Chief

@KTrader20 As soon as your OR gets tested do you keep it for the rest of the session or do you erase it since it has already been tested?

HOD might be from the 30 second OR high. We shall see.

reminder

Holding yesterdays value and the prior 3d composite then still looking for the single prints higher. Otherwise will be targeting the lower distribution below Tuesdays profile. Open interest is rather flat so a lower day is expected to start. Macro wise we are hitting into the VAH of current range

Look above ONH and fail, a classic fade setup that always catches my eye, especially on a true gap up that tests ONH immediately. Order flow made this one a no-brainer today. #ES_F

HTF analysis on ES using weekly volume profiles. Showing some of the things I like to look at on HTFs such as weekly open, volume building (or rejecting) above/below prior week high/low, LVNs etc.

@OflowTrading Would be awesome if you could do some educational DOM series so more traders could give it a chance since at first it’s really tricky and scary to watch.

First time watching a DOM it looks like chaos. After a few sessions you start seeing things no chart can show you. Once it clicks, you never go back. OflowDOM. Native to NinjaTrader 8. oflowtrading.com

Trade of the day: Another clean buyer absorbtion near RTH High this morning. Agressive buyers hitting the tape between 6639 and 6645 on ES (blue circles). We're below OVN high, and near prior week POC and prior day close. Below 6636 --> short scalp opportunity.

@fvbioaraujo Do you wait for the footprint to close, or enter looking at the agressive orders and volume on the DOM?

#es_f Two examples of trapped participants, both buyers and sellers, where I was able to identify their activity and exploit their pain points by going in the opposite direction and profiting from it. Both positions combined, I risked about 5 points each, totalling 10 points, for 31 points reward, 1:3 RR

Market profiling is a delicate art and science. There is value in looking at profiles through the lens of time. This removes level-based discretion. And we know there are certain profiles that command a lot of attention (previous day's RTH, rolling 5-day, 30-day etc). My preference is to combine static profiling with dynamic profiles intraday. This is the art part of the process. Yes, I do incorporate some quantitative processes in my dynamic profiling, but a large part of still comes down to my experience and my personal discretion of the terrain I believe we are negotiating in real-time.

Textbook

how to spot bottoms:

Volume Profile trading. Don't trade the middle where all the volume is. Trade the edges where it's thin. Wait for the slowdown and the absorption. Patience over action. oflowtrading.com

Weakness has been evident in the market even on days that have traded higher prices. We've had good excess highs on most days for the last 2 weeks and less-than-great excess lows on many days. POCs have generally been in the lower half of the range. If you can spot this forming early on (this morning is a great example), it can be helpful to avoid buying into an excess high and vice versa. If you are a more short term trader (as I am), this same principle applies on shorter profiles as well. $SPY $QQQ #ES_F #NQ_F

Sometimes it's easy to forget how lucky we are when we open our fridge and there's food, and turn on the tap for fresh water, or wake up in a warm house. Thankful for those things.

I don't size up because I feel strongly about a trade. I size up when multiple independent signals converge. Technical setup looks good. Vol behavior confirms it. Skew is supportive. Dealer positioning aligns. When all of those point the same direction, conviction goes up. That's when I take more risk. When only one or two signals fire, I may still sometimes take the trade. Smaller. Lower conviction. The biggest losses in trading come from oversizing on a single signal. "The chart looked great" has never protected anyone when vol explodes and skew flips against you overnight. Your conviction should be a function of how many independent data points agree. If you can't name at least three reasons the trade makes sense, your size should reflect that uncertainty. Defined risk backed by data > opinions.

ES: Very quick momentum scalp before the cash open. This is one of my favourite momentum setups!! Tight bracketing followed by another even tighter range above the prior range's value area. But don't ignore the bigger picture! We were building this pressure at the edge of a larger volume node. This what I call the transitionary phase of the auction.

2/12 $ES older replay and I have an hour long video explaining sell off days. engrave this kind of tape in your head if you struggle on uptrend/downtrend days. focus on what actually happens VS numerical order flow data. either aggro/passive

Metacognition is. Aka self-reflection, self-analyzing, self-everything. Everything is within you. You analyze your analysis, your thoughts. Why did you do this? Why did you react to this? Pattern recognition is inside this umbrella. This is why journaling is GOAT for trading. This leads to ADAPTATION, which is what Albert Einstein told us when someone asked: What intelligence mean to him? The ability to adapt is the sole reason for survivability. In order to do so, cells must change it's own machinery, mechanism of action to adapt. And so do humans as a whole, we change our ways of reaction, actions => Market evolves. Inefficiencies get more efficient. Opportunities close up. So there you go, that's your alpha for Friday the 13th. See you on the next one.

Price is the advertisement. Time is the judge. Volume is the vote. Develop an understanding of these three can provide a contextual view of the market. 1. Price is an advertising mechanism. price = invitation, not an agreement. with this framework in mind, price goes up to advertise to sellers and goes down to advertise to buyers - an exploration process to confirm value. 2. Time regulates all advertised opportunities. Opportunity decay- over time setup loses edge + anomalies are relevant over a certain period of time after which they become less important. 3. Volume determines the success or failure of these advertised opportunities. As discussed earlier price is an advertisement, volume is the type and nature of participation at this advertisement. Increased participation with aggressive conviction on a breakout/breakdown = acceptance. Lack thereof = failed auction.