PolyClimatologist

@Harnisc08225444 @Polymarket @Polymarket I can volunteer👀

Good morning @Polymarket #weather prediction. More isnt better! Your brackets are so off in many Citys. Cant you just pay a Community member to help with the Brackets and just do 3 days in advance Maximum to avoid this.

@Fai5alAld0sar1 @Polymarket My thoughts exactly.

@Polymarket I’m pretty sure if we’re going that far we can just say everyone is related.

NEW: Analysis reveals President Trump & King Charles are 15th cousins.

@atteonthephone At which point was the 19 celsius bracket on Poly cleared, I wonder?

Today in Seoul - the hardest city on Poly just got harder. WU, the official resolution website, will now, apparently, sometimes (or at least in this one case) show a different temperature for the same timestamp, depending on the IP address of the user who is visiting the webpage.

@Vvtentt101 2/10 list

CITIES WHERE WEATHER IS EASIEST TO PREDICT ON POLYMARKET Flat terrain. Single climate zone. Models agree Seoul Continental monsoon with sharp distinct seasons. Winter is cold, stable, and highly tradeable. >> Model: ECMWF top skill over Korean Peninsula, especially November through February Atlanta Mild subtropical climate, no ocean chaos. Pressure systems change slowly, fronts arrive on schedule. >> Model: NAM 3km grid over CONUS, updates 4x//day, best for Southeast US temperature Dallas Open plains, zero orography. Summer heat is stable and highly predictable. >> Model: GFS 13km grid, strong over flat terrain states, free and updates 4x//day Shanghai Flat, single climate regime. Winter and summer are stable transition seasons add some noise. >> Model: ECMWF consistently outperforms GFS over East Asia Single regime, slow systems, no orographic chaos that's the formula, everything else is noise

@Vvtentt101 Blatant lies, the Singapore record high temp was 37 celsius in 1983.

Edge appears when real-world data has already shifted the true probability, but the market hasn't reacted yet (due to oracle lags, update delays, people being asleep, and low liquidity) Examples: Weather: the station in Singapore already recorded 38°C, but NEA updates in 18 minutes The bot knows q =0.95 while the market still sits at 0.55 5-min BTC: the bot sees the live price on the exchange while Chainlink oracle is lagging by a few seconds >> massive temporary edge

@atteonthephone Why for 20c, and not for say, a 5c bracket?

Today in Jakarta - Allegations of sensor manipulation. This case is not as clear as the Paris manipulation on April 15, but the person behind this trade made a new account just for this one trade, which makes it extra suspicious. @0xaf25d8e9c649d36fd5d4637acd429390569c6206" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@0xaf25d8e9c64…

@Kalshi You charge transaction fees, so you ARE the house. A 1% difference in edge for Casinos is the difference from being a Viable Business model and a free ATM....

Rule #3: We aren't the house. Kalshi is a federally regulated exchange where you trade against other users. We make money on transaction fees, not market settlements.

Not all prediction markets are the same. Some are regulated in the United States. Some aren’t. Kalshi is. Rule #1: We ban insider trading. And we enforce it.

@SupnPablo I'm not religious, but I pray for her recovery. 🙏🙏

My mom diagnosed cancer a month ago. Still feels unreal

@atteonthephone 🐐🐐🐐🐐

First time in Dallas

@atteonthephone I called the earlier arrival but still lost :/. Won 250 initially and then lost around 120.

Today in Chicago - Cold front hit earlier than expected... and it hit HARD

@Polymarket 100% would have been more believable

BREAKING: North Korean state media announces Kim Jong-un has won the parliamentary elections with 99.93% of the vote.

Crazy day in Lucknow today...

@Polymarket Who is in charge of Marketing at Polymarket?

No one cares about ballet and opera. Everyone has a take on something.

@atteonthephone Imagine the traders who bought the 0.1c shares

Today was the first time I got to experience an actual weather market resolution dispute (due to WU malfunction related to DST change in the KLGA market for March 8)

@sopersone What? You just made that all up

This weatherman turned $6 → $2,990 on one weather market on Polymarket he made $35,735 using just one strategy the strategy is very simple > he monitors NOAA forecasts in real time > sees that the market is heavily underpricing an event > simply buys at under 5¢ > sells when the market corrects to 95¢ small risk on entry + price asymmetry + repeatability = money his profile: @BeefSlayer?via=sopersone" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/@BeefSlayer?vi…

@Apolynaryay @gusik4ever You get comfortable winning 30, 40, maybe 50 times in a row - and then you get to see why 98c is not 'free'.

@gusik4ever U love safe plays

sometimes you just need to be locked in. 1 market, 2 profits

@PiratesPredict @Harnisc08225444 @Polymarket Any clue as to what cities? :D

@Harnisc08225444 @Polymarket Garrrrr! 🏴‍☠️ 🦜

@PiratesPredict told me there are new Weathermarkets on @Polymarket for India and Germany ☀️

@Harnisc08225444 @PiratesPredict @Polymarket Can't wait for Germany, Delhi would be crazy from early June to mid September.

@Harnisc08225444 Better to be safe than sorry, fear of missing out is the biggest risk in trading.

Sometimes i cant decide what to do and i get scared. London is crazy today and iam a Pussy

@Hans323 @IWillShortYou True, unless you want to brute force your way through 30-50 variations of the same model to pick out discrepancies when trading only a few hours before the high temp

@IWillShortYou i dont have my own model, i always believed that existing models will be better than something a random person can make

back to back win in NYC, this time it was $1,5k great way to close the week and kick off the new month