Chris

10.7K posts

Chris

Chris

@Chris_Somewhere

Canada Katılım Aralık 2010
528 Takip Edilen431 Takipçiler
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
China has done very well. It's the belief that Chinese feel the CPC works for the people. That's far more valuable then voting between a few crooks running in the West. This survey was done by a Western firm, trying to promote Western democracy, lest anyone accuse this of bias
Arnaud Bertrand@RnaudBertrand

The results of this yearly survey by the Alliance of Democracies are always fascinating because it directly challenges what we think democracy is: allianceofdemocracies.org/democracy-perc… The countries whose citizens most perceive themselves as living in democracy are: - China - Switzerland - Singapore - Israel - Norway - Vietnam - The ROC For those 7 countries, more than 75% of people reply 7-10 to the question "Think about your country today. How democratic do you think it is?" where 0 is "not at all democratic" and 10 is "very democratic". Now let's look at the list of countries where less than half the people believe they live in democracy: - Japan - Pakistan - France - Nigeria - Iran - Peru - Morocco - Turkey - Ukraine - Hungary - Venezuela - Greece Notice something? People's perception of whether they live in a democracy or not is not at all aligned with procedural democracy: whether people vote for their country's leaders or not, and whether a country has the procedural attributes of liberal democracy. In fact the majority of countries where people don't believe they're in democracy have these procedural attributes (including France, my country)! And half the countries where an immense majority of people - three fourth - believe they're in a democracy don't have them. So what gives? Other results of the survey give a clue. And the biggest one is that the perception of democracy is extremely correlated with the percentage of people who believe the government serves the majority as opposed to a minority. For instance China scores highest in the world on this, with almost everyone agreeing with the sentence "my government usually acts in the interests of most people in my country". This is after all quite important for democracy: the whole point is that it's supposed to be "for the people", isn't it? I've always had a hard time with the notion that "democracy equals voting", especially coming from France were we keep voting but nothing meaningful changes and the government clearly doesn't care much about the population when it enacts policies, instead chasing elusive ideologies or the support of a small group of elites. I think democracy is emptied of its substance when it is reduced to its procedural vision. It's much more important that a democracy - to qualify as such - lives up to its spirit, rather than its law. Meaning that rulers need to grasp their society in its interests and in its realities, and be able to act thereupon in a way a) that delivers, b) serves the true interests of the people (as opposed to other interests) and c) where there's an emphasis put on truth and accountability. And I think that, as we can see with this survey's results, the people aren't fooled: they understand when the spirit of democracy is broken, even when the procedure is there, and vice versa. And countries where that's the case need to reflect long and hard on this.

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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@neuroglioma @Pirat_Nation They were clearly hoping that something like DeepSeek would fundamentally lower their operating costs. That never happened.
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BullishRaccoon
BullishRaccoon@neuroglioma·
The part nobody is talking about is what this says about the economics of generative video as a product category not just Sora specifically A million a day in compute with 2.1 million lifetime revenue means the unit economics were not just bad they were structurally impossible at current inference costs This wasnt a marketing failure or a timing problem.. The math literally could not work at any realistic scale And giving Disney less than an hour tells you the shutdown was a financial emergency not a strategic pivot.. You dont ghost a billion dollar partner unless the bleeding forced the decision before the comms team even had time to draft an email
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Pirat_Nation 🔴
Pirat_Nation 🔴@Pirat_Nation·
New details from the video generator Sora OpenAI shutdown - It was losing roughly $1 million per day on compute costs. - User numbers had dropped below 500,000 from a peak of over 1 million. - Disney executives received less than an hour's notice despite ongoing talks for a major integration.
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Charles mccormack
Charles mccormack@Charlesmcormack·
Shooting someone with small arms ok, bayoneting ok, throwing a grenade ok, mortars and artillery all ok but not a drone. This is not concerning yet, it’s the robotics to come that will be concerning. However if someone invades the uk I say we kill them with any means necessary. We don’t allow them to kill us in a humane way first.
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@admcollingwood Given the shortage of Chinese rare earths and lack of replacements in a timely manner in the Western world, depletion isn't as crazy as one might think. reuters.com/business/aeros… It takes years to build a rare earth processing industry. It's also why the US loss of radars is big
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
States won't 'run out' in the conventional sense, but they will have to strictly ration air defence interceptors, keeping them for the most vital targets. It'll be interesting to see if the US prioritises the resupply of air defences for its at risk bases or Israel, and what Israel and the Saudis choose to defend, and what they choose to leave defenseless.
Bloomberg@business

After a weekend with some of the heaviest Iranian ballistic missile attacks on the Gulf yet, strikes have consumed at least 2,400 interceptors — approaching those countries’ known prewar stockpiles bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@CheekyMeeple They don't seem to realize this, but trying to impose a political ideology is going to backfire and undermine support for the very ideology they are trying to desperately build support for.
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Cheeky Meeple
Cheeky Meeple@CheekyMeeple·
This is an example of why people are tired, why people have gone from indifference to distaste with corporate gaming companies. None of this is Warcraft. None of this is Darkspear activity or world lore driven. This is forced ideology. They didn't even try to make it make sense.
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Alexander Stahel 🌻
Alexander Stahel 🌻@BurggrabenH·
Demand destruction won’t fix this. The world cannot function with 10–15% less energy. We are 15mbpd short of crude & products versus my Feb baseline. If the Red Sea route remains open to the South (VLCCs) and assuming some VIP toll booths treatment (like 20 « Pakistani » vessels), it reduces to 12mbpd in April. Some of the gap is compensated with SPR releases, but with highly uneven results due to location & quality issues. During Covid, when OECD, China, and most major economies briefly shut down (Chinese literally locked people up in their apartments), demand fell by 16.5mbpd at peak, and only for a few weeks. Most demand snapped back within weeks. Demand normalized within months, adjusted for the recession and ex-jet. Gasoline, diesel, & bunker demand are highly inelastic. People don’t stop driving or shipping because prices rise. Jet and naphtha are more elastic, but cannot fix the lack of crude at the refinery level evenly. By April, some governments will learn that reopening the Strait is not optional, and that it takes real resources to do so. That’s when panic begins. This has the potential to become the mother of all crises. Respect it. It’s highly likely to get real awkward. And pay attention to the political blame game that’s already in full swing and isn’t helping. Eventually this crisis gets fixed and yes, the invisible hand of oil is incredibly powerful. But it won’t return to pre-war barrel counting anytime soon and certainly not with policies like this.
Alexander Stahel 🌻 tweet media
Javier Blas@JavierBlas

COLUMN: Five weeks into the Third Gulf War, the math of oil-barrel counting is intractable: The world is short of the black stuff. Enter demand destruction. @Opinion bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@The_Banned_Vids You realize that you are posting a war crime? I'm not surprised that when the Russians capture Ukrainian drone operators, they are treated much more harshly than regular soldiers, which these days in the AFU are usually conscripts who don't want to be there.
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𝚂𝙽𝙸𝙿𝙴𝙳™
𝚂𝙽𝙸𝙿𝙴𝙳™@The_Banned_Vids·
Feels like a predator playing with prey before the inevitable🇷🇺 Historical Footage shows a Ukrainian FPV drone chasing a lone Russian soldier in the field!
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@GlennLuk @Noahpinion The alternative is too ideologically painful for liberals to come to terms with. Liberalism is a failed ideology, the way the USSR was. The next couple of decades are going to be a huge shock for those who believe in "American exceptionalism" or the inevitability of Liberalism.
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@Jemmathin @SmashJT It's not that easy. The script and story of modern games is often cringe like Dragon Age Veilguard. If it were as easy as an asset swap, the modding community would have been able to solve the problem. The dialogue, story, and gameplay of DEI games has also really declined.
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Jem
Jem@Jemmathin·
@SmashJT 3 years or less until we can say "Grok, replace DEI in this game with Feminine Beauty" and 17 seconds later the game and graphics will be corrected and playable.
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Smash JT
Smash JT@SmashJT·
Name a bigger downgrade. Find whoever did this and fire them immediately.
Smash JT tweet mediaSmash JT tweet media
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@HeroicLife @ShaykhSulaiman The Russians have gone out of their way to minimize civilian causalties. Otherwise the Ukrainians would be in a much worse situation. It's the US and Israel that are bombing schools. The Western world loves to fabricate fake atrocities for Russia, Iran, Palestine, and China.
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David Veksler ₿🔑👌
Russia "saving" Cuba is geopolitical opportunism, not humanitarianism. Russia is simultaneously leveling Ukrainian cities, bombing schools and hospitals, and kidnapping children. One oil tanker to embarrass the US doesn't make you the good guys. It makes you a country that does what's strategically useful and calls it charity.
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@RealChaosOrder @RWApodcast Not at all. The Russians have been winning. Any ceasefire would be like the ceasefire Iran negotiated after the 12 day war. Russia needs to finish off Ukraine and indeed utterly discredit NATO. Only then can Russia be safe.
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Chaos & Order
Chaos & Order@RealChaosOrder·
@RWApodcast Why be surprised? The longer it goes on, the weaker Russia becomes in absolute terms (regardless of outcome of the Ukraine war.) Your best bet would be to cut your losses and start rebuilding. You'd still be ahead of the game with a cease-fire in place.
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Russians With Attitude
Russians With Attitude@RWApodcast·
Not a fan of the development that Finland and the Baltic states have stopped denying that they let the Ukrainian military use their airspace. It has happened throughout the war, but as of very recently it has become more common and they publicly acknowledge it. Bad things ahead
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@RWApodcast Do you see the images of what Iran did to Dubai? Unless Putin is willing to do the same to the nations that the Ukrainians use to fly their drones through, this will keep happening until Ukraine is finally defeated. Deterrence will otherwise not be established.
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Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@odd_angry_shot @ekwufinance The US is too weak to defend the GCC. That's why it has been forced to retreat and is going into triage mode to only protect Israel. You are losing a war you started.
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the odd angry shot
the odd angry shot@odd_angry_shot·
@ekwufinance Ummm this battle with Iran is exactly what the US should have done in 1979, instead it's been 47 years of death and destruction by Iran in the middle east. Finally the US is finishing the job.
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Lukas Ekwueme
Lukas Ekwueme@ekwufinance·
This is the end of the petrodollar The deal was that the US would provide the GCC ruling families with military support. In exchange, the ruling families promised to sell their oil in USD and recycle their vast surpluses into US assets. This was crucial for the US, as it had just defaulted on the world by ending the convertibility of USD to gold. With the petrodollar in place, the USD was now backed by oil - the lifeblood of our economy. Now the first war has broken out, the GCC nations have quickly realized that this was a one-sided deal. Allowing US military bases on their soil and letting the US use their airspace and land to launch attacks against Iran has put a target on their backs. Instead of being defended, the US pulled air defense equipment out of the GCC to defend Israel, and now they are being threatened to join the war against Iran or face consequences. Iran is in full control of the Strait of Hormuz and is letting ships through if oil is paid in yuan, not in USD. A decoupling from the US with new defense alliances makes sense for the GCC. This would mean less demand for dollars, less demand for Treasuries, less demand for US equities at a time in which the US badly needs it.
Lukas Ekwueme tweet media
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@ekwufinance It took them a lot longer than it should have to realize this truth. This is going to have huge consequences for the US, especially when the GCC states inevitably start pulling most of their money outside of the US and pricing oil in Yuan. It could trigger a US financial crisis
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Collingwood 🇬🇧
Collingwood 🇬🇧@admcollingwood·
Contrary to the (as usual, vacuous-bordering-on-glib) mainstream analysis, the risk to China does not come from the fact "it gets most of its oil from Hormuz, bro", but from global economic catastrophe reducing the purchasing power of its export customers. That is an entirely different matter, especially when some of the hit will be balanced by the fact many nations will want to accelerate their diversification away from exposure to oil and gas toward renewables, for which China is the only game in town when it comes from having the capacity to facilitate that.
David Fishman@pretentiouswhat

Monday morning China energy update: 30+ days into the Iran war and China's standing re: primary fuels and power is looking very resilient overall: Coal: Domestic coal prices rose modestly in March, then stabilized. No sign of a supply crunch. Coal is currently doing exactly what it’s supposed to do in China’s energy system, backstopping the power and industrial sectors when external energy risks rise. In contrast to the global energy inflation episode in 2022, coal is not really being pulled into a broader panic bid this time. Higher shipping costs and some gas-to-coal switching pulled up regional premiums, but Chinese coal has been almost entirely insulated from that. Oil: Despite heightened risk, China does not appear to be drawing meaningfully on its oil reserves. Crude imports have remained high, thanks to supply diversification and momentum from earlier stock‑building. I'm seen analysis saying it's plausible inflows are even *still* outpacing refinery demand, keeping reserves not just flat but even still rising. Compared with 2022, the cushion is much thicker. Larger stockpiles and a less oil‑intensive marginal demand (thanks to the rise of EVs and generally higher rates of electrification) mean the shock is being absorbed with little visible strain Natural gas: LNG is where an adjustment is most visible. Imports have fallen ~25% as prices spiked and Qatari supply was disrupted, implying some drawdown of commercial LNG inventories. But this still looks mostly like price‑driven demand response rather than true physical supply stress, with buyers pulling back from spot and leaning more on domestic/pipeline gas and substitution exercised where possible (e.g. coal instead of gas). This is following 2022 quite closely. When LNG prices spike, China becomes a swing buyer, stepping back rather than bidding up at any cost. Power: Essentially no visible impact. Any MoM movement in power prices can be attributed to seasonal fluctuations and normal supply/demand adjustments, not changes in fuel costs. Compared to 2022, the key point is power costs aren't going anywhere because coal prices aren't going anywhere. Other: Outside of primary fuels, system stress is showing up mainly as supply tightness-driven or logistics cost-driven price volatility for fertilizers, petrochemicals (various olefin feedstocks), and specialty inputs (helium, sulfur). Some refined fuel prices are also up a bit (e.g. gasoline). But while there are price adjustments at the margin, physical supply remains sufficient and manageable so far, thanks to effective supply management, ample substitution options (e.g. CTO) and stockpiling.

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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@admcollingwood Yep, the Chinese also have alternative sources, such as the Russians, for which the Western world burned bridges with. I think that the Western elites are going into increasingly desperate wishful thinking. They waged this wsr against Iran to weaken China, but it has backfired.
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@mtmalinen The answer is that the Western world is twisting itself in a their own lies. They waged a hybrid war against the Russians using Ukraine as a proxy. It's all backfired because they are unable to get regime change and their Yeltsin to loot Russia. They have also lost the PR war.
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Tuomas Malinen
Tuomas Malinen@mtmalinen·
I am curious. You're mad at Russia because it attacked a country against international law. You also strongly support its fight to defend itself. At the same time, you're mad at Iran because it is defending an attack it came under against international law. How do you reconcile these in your head?
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@firasmodad The answer is that there is no meaningful reason to use the US dollar. It's a matter of inertia now. The US is not the world's manufacturing dominant power and now the Petro-dollar is over. The main issue is that the US is desperately trying to get everyone to use the USD.
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Firas Modad
Firas Modad@firasmodad·
If Iran is able to control Hormuz, and the Houthis Bab al-Mandab, then the USA is no longer the security guarantor of global trade. If America is not the guarantor of global trade, there is no reason to use the American dollar. Ending the war now means de-dollarisation. Now that Trump is in the war, he's stuck. But the end will be the same: even if the Americans occupy Iran for 20 years, in the end, they will have to leave, and Iran will dominate Hormuz again. It's wiser to take the pain now rather than stay on this insane path.
@

BIG WIN: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the Strait of Hormuz: “We’re seeing more and more ships go through on a daily basis... but over time, the U.S. is going to retain control of the straits, and there will be freedom of navigation, whether it is through U.S. escorts or a

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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@fandompulse He's right. They are essentially stealing Tolkien IP and using it to preach their preferred political ideology. I am very disappointed in how Galadriel was portrayed with no gravitas. Dark skinned elves. Multiple inaccuracies in warfare. They are trying to destroy Tolkien.
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Fandom Pulse
Fandom Pulse@fandompulse·
Chuck Dixon on why The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power is so bad: "What Amazon is doing to Tolkien is an abomination. The people doing the work obviously don’t understand the original work. They are adding elements that are very 2022 to it that five years from now are going to appear laughable. They’re taking a timeless tale and setting it basically in our contemporary zeitgeist. And it’s just wrong." How right is he?
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@ekwufinance It's not going to work. Ultimately Europe is going to have to come begging for forgiveness from the Russians. Whether the Russians are willing to forgive Europe is another matter. The European countries don't realize how lucky they are to have Putin in charge.
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Lukas Ekwueme
Lukas Ekwueme@ekwufinance·
Poland is capping fuel prices - VAT reduced from 22% to 8% - Costs ~$430M per month - Partially funded through a windfall tax on energy companies This is becoming the go-to playbook for governments: subsidize consumption to ease short-term pain, while simultaneously taxing producers more heavily. The result? Higher demand paired with weaker incentives to produce. In the middle of the largest supply shortfall in history, governments are effectively pouring gasoline on the fire... boosting consumption while discouraging production. That’s a textbook recipe for shortages.
Lukas Ekwueme tweet media
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Chris
Chris@Chris_Somewhere·
@WallStreetMav You make this sound like the US is doing this out of benevolence. It is not. The US is doing this out of its desire to maintain a hegemony. You are screaming in impotent rage because the Iranians are not going to roll over and let their nation's resources be plundered.
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Wall Street Mav
Wall Street Mav@WallStreetMav·
Americans dropped nukes on Japan twice and now they‘re best friends. Americans defended Europeans for free the past 80 years and they are the most ungrateful pricks imaginable. There is a lesson to be learned there.
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