4fEgviF | @BarakRavid

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César Sabas
César Sabas@CesarSabas·
@SteeYefri No me malinterpretes, creo que Delcy se está moviendo muy bien. Pero lógicamente no somos un país que nos iremos a la guerra con EEUU. No somos Irán.
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Stee Yefri
Stee Yefri@SteeYefri·
@CesarSabas 😂😂😂 tremendo analista va estar muy fuerte noviembre creo que no estás viendo el panorama 3 de enero hubo acuerdo Venezuela está recuperando su lugar en las instituciones y su deuda restructurandose estos creyéndose la campaña electoral.
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César Sabas
César Sabas@CesarSabas·
No dejo de pensar sobre la enorme suerte con la que contó Chávez. Llamó alcohólico a Bush en pleno territorio 🇺🇸. Resulta que EEUU la tenía más fácil de lo que se pensaba: un bombardeo ligero y hubiese habido rendición incondicional.
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César Sabas
César Sabas@CesarSabas·
"Total Win for Iran".
Eyal Ofer אייל עופר@Eyalo365

None of the war’s objectives were achieved. The regime did not fall. The Regime proven resilience and can continue to project military power beyond its border and on all GCC states. The nuclear program was not eliminated. The enriched uranium remains on Iranian soil. Production of long-range ballistic missiles will be able to continue. Funding of the proxies continues. And in the end, the result is that the return to routine is exactly the same as the days before the fighting — plus a bonus in the form of the release of frozen Iranian assets and sanctions removal. Total Win for Iran.

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César Sabas
César Sabas@CesarSabas·
@rodrigu26786308 Yo también me resisto a creerlo, pero cada vez hay más señales que apuntan en dirección contraria.
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Amichai Stein
Amichai Stein@AmichaiStein1·
הבעיה הכי גדולה בהסכם בין ארה"ב לאיראן: זה החסינות שאיראן מקבלת מפני תקיפות עתידיות.
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EndGameWW3 🇺🇸
EndGameWW3 🇺🇸@EndGameWW3·
There is no misdirection or 5D chess, Trump gave in, people can stop pretending that Trump had a master plan, his master plan was appeasement...
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Ragıp Soylu
Ragıp Soylu@ragipsoylu·
Iran successfully created a leverage, Strait of Hormuz, which didn’t exist before at all, and then negotiated a way out for itself based on that. Pretty smart. As we say in Turkish, Iranians are pretty good at playing games
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Keşfet

@amit_segal @SteeYefri @rodrigu26786308 @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates