CloudBreak

Disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is lifting #fertiliser and #fuel costs, squeezing global #cereal and #oilseed growers' margins and tightening global supply. However, with over half of Gulf state demand reliant on this corridor, food security risks are rising.

May ’26 #wheat rose 7.25 USc/bu, supported by dry US Plains conditions and higher crude oil prices, but the short-term market trend remains in a sideways band. The #AUD fell 0.52c amid weaker risk sentiment, a stronger USD, and escalating Middle East tensions.

May ’26 #wheat rose 7.75 USc/bu as weather forecasts for the US Plains remain dry, with the 7-day outlook indicating above-average temperatures that could negatively impact winter wheat production. The #AUD fell 0.53c after Australia’s February #CPI eased to 3.7% y/y.

May ’26 #wheat ↓ 7.5 USc/bu. WTI crude oil dropped over US$10/bbl (10%), dragging ag commodities lower. The #AUD ↓ 0.08c, as #Trump’s decision to delay planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure reduced immediate geopolitical risk and limited support for the Aussie.

May #wheat ↓12.75 USc/bu due to forecasts of rain in dry #US wheat belts, while #French wheat is reported at 84%, up 10 pp YoY. The #AUD ↓ 0.90 due to risk-off sentiment as Middle East tensions increase safe-haven USD demand.

Widespread and welcomed #rainfall of 10–150mm since late Feb has set a positive tone for growers in Southeast #Australia. Most regions have now received >100% of avg March rainfall, boosting soil moisture ahead of seeding, starkly different to this time last year.

May’26 #wheat ↑ 3.75 USc/bu, testing short-term resistance at 615 USc/bu, supported by stronger-than-expected US new crop wheat sales of 212 kMT. The #AUD ↑ 0.64 c, driven by robust Australian employment growth despite a slightly higher unemployment rate.

May ’26 #wheat ↑14.5 USc/bu, supported by forecasts indicating continued dryness across the US Plains over the next fortnight. The #AUD ↓0.8c, while the Fed held rates steady amid inflation concerns, and ongoing US–Iran conflict continues to support the safe-haven USD.

May’26 #wheat ↓ 7.5 USc/bu (~A$4/t), pressured by poor competitiveness against Russian and EU exports, though the broader uptrend holds near support. Meanwhile, the #AUD ↑ 0.39c, supported by an RBA rate hike and a weaker USD outlook.

May’26 #wheat ↓ 16.5 USc/bu (A$8.50/t), dragged by US soybeans dropping after China-US trade stalled; EU rapeseed and Canadian canola also declined, while #AUD ↑ 0.72c, boosted by USD weakness and anticipated RBA rate hike.

May ’26 #wheat ↑ slightly to 3.75USc/bu after earlier gains, supported by US Southern Plains dryness and a 9% surge in oil prices boosting ag commodities. Meanwhile, the #AUD ↓ 0.78c as Middle East tensions strengthened the USD and increased risk-off sentiment.

Following #Trump’s comments that the war would be short-lived, markets briefly calmed. However, escalating Iranian counterattacks continue to push energy markets higher. Since last night, Apr ’26 US #crude oil ↑ 10% & May ’26 US #ethanol ↑ 4%, spilling over into grain futures.

May ’26 #wheat ↑ 3.75 USc/bu after an early rally, supported by dry conditions in the US Southern Plains and a 9% surge in WTI crude oil. The #AUD↓ 0.78c as investors moved into the USD amid rising oil prices and escalating conflict in the Middle East.

May’26 #wheat ↑ 3.75 USc/bu, trading within a 12 USc range and holding above 580 support. Ags followed crude higher after projectiles reportedly hit vessels near the Strait of Hormuz. #AUD ↑ 0.35c to fresh multi-year highs on speculation that the RBA could hike rates next week.

May ’26 #wheat ↓ 12.25 USc/bu, pressured by a sharp drop in crude oil after efforts by Donald Trump to calm markets. The #AUD ↑ 0.37c, supported by higher bond yields and expectations of tighter policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

May’26 #wheat ↑ 19.5USc/bu since last Friday due to spillover strength from energy and oilseed markets amid escalating tensions between the US and Iran. The #AUD ↑ 0.72c on stronger Chinese CPI, though gains were limited by global inflation concerns and Middle East tensions.

May’26 #wheat ↑ 15.5 USc/bu due to spillover effects from a surge in crude oil and oilseed prices. The #AUD ↓ 0.69c following renewed USD strength driven by solid US economic data and safe-haven flows, while Australian trade figures came in softer.

May’26 #wheat ↓ 5.75 USc/bu as ABARES estimates Australian 25/26 wheat production at 36MMT (+1.9MMT y/y) and barley at a record 16.3MMT. #AUD ↑ 0.43c on USD weakness and improved risk sentiment amid reports Iranian operatives are seeking discussions to end the war.

May’26 #wheat ↓ 3.25 USc/bu as improved rainfall forecasts across eastern US SRW wheat growing regions pressured prices. The #AUD ↓ 0.57c as escalating tensions following Iran’s retaliation against US-Israel strikes lifted demand for the safe-haven USD.

May’26 wheat ↓ 14.25 USc/bu on the back of market speculation that US agricultural commodity sales to China could be reduced, as China imports oil from Iran. The AUD ↑0.46c on the back of softer USD demand amid political uncertainty and oil prices rising to an eight-month high.