ClevelandFedResearch

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Just under half of small employer businesses surveyed through mid-November 2025 reported using artificial intelligence, according to the Federal Reserve Banks’ Small Business Credit Survey. A majority of those reported increased productivity because of AI. clefed.org/4cT6k8v

💡 Demand-pull inflation 101: When consumers, businesses, or governments increase spending, producers respond by raising prices. Like a popular artist announcing a limited tour, they can only sell so many tickets and the demand is high. Learn more: clefed.org/4roe6uQ

Inflation impacts different areas in different ways. Data says that PCE inflation for core goods & services excluding housing rose in January, even after seasonal adjustments, compared to November and December, but housing prices don't follow this pattern. clefed.org/ec202604

The authors document that the discontinuity of UI rules at state borders shape UI and labor market dynamics. A heterogeneous-agent model with history-dependent UI implies an optimal policy with high monetary and short tenure requirements. See the article: doi.org/10.1111/iere.7…

Data says that PCE inflation for core goods and core services ex housing rises in January, even after seasonal adjustments, compared to November and December, but housing prices don't follow this pattern. See the report: clefed.org/ec202604

High-poverty schools receive more funding per pupil, but a new study focused on one big city district showed that low-poverty schools narrowed the gap by about 23% to 35% through private fundraising. See the paper: doi.org/10.3102/016237… #EconX

Just published: Cleveland Fed economist paper “Optimal Unemployment Insurance Requirements” was published at the International Economic Review. doi.org/10.1111/iere.7…

TODAY at 12 pm ET: a Fed Talk discussion on how labor market dynamics have changed over recent decades and the new hurdles facing young college graduates. Join us: clefed.org/4l6hwAO

Just under half of small employer businesses surveyed through mid-November 2025 reported using artificial intelligence, according to the Federal Reserve Banks’ Small Business Credit Survey. A majority of those reported increased productivity because of AI. clefed.org/4cT6k8v

Graduates with high school degrees now face nearly the same unemployment rates as those with college degrees —the smallest gap since the late 1970s. Join us to discuss new Cleveland Fed research on this labor market shift: clefed.org/4l6hwAO

Small employer businesses reported experiencing challenges growing their sales and with rising costs in 2025. See the full survey results: clefed.org/4cT6k8v #SmallBusiness

Check out the next generation of economists! Our Economic Scholars Program on April 17–where undergraduate students present their research and receive real-time feedback–will be streamed live. Watch from anywhere: clefed.org/esp #ESP2026

Check out the next generation of economists! Our Economic Scholars Program on April 17–where undergraduate students present their research and receive real-time feedback–will be streamed live. Watch from anywhere: clefed.org/esp #ESP2026

Recent college graduates no longer find jobs significantly faster than high school graduates. Our next Fed Talk explores why the US labor market has shifted, with key findings from Cleveland Fed research. Join us 3/20: clefed.org/4l6hwAO

The Cleveland Fed’s median PCE #inflation rate was 0.2% in January and 2.9% on a year-over-year basis. Latest update: clefed.org/PCE

Just under half of small employer businesses surveyed through mid-November 2025 reported using artificial intelligence, according to the Federal Reserve Banks’ Small Business Credit Survey. A majority of those reported increased productivity because of AI. clefed.org/4cT6k8v

Monthly #PCE inflation data will be released tomorrow. Our #inflation nowcasting model (updated daily!) predicts year-over-year PCE #inflation of 2.60% for February. Check it out: clefed.org/3yCkTHV

The Cleveland Fed's latest estimate of 10-year expected #inflation is 2.26%. clefed.org/IE

Median #CPI rose 0.2% in February and 2.8% on a year-over-year basis. See our latest median #CPI and trimmed mean #CPI updates: clefed.org/CPI

Applications are CLOSING SOON for presenters for our Economic Scholars Program! Apply and submit your proposal TODAY to be evaluated for acceptance to the conference: clefed.org/esp #ESP2026