Chanakya Nexus

The Rupee just crossed ₹95 to the dollar. Here's what's really happening 🧵 Two years ago, 1 USD = ₹83. Today, 1 USD = ₹95.6. That's a 14% depreciation in under two years — one of the steepest sustained slides since 2013. Here's what's driving it: 🛢️ Oil dependency Nearly 4 out of every 5 barrels of oil India consumes comes from overseas. Every time crude spikes, energy companies scramble for more dollars — and the rupee takes the hit instantly. With Brent crude back above $101, this pressure is very real right now. 📤 Foreign investors are pulling out Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn $18.5 billion from Indian equities. In March 2026 alone, FPIs pulled out over ₹1.04 lakh crore ($11 billion), creating a massive dollar shortage. 📦 US tariffs hitting exports US tariffs on India stand at 50% — the highest globally — compared to around 16% on ASEAN economies, India's biggest competitors in the US market. Sectors like gems, jewellery, and textiles have recorded a 34% YoY decline in exports. 📉 Widening trade deficit India's current account deficit for this fiscal year is estimated at $40–50 billion — wider than recent years. A structurally wide CAD is one of the most reliable predictors of sustained rupee depreciation. Who wins from this? IT exporters like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech and pharma companies like Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's, and Cipla are the biggest beneficiaries. Their revenues are in USD but reported in rupees — every INR weakness directly boosts their margins. Will it hit ₹100? No mainstream institution projects ₹100 in 2026. Bank of America and ING project recovery to ₹86–87. The ₹100 level is a bearish multi-year scenario for 2028–2030, requiring oil above $130 and major tariff escalation simultaneously. The rupee isn't collapsing — it's adjusting. But the adjustment is hitting every Indian's fuel bill, travel costs, and imported goods. What's your take — is RBI doing enough? 👇

The Rupee just crossed ₹95 to the dollar. Here's what's really happening 🧵 Two years ago, 1 USD = ₹83. Today, 1 USD = ₹95.6. That's a 14% depreciation in under two years — one of the steepest sustained slides since 2013. Here's what's driving it: 🛢️ Oil dependency Nearly 4 out of every 5 barrels of oil India consumes comes from overseas. Every time crude spikes, energy companies scramble for more dollars — and the rupee takes the hit instantly. With Brent crude back above $101, this pressure is very real right now. 📤 Foreign investors are pulling out Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn $18.5 billion from Indian equities. In March 2026 alone, FPIs pulled out over ₹1.04 lakh crore ($11 billion), creating a massive dollar shortage. 📦 US tariffs hitting exports US tariffs on India stand at 50% — the highest globally — compared to around 16% on ASEAN economies, India's biggest competitors in the US market. Sectors like gems, jewellery, and textiles have recorded a 34% YoY decline in exports. 📉 Widening trade deficit India's current account deficit for this fiscal year is estimated at $40–50 billion — wider than recent years. A structurally wide CAD is one of the most reliable predictors of sustained rupee depreciation. Who wins from this? IT exporters like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech and pharma companies like Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's, and Cipla are the biggest beneficiaries. Their revenues are in USD but reported in rupees — every INR weakness directly boosts their margins. Will it hit ₹100? No mainstream institution projects ₹100 in 2026. Bank of America and ING project recovery to ₹86–87. The ₹100 level is a bearish multi-year scenario for 2028–2030, requiring oil above $130 and major tariff escalation simultaneously. The rupee isn't collapsing — it's adjusting. But the adjustment is hitting every Indian's fuel bill, travel costs, and imported goods. What's your take — is RBI doing enough? 👇

The Rupee just crossed ₹95 to the dollar. Here's what's really happening 🧵 Two years ago, 1 USD = ₹83. Today, 1 USD = ₹95.6. That's a 14% depreciation in under two years — one of the steepest sustained slides since 2013. Here's what's driving it: 🛢️ Oil dependency Nearly 4 out of every 5 barrels of oil India consumes comes from overseas. Every time crude spikes, energy companies scramble for more dollars — and the rupee takes the hit instantly. With Brent crude back above $101, this pressure is very real right now. 📤 Foreign investors are pulling out Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn $18.5 billion from Indian equities. In March 2026 alone, FPIs pulled out over ₹1.04 lakh crore ($11 billion), creating a massive dollar shortage. 📦 US tariffs hitting exports US tariffs on India stand at 50% — the highest globally — compared to around 16% on ASEAN economies, India's biggest competitors in the US market. Sectors like gems, jewellery, and textiles have recorded a 34% YoY decline in exports. 📉 Widening trade deficit India's current account deficit for this fiscal year is estimated at $40–50 billion — wider than recent years. A structurally wide CAD is one of the most reliable predictors of sustained rupee depreciation. Who wins from this? IT exporters like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech and pharma companies like Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's, and Cipla are the biggest beneficiaries. Their revenues are in USD but reported in rupees — every INR weakness directly boosts their margins. Will it hit ₹100? No mainstream institution projects ₹100 in 2026. Bank of America and ING project recovery to ₹86–87. The ₹100 level is a bearish multi-year scenario for 2028–2030, requiring oil above $130 and major tariff escalation simultaneously. The rupee isn't collapsing — it's adjusting. But the adjustment is hitting every Indian's fuel bill, travel costs, and imported goods. What's your take — is RBI doing enough? 👇

The Rupee just crossed ₹95 to the dollar. Here's what's really happening 🧵 Two years ago, 1 USD = ₹83. Today, 1 USD = ₹95.6. That's a 14% depreciation in under two years — one of the steepest sustained slides since 2013. Here's what's driving it: 🛢️ Oil dependency Nearly 4 out of every 5 barrels of oil India consumes comes from overseas. Every time crude spikes, energy companies scramble for more dollars — and the rupee takes the hit instantly. With Brent crude back above $101, this pressure is very real right now. 📤 Foreign investors are pulling out Foreign portfolio investors have withdrawn $18.5 billion from Indian equities. In March 2026 alone, FPIs pulled out over ₹1.04 lakh crore ($11 billion), creating a massive dollar shortage. 📦 US tariffs hitting exports US tariffs on India stand at 50% — the highest globally — compared to around 16% on ASEAN economies, India's biggest competitors in the US market. Sectors like gems, jewellery, and textiles have recorded a 34% YoY decline in exports. 📉 Widening trade deficit India's current account deficit for this fiscal year is estimated at $40–50 billion — wider than recent years. A structurally wide CAD is one of the most reliable predictors of sustained rupee depreciation. Who wins from this? IT exporters like TCS, Infosys, Wipro, HCL Tech and pharma companies like Sun Pharma, Dr Reddy's, and Cipla are the biggest beneficiaries. Their revenues are in USD but reported in rupees — every INR weakness directly boosts their margins. Will it hit ₹100? No mainstream institution projects ₹100 in 2026. Bank of America and ING project recovery to ₹86–87. The ₹100 level is a bearish multi-year scenario for 2028–2030, requiring oil above $130 and major tariff escalation simultaneously. The rupee isn't collapsing — it's adjusting. But the adjustment is hitting every Indian's fuel bill, travel costs, and imported goods. What's your take — is RBI doing enough? 👇