Patricia Marins@pati_marins64
Why Iran is Winning the War
Beyond the Blast: Why Strategy, Not Firepower, is Winning the Day
Asymmetric wars should not be analyzed through the lens of damage sustained, but rather by the objectives achieved. Vietnam was hit by 7.5 million tons of bombs and won the war.
Afghanistan was struck by over 2 million tons of Soviet bombs and won. In the early 2000s, Afghanistan was again invaded and hit by over 200,000 tons of American bombs. Once again, it won, forcing a desperate U.S. withdrawal under the Taliban’s advance, leaving billions of dollars in equipment behind.
Today, the Taliban still rule Afghanistan, just as the CPV, which won the war and unified the country, rules Vietnam.
In the current war against Iran, three coalition objectives were clear:
1Dismantle the nuclear program.
2Topple the regime.
3Limit the missile program.
1. Dismantling the Nuclear Program
Not only has it not been dismantled, but the coalition is unsure of its exact location. The IAEA states there is a new facility where material was moved, but cannot pinpoint where or if it is all in one place.
Furthermore, while the North Korean leader routinely fires missiles into the sea, waging a “war against Godzilla”, -Netanyahu has been doing the same on the Israeli side, but dropping bombs on rocks, as if trying to kill “The Thing” from the Fantastic Four.
The fact is, these facilities built with Iranian UHPC (Ultra-High Performance Concrete) can only be destroyed with “boots on the ground” and an invasion operation that the U.S. is currently unable to execute. While the future landscape may change, the dismantling effort has failed since 2025.
2. Toppling the Regime
Israel not only had a plan for decapitation strikes but convinced the Americans that these assassinations and bombings would create the perfect atmosphere for an uprising. The plan failed. The sheer violence of the killings and bombings terrified the Iranians themselves.
They even bombed the residences of regime opponents, suggesting they wanted to “clear the field” to handpick a successor. No uprising occurred. Instead, the Iranian government had a plan, establishing a chain of 4 to 7 successors for every key position. These attacks may have actually breathed new life into the Iranian theocracy.
3. Limiting the Missile Program
On March 20, Bloomberg reported that Iran has already launched over 3,000 missiles. More importantly, Iran deployed HGVs (Hypersonic Glide Vehicles), technology only Russia and China possess, demonstrating surprising technological advancement.
Also on the 20th, Iran surprised again by launching missiles at Diego Garcia, located nearly 4,000 km from its territory. The missile program has not been halted; on the contrary, it appears to be expanding.
