
Christine Verbeke
461 posts

Christine Verbeke
@ChVerbeke
Space Weather Expert at @CmPA_KULeuven and @NASA #Scicom |#Mominscience Dreaming of writing a children's book on the Sun-Earth relationship 🇧🇪 - 🇳🇱 - 🇺🇸






UPDATE [14:45 UT]: Surprisingly we are continuing at G3 storm level as solar wind speed remains very high (~900 km/s), Bt shows signs of strengthening (above 15 nT) and Bz remains moderately negative (around -10 nT). The DST index has dipped to -227 nT, the fourth lowest value this solar cycle so far (and it may drop further). As dusk approaches Europe it appears we may be in for more mid latitude aurora tonight, possibly low latitude aurora.









The shock wave driven by the CME associated with the X1.9 flare seems to have arrived. This is indicated by ACE magnetic field data, although the plasma data may not be trusted. The transit time to 1 AU was ~25.5 hours, not one of the fastest, but quite fast nonetheless.


For those that always ask, it's just personal preference but even as an experienced forecaster, I will always choose not to speak on forecast details, especially strength, until we have more data than a few frames of imagery available. It does no good in my opinion.




















