Richard retweetledi

talked to a seller last week
store doing $15k/month profit, wanted $500k for it
“everyone keeps telling me it’s worth this much”
yeah, because inflated valuations get you excited
but excited sellers and actual buyers are two different things
here’s what nobody tells you about ecom valuations:
you can list your store for whatever number you want
$500k? sure
$1M? why not
but listing price and selling price are two completely different things
your store sits there for 6 months with zero offers
then you drop the price 40% out of desperation
the real problem is sellers compare ecom stores to the wrong things
“physical businesses sell for 3-5x profit”
yeah, a restaurant with a lease, equipment, and a location
“SaaS companies get 10x revenue”
yeah, with recurring revenue, low churn, and actual moats
your dropshipping store that could get banned tomorrow is not the same
here’s the actual range right now:
low end: 1-2 months of profit
high end: 3-4x annual profit
and that high end? you need to check EVERY box
most stores sit at 2-2.5x annual profit if they’re lucky
what actually gets you to 3-4x:
TIME - you need 18+ months of consistent history, buyers want to see you survived multiple seasons and didn’t just catch one viral moment
CLEAN RECORD - one angry customer can kill your deal, buyers dig through everything during due diligence, BBB complaints, social media comments, customer service emails, reviews, any complaint will be found and used against you
TRADEMARK - if you don’t own your brand name legally, you’re selling a house built on rented land
ORIGINAL MEDIA - if you’re running ads with stolen content or fake “as seen in Forbes” badges, you’re a lawsuit waiting to happen, buyers see that and run
DIVERSIFIED TRAFFIC - if 100% of your sales come from Meta you’re one ban away from zero, buyers hate that, Google is solid and consistent, add Snapchat, TikTok, Pinterest when you can, and actually work your email and SMS to increase LTV, multi-channel stores sell for way more
NOT A PUMP AND DUMP - if you’re sourcing from Kalodata and riding a trend, everyone knows it, you’ll get offered 1x if you’re lucky
REAL SUPPORT - if you’re running subscriptions without an actual support team, refunds and chargebacks will kill the next owner
because here’s what buyers under $150k actually care about:
1. Can I sustain or grow this compared to where it’s at now?
if your entire strategy is “I got lucky with this one ad” they can’t replicate that
1. How long until I make my money back?
if they’re paying $100k and profit is $3k/month, that’s 33 months to break even, way too long, they want 12-18 months max
1. What are the risks?
Shopify payments shutting down, BBB complaints piling up, FTC coming after claims, FDA issues, ad accounts getting banned
if any of these are likely, your valuation drops fast
above $150k the questions change:
buyers want to know about durability and expansion
can this run for 3-5 years without them?
is there room to scale into retail or new channels?
does the brand have actual equity or is it just revenue?
so when you hear a valuation that makes you smile
ask yourself:
would YOU pay that much for a business with these risks?
if the answer is no, neither will anyone else
the valuation gap right now is brutal
sellers think: “I built this, it’s worth a fortune”
buyers think: “cool, but what am I actually buying and what can go wrong”
and that’s why most stores never sell
not because they aren’t profitable
but because the seller’s ego got in the way of the math
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