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Daily commentary: Markets on edge as Hormuz deadline drives oil higher and sentiment swings On Monday, United States (US) President Donald Trump imposed a new 48-hour deadline (Wednesday, 02:00 SAST) for the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. Fluctuations in tone over the weekend caused mixed reactions in markets, but as President Trump’s tone turned more aggressive on Monday, the market is yet again positioning slightly more towards risk. Asian trade was mixed leading into this morning, with Japan down 0.2%, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index managed a 0.4% climb. US futures are, however, not as optimistic, with S&P 500 futures down 0.5% this morning. Oil prices indicate tension in the market, with Brent gaining 1.59% to trade at $111/barrel this morning as markets anxiously await developments leading up to the deadline. Gold is slightly down, pressured by a stronger dollar, to trade at $4,646/ounce, while the US Dollar Index has moved above the 100 mark again. While the market’s focus is on President Trump’s latest deadline and it will be the key driver of markets, we will also keep our eyes on data later in the week. Key events include the Fed’s FOMC minutes and US CPI, which is expected to start reflecting the impact of the war in Iran on the US consumer. The rand managed to trade stronger to R16.77/$ yesterday; however, the escalation in risk saw it retreat alongside its peers to start today at R16.90/$, R19.50/€ and R22.36/£. Please note that all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Escalation fears return as markets reverse gains and oil surges The see-saw continues as a new escalation was ignited by United States (US) President Donald Trump overnight, when he threatened to “hit Iran very hard” over the next few weeks. US markets closed in the green yesterday, with the S&P 500 gaining 0.72%. US futures, however, are reflecting a turn in sentiment this morning, shedding nearly 1%. Asian markets also reversed gains from yesterday. South Korea’s KOSPI tumbled by 3.7%, while Japan’s Nikkei fell 2%. Oil is up over 6% this morning, at $107/barrel, on escalation fears, while the US Dollar Index is up above 100 again, trading 0.4% stronger. Gold shed 1.85% to trade at $4,666/ounce. Data continues to be overshadowed by the war, but we will keep an eye on US initial jobless claims later today. The rand is pricing in the shift in sentiment and is trading at R16.98/$, R19.58/€ and R22.46/£. Please note that all information is at the time of writing. We will not be publishing the Citadel Daily Commentary or the Citadel Weekly Market Wrap tomorrow or Monday, due to the Easter long weekend. Our commentary will resume on Tuesday, 7 April. We wish you a safe and happy holiday. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Ceasefire hopes lift global markets as risk sentiment rebounds Ceasefire hopes filtered through the markets and improved sentiment, as word from Iran, indicating that it would be willing to end the war subject to certain conditions, drove markets higher. This comes after United States (US) President Donald Trump’s statement yesterday, that the US is ready to enter into a ceasefire. Wall Street rallied overnight, the S&P 500 ended the US session 2.9% stronger, while the Nasdaq climbed 3.8%. Asia took its lead from the US, with the South Korean KOSPI being the biggest winner, soaring 6%. Oil prices saw a sharp fall Tuesday, but are up 1.2% this morning, to trade at $105/barrel, as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Gold made gains on the positive news, trading at $4,683/ounce and the US Dollar Index retreated to 99.8 after reaching a 10-month high. Any news from the White House and Iran will be the key market movers today, while on the data front, we will be keeping an eye on the EU unemployment rate, local manufacturing PMI and US retail sales. The rand also rallied on hopes of the war coming to an end, to trade at R16.88/$, R19.53/€ and R22.35/£. Please note that all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Markets jolted by Iran-US mixed signals as oil pulls back and dollar strengthens As the war rages on, the week, once again, kicked off with mixed messaging from both the United States (US) and Iran. Wall Street was in the red for most of yesterday, with the S&P closing 0.4% softer. US futures saw strong gains after reports that US President Donald Trump would be willing to engage in a ceasefire prior to the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, however, earlier he upped his “obliteration rhetoric” towards Iran following Iran’s bombing of a loaded oil tanker from Dubai, demonstrating the contradictory narratives markets are trying to navigate. Oil prices retreated, following their four-day rally, on reports of a de-escalation preceding the opening of the Strait, trading 0.56% weaker this morning, following a 1% fall in the overnight session. Gold is holding its ground at $4,554/ounce, up nearly 1% this morning, while the dollar has hit its strongest level in 10 months. Chinese manufacturing data surprised to the upside this morning. Today, we will also keep an eye on European Union (EU) Consumer Price Index (CPI), the local trade balance and US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings. The rand is steady after weakening to R17.23/$, before seeing a slight reprieve. It is trading at R17.16/$, R19.68/€ and R22.65/£. Please note that all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Conflict deepens in the Gulf as markets brace for another volatile week While United States (US) President Donald Trump continues to state that Iran conceded to almost all of the US’s 15 terms to end the war, there has been little evidence of any halt to hostilities. Over the weekend, the Iran-backed Houthis joined the conflict, while Iran continued to fire at its Gulf neighbours. The US is also putting boots on the ground in the Gulf. In the markets, Asia started the week on the back foot, extending the sell-off from Friday, with Japan’s Nikkei falling another 4.7%, while the South Korean KOSPI fell 4.2%. S&P futures are in the green this morning, while other major index futures are teetering on the edge, setting the day up for yet more volatility. Oil prices climbed as President Trump threatened to take control of Kharg Island, which serves as the key export hub for Iran. Brent is up 1.94% this morning, trading at $114/barrel. Gold is holding steady at $4,500/ounce, while the US Dollar Index is stronger, trading just above 100. It’s a big week for data, with US employment data being released later in the week. Today will see US retail inventories and speak from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair, Jerome Powell, following the recent Fed decision. The rand is under pressure, trading at R17.13/$, R19.72/€ and R22.72/£. Please note that all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

In this week’s Weekly Wrap: Deal or no deal The week’s key themes: · Sovereign bond markets continued to sell off globally · Equity markets across most major regions came under sustained selling pressure · Crude oil remained the dominant market narrative · The dollar consolidated its recent recovery Read more here: bit.ly/4uVaALo

Daily commentary: Markets turn cautious as Iran talks falter ahead of SARB rate decision Yesterday saw some positive intraday sentiment as Iran reviewed the US’s 15-point plan to end the war. However, leading into Asian trade this morning, reports indicated that Iran has largely objected to many of the proposals made by the US. Wall Street closed higher yesterday, with the S&P 500 ending 0.5% up on the day. However, US equity futures started this morning in the red. The S&P is down 4.7% for the month. Asian markets traded largely flat to lower in early trade as uncertainty over the Iran war continues to weigh on sentiment. South Korea’s KOSPI shed 2.8%, leading losses in the region. Brent is up 1.5% this morning, at $103/barrel. Gold is also marginally in the green, trading at $4,515/ounce, while the US Dollar Index is at 99.60, 0.55% softer for the week. Focus points outside of the war include today’s SARB interest rate announcement, local PPI and US jobless claims. The rand continues to take its lead from the global backdrop and is trading at R16.98/$, R19.64/€ and R22.69/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Markets lift on ceasefire hopes but caution keeps volatility alive There is some optimism in the air this morning after the US sent Iran - via Pakistan - a 15-point plan to end the conflict, while Iran is allowing non-hostile ships to cross the Strait of Hormuz. Reports also indicate that the US has put forward a proposal for a one-month ceasefire. While the markets have reacted positively, their response has been measured. Wall Street closed lower during normal trade yesterday, but futures turned positive on the news, with S&P 500 futures up 0.9% this morning. In Asia, the relief could be seen as indices traded about 2% higher across the board. Oil markets saw a sharp decline, with Brent crude shedding 4.9%, as of this morning, to trade at $99.36/barrel. Gold saw some reprieve after suffering losses since the inception of the conflict. The metal is up 2.2% this morning to trade at $4,573/ounce. The US Dollar Index saw moderate declines and is approaching the 99 mark. The measured response by the market indicates that caution persists and that the risk of a collapse in talks is still being priced in. The hopeful sentiment will likely carry through to today’s trading session, bar any surprises. On the data front, UK CPI and PPI are due out today. The rand also benefited from the news of de-escalation, gaining ground to trade below the psychological R17.00/$ mark. Volatility is, however, expected to persist. The rand starts the day at R16.94/$, R19.66/€ and R22.71/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Markets whipsaw as Iran rejects talks and oil rebounds The markets’ roller coaster ride continues. Yesterday saw a walk back of the hard 48-hour deadline set by United States (US) President Donald Trump, as he called for a five-day engagement period with Iran. Iran, however, declined any talks with the US. The result was a volatile day in markets. A Wall Street rally saw a 1% gain on the back of the proposed talks, but futures were back in the red this morning as Iran rejected the proposal. In Asia, the conflicting stances also prompted caution in equity markets. While gains were witnessed, the overall picture was more pessimistic than the initial optimism seen following the Wall Street rally. After seeing a nearly 10% fall yesterday, oil recovered almost 4% this morning, as fears of a prolonged war were reignited. Meanwhile, the delay in strikes by the US dampened the dollar, with the US Dollar Index down 0.55% for the week, but it still remains at elevated levels. Precious metals continue to feel the pressure of hawkish central banks and profit taking, which sent gold to $4,300/ounce before it recovered slightly to $4,340/ounce. The uncertainty around the duration of the war and whether talks will eventually defuse the situation is keeping the market on edge and volatility escalated. The rand rallied to R16.77/$ but also lost ground following Iran’s rejection of talks, to trade at R16.94/$, R19.62/€ and R22.70/£ this morning. Please note that all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Global markets start the week on edge as Iran conflict dominates outlook The relief from United States (US) President Donald Trump’s change of tone on the war in Iran last week was short-lived. The double down of the escalation from President Trump over the weekend shook markets once again. Asia markets saw a sell-off coming into this week, with South Korea and Japan leading the losses. Friday saw Wall Street’s fourth consecutive week of declines and this morning, S&P futures are in the red. The escalation comes after President Trump threatened that should the Strait of Hormuz not be open within 48 hours, the US will go after Iran’s electricity grid, while Iran retaliated by threatening key water and energy infrastructure in the Gulf. Brent crude, which remains the critical indicator for markets, starts the day at $108/barrel, up just below 1.5% this morning. Meanwhile, gold continues its descent, down 2.8% this morning, to trade at $4,360/ounce. The dollar remains supported, with the US Dollar Index trading just below the 100 mark. With no key data releases for the day, the conflict in the Middle East will be the sole driver for markets as we head into the first session of the week. The rand, along with its emerging market peers, is feeling the weight of risk aversion and steeply weakened on Friday evening, carrying the losses into the new week. It starts the day trading at R17.13/$, R19.79/€ and R22.81/£. Please note that all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

In this week’s Weekly Wrap: A consensus to hold The week’s key themes: · Bond yields respond to central banks’ oil concerns · Global stocks face turbulence as high oil prices and hawkish central banks weigh · Brent experiences one of its most volatile weeks in recent memory · Central banks turn hawkish, with rate hikes on the cards Read more here: bit.ly/4rKQ7pR

Daily commentary: Oil shock rattles markets as inflation fears resurface and rand weakens Yesterday saw a steep selloff in markets as the oil price soared following strikes on an Iranian gas field and energy facilities. Adding pressure to the already fragile environment was the higher-than-expected US PPI release (a reading that did not yet reflect the spike in oil prices) and a hawkish Fed outlook. Wall Street saw declines yesterday, with all three indices falling by nearly 1.5%. Futures this morning are in the green as markets stabilise but remain on edge. Asian markets tracked Wall Street lower. The Nikkei is down by 2.6% this morning, followed by South Korea’s KOSPI, which shed 1.3%. Japan’s BoJ has kept interest rates unchanged and flagged concerns around inflation and upward pressure from oil prices. Oil soared over 7% yesterday and is up another 4% this morning to trade at $111/barrel. Gold retreated to $4,805/ounce before settling back above the $4,850/ounce mark. The US Dollar Index pushed back above 100 and is up 2.5% over the past month. The key metric remains the oil price, as rising prices continue to weigh on sentiment amid rising global inflation pressure. We will keep an eye on the BoE and ECB today, with both central banks expected to express their concern over the inflationary effect of high oil prices. US jobless claims are also due out later in the day. Locally, the rand is under pressure and traded to just above the R17.00/$ mark overnight. It starts the day at R16.94/$, R19.44/€ and R22.50/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Markets steady as Fed decision looms amid global uncertainty The market backdrop remains largely unchanged, with attention shifting to the Fed’s interest rate announcement later today. The expectation is, largely, for no cut with a hawkish stance. Wall Street closed higher yesterday, as Nvidia continued to boost tech stocks. This morning, futures are also in the green. Asia kept the momentum going, also climbing overnight, mostly driven by tech stocks. US oil inventory data assisted the oil price to take a pause, which is down 1.6% this morning to trade at $101/barrel after spending most of yesterday at $103/barrel. The dollar tracked the oil price lower, with the US Dollar Index retreating to the mid 99’s from just below the 100 mark. Gold failed to capitalise on the weaker dollar, sitting in the red this morning at $4,994/ounce. While the Fed interest rate decision takes centre stage today, an eye will also be kept on local and European CPI numbers, and US PPI later in the day. The data, however, will only provide insights into a pre-Iran war world. The rand has taken advantage of the weaker dollar, but remains volatile, trading at R16.67/$, R19.22/€ and R22.26/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Nvidia-led tech rally lifts Asia, but conflict risks and inflation fears cap global optimism Nvidia injected some positive sentiment into Wall Street, igniting a rally yesterday that trickled through to Asian semiconductor and technology stocks. The Asia Pacific Index is up 1.2% this morning. The rise comes on the back of the annual Nvidia developer conference, where Nvidia unveiled new AI systems. US futures, however, are in the red this morning. Any optimism, however, is capped, as the Iran war continues to weigh. Oil prices remain above $100/barrel with no end in sight for the conflict. Gold briefly fell below $5,000/ounce yesterday, as the strong dollar continues to weigh on the precious metal. It is trading at $5,027/ounce this morning. The Reserve Bank of Australia hiked rates for the second straight month as resurgent inflation, since the latter part of last year, has pushed the central bank into a corner. This week, more central banks are expected to express concern over rising inflation amid the Middle East conflict. The US Dollar Index pulled back after reaching a high of 104 yesterday, but the short-term trajectory remains upward. Locally, the rand managed to catch a breather on the back of the weaker dollar, rising to R16.63/$ before settling at R16.70/$ this morning. It is also trading at R19.19/€ and R22.22/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily commentary: Markets cautious as geopolitical tensions and oil prices dominate the week ahead As we head into the new week, the narrative remains largely unchanged as the Iranian war rages on. Markets are on the back foot this morning as Asian markets came under pressure, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index down marginally in early trade. The Japanese Nikkei lost 1.2% while the South Korean KOSPI was down 0.5%. In China, upbeat factory output and retail sales brought some relief for the world’s second largest economy as the numbers topped expectations. Turning to the US, futures for the S&P 500 are in the green this morning, after last week’s volatility that saw Wall Street close softer on Friday. Oil prices continue to weigh on sentiment as inflation outlooks worsen the longer the war rages on and oil prices remain under upward pressure. Oil is up 1.29% this morning at $104/barrel. Gold is down, now sitting on the brink of $5,000/ounce as the stronger dollar continues to take its toll. The US Dollar Index is now firmly at 100. The key event for this week is the Fed FOMC meeting. Interest rate cuts are completely off the table for the time being and the outlook from the Fed will likely highlight concerns over the oil price. The Fed’s forecasts on the interest-rate trajectory will be critical. The rand has consolidated after reaching a low of R16.95/$, starting this morning at R16.85/$, R19.29/€ and R22.34/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

In this week’s Weekly Wrap: Rising oil prices = Rising inflation and rising interest rates The week’s key themes: · Swift shift in interest rate expectations send global bond yields soaring · Sell-off on Wall Street drags S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow to their lowest closes since November · European natural gas prices soar over 60% for the month · Dollar set for its second straight week of gains, while the rand faces volatile swings Read more here: bit.ly/4briSlm

Daily commentary: Oil surges past $100 as Middle East tensions shake markets and stall rate cut hopes Yesterday was testament to just how fickle sentiment is and how fragile the geopolitical situation remains. Wednesday saw more ships in the Gulf being targeted and many oil terminals are now being closed, sending oil prices soaring back above $100/barrel - up nearly 9.5%. Once again, fears of persistently high oil prices, a prolonged conflict and the resulting spike in global inflation are mounting, despite the IEA’s commitment to release 400 million barrels of oil. While Wall Street ended yesterday largely flat, S&P futures are down just over 1% this morning. Asian markets also saw a decline in early trade, with the MSCI Asia Pacific being down nearly 2%. The dollar made strides on the back of the run in oil prices, with the US Dollar Index ticking up to just below 99.5. Gold is in the red this morning, down 0.45%, to trade at $5,153/ounce. Yesterday’s US CPI print was largely in line with expectations, but was overshadowed by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has spiked inflation fears. It’s a busy day on the data calendar, with local gold and mining production data and US jobless claims being released. Markets will, however, continue to take their cue from the situation in the Middle East and volatility is expected to persist. The rand, in line with deteriorating sentiment, came under pressure, trading at R16.61/$, R19.17/€ and R22.21/£ this morning. High oil prices and their knock on effect on inflation, now sees the possibility of a rate cut by the SARB later in the month decreasing significantly. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily Commentary: Markets steady as IEA oil reserve proposal eases supply fears Global markets took a cautious sigh of relief as the International Energy Agency (IEA) proposed the largest ever release of oil reserves to counter supply constraints caused by the ongoing conflict in Iran. Wall Street had an uneventful session yesterday, with futures slightly in the red this morning, while indices across Asia saw modest gains in early trade. It appears sentiment is returning to markets but it remains weary in light of the ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Oil prices are steady at $87/barrel, on the back of the IEA proposal, after facing severe volatility this week, while gold is marginally stronger this morning at $5,199/ounce. The US Dollar Index is steady just below the 99 mark. US CPI is due out today, marking the most important data release for this week. With a fragile market backdrop, a surprise could rattle market sentiment. The rand is stronger this morning, following a recovery yesterday that saw it rally to R16.13/$ before settling. It starts the day at R16.23/$, R18.88/€ and R21.83/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily Commentary: Markets rebound as easing Middle East tensions and oil pullback lift global sentiment After what was a terrible start to the week, as oil prices surged, markets quickly recovered on the back of President Trump’s comments yesterday, that the conflict in Iran might be coming to an end soon. He also alluded to easing sanctions on Russia to improve oil supply across the globe. After a tumultuous day, Wall Street ended yesterday higher. US equity futures, however, are in the red this morning. Asian markets rebounded in early trade, with the South Korean KOSPI rallying by 6%, while Japan’s Nikkei recovered 4%. Chinese indices also ended in the green, finding an additional boost from an uptick in the country’s trade balance. Oil fell nearly 10%, before settling slightly higher, amid President Trump’ s announcement, and starts the day at $94/barrel. Gold saw modest gains, up 0.4% this morning, to trade at $5,157/ounce. The dollar gave back some of its recent gains, with the US Dollar Index at 98 this morning. The focus will remain squarely on the events in the Middle East with markets having the potential to see a sharp recovery should we see an end to the conflict. The rand is also a beneficiary of the lower oil prices and improved sentiment, and has seen sharp gains in all three major currency-exchange pairings. It starts the day trading at R16.38/$, R19.01/€ and R21.97/£. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews

Daily Commentary: Markets retreat as Middle East tensions drive oil above $100 and pressure risk assets As the conflict in the Middle East continues, erosion of sentiment and pressure on risk assets remain prevalent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index is down over 5% this morning, with markets experiencing their biggest losses since US President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day in April 2025. China is also feeling the weight of higher-than-expected inflation readings. US futures are deep in the red this morning, setting the day up for volatile trade. The selloff in equities and emerging market currencies comes as oil prices surged above $100/barrel overnight, stoking inflation fears around the world. Oil is currently up over 24% this morning and is trading at $115/barrel. Gold is down around 1.5%, as investors turn towards the greenback and is trading at $5,082/ounce. The US Dollar Index is up 0.63%, sitting just below the 100 mark. The rand is under pressure, along with other emerging market currencies, and starts the trading week at R16.83/$, R19.42/€ and R22.42/£. Expect persistent volatility in the local unit. Please note, all information is at the time of writing. Follow us for daily economic updates. #CitadelGlobal #MarketNews #FinanceNews