Cole Kenefsky

@TXpaintbrush Can try to prevent stalling out by creating SSH Keep-Alives every 30-60 seconds.

I wish I could always write about the glory and honor of what I do, and have brilliant and insightful posts that make readers both laugh and cry. But this is a boring post. This is about an odd networking and digital infrastructure problem that probably won't affect most of you. However, as someone that found a lot of help from random strangers back in the StackOverflow days about niche python and SQL problems - this is me, paying it forward. Maybe this helps someone else in the future. Boring Claude / Codex / Gemini workflow and networking infrastructure post below: In January, I bought a mac mini. It was hyped back then for OpenClaw usage (which I did not install) but the madness behind the hype showed me that a Mac mini works great as a low-wattage fanless development server. Big fan so far. Little square block kicks butt for $500 and is tucked in out of the way in my home office. However, I live in an area where Starlink is my best internet option. Normally I use tailscale+ssh to access my little dev server, and I've had very few issues since then. When I'm not working from home office, I'm usually using a 5g OTA cell network for my ISP connection at my office. I wouldn't call it flawless, but it's been plenty serviceable given the infrastructure constraints. However, in the last 24hr, I've been noticing massive degradation in Claude / Codex / Gemini speeds as they drop+retry communications with their data center motherships. I get routine disconnects in the terminal to the dev server and have to restart the connection. This is a purely Starlink connection issue as I can let processes run autonomously on the dev server when I'm out in meetings or walking properties. It's never been flawless using 5g networks remotely to connect to home network via Starlink, but recently it's gotten VERY tough. Lots and lots of disconnects. It feels like both Starlink and the 5G networks are now having problems simultaneously. I'm using the AI to troubleshoot the networking hiccups and (nicely!) it's also cleaned up a ton of clogged-up RAM usage I didn't know was compounding the problem. So that's cool. So far it's looking like mosh + some other fixes will help remedy this network disconnect/drop situation. Because right now it's dropping approx every 20 seconds. In parallel, I'm looking into getting a VPS at Hetzner as a backup or even as the new daily driver, though I know I use some intense bandwidth occasionally for large data sets. May also surf ebay for used mac minis from folks that gave up on OpenClaw and just stash them in the closet at friend's houses who have fiber internet in the ground. Because as fun as it is to learn new acronyms like CGNAT, DERP (no joke), and differences between IPv4 versus IPv6 - I really do prefer just having a single steady connection I can depend on. Having intermittent internet connections to an on-prem server is like having a really stuffed up nose - you forget how much you take breathing for granted until it becomes noticeably impaired.

Sunbelt Multifamily Market Review - 2025 Meant as a personal reflection documenting my thoughts this year. - Continued pent-up equity demand - Increasing transaction volume - Improving credit conditions - Little motivation to sell - Weaker operations - Tight yields

@thechrismeade Yes - trying to figure out the space right now!

This tweet popped. Do I do a day two?!

If you don’t have to sell, why would you? All markets participants in the sunbelt acknowledge supply dropping and fundamentals strengthening in the mid term. Many perceive that we are in a higher rate environment, only so much equity will go negative leverage. If you own an asset with depressed operations and in volatile rate environment, why sell now? We target well located A/B +200 unit deals. The owner profile isn’t dumb. They aren’t going to realize returns rn. But they are on the offense. With that being said, transaction volume is decade low, notably when you consider deal count. Owners aren’t going to, at least any time soon, adjust pricing expectations relative to cap rates. There’s really 2 catalysts in my mind which pop volume. Treasuries decline to 3.5 (can get 1.25 spread on agency) which puts a quality deal squarely in positive leverage. And/or Debt funds start taking haircuts and pushing sales as all the extended loans can longer go on.

With my apologies to @jayparsons who is merely the summarizing messenger but catching strays in the screenshot

Every CRE conference takeaway is “limited transaction volume” It’s only “limited” to a bloated allocator industrial complex of career transactionistas hired during a long run up to a fever pitch txn mkt that pulled forward a decade of volume Real estate equilibrium is holding

@JakeStoutland How are you going to make money with this?

Public Service Announcement: I have changed this account from TheDukeofDirt to JakeStoutland (have also updated my profile pic) On top of the username change, I am shifting the focus of this account towards golf content Why? 7 months ago, I began creating golf content on Instagram (as a hobby) Today, I have 57,000+ organic followers on IG The account is growing extremely fast Ultimately, this content shift has led to significantly more networking opportunities which have naturally led to real world business application (the off ramp from online to IRL is WAY faster for me when producing golf content) My stance on social media is three fold: 1. Stay top of mind 2. Demonstrate expertise in a domain 3. Grow a network I would be giving up #2, but I feel #3 is infinitely larger AND I am able to build deeper connections much quicker when I create golf content *Also - I find more enjoyment making golf content In case you're curious, here is a recent video I posted to IG

No one wants to get left holding the bag, implied leverage often unnecessary, toothy agreements. I think if you’re buying a deal you can unlock a ton of value executing a gl. I also think the fact many groups won’t touch one creates more opaqueness for the subset of deals creating opportunities for the right deals.

Is there a reason multifamily investors have a general aversion to ground leases, regardless of term, cost, or structure? I spoke with several brokers who said many buyers wouldn't touch a deal with a ground lease, but no one could articulate why. @maxsharkansky / @ColeKenefsky_ / @Keith_Wasserman any insights?

@huntrjohannes2x Tough tape job pal

@Jakeladeveloper $1,258,850 or $251,770/unit. What are you like $1m/unit?

Building a 5 unit townhome project on the Westside of Los Angeles? Here is what an ESTIMATE of the soft costs will look like: Architect = $75,000.00 Land Use Consultant = $15,000.00 Topographic Survey = $8,000.00 Construction Surveying = $12,000.00 Grading Plans= $10,000.00 Tract Map/Final Map = $15,000.00 Structural Engineer= $25,000.00 MEP Engineer = $25,000.00 Landscape Architect = $10,000.00 Soils (Geotechnical report)= $10,000.00 Soils Deputy Inspections= $12,000.00 Parks and Recreation Fee= $85,300.00 Deputy Inspections = $20,000.00 Admin & Legal = $25,000.00 Entitlement Fees= $25,000.00 Plan Check Fees = $10,000.00 Utility Fees= $75,000.00 Linkage Fees = $218,850.79 Permit Fees= $10,000.00 School Fees= $40,312.06 Insurance = $25,000.00 Marketing= $92,500.00 Interior Designer= $20,000.00 Third Party Reports (Noise, Air Quality, Traffic Study) = $10,000.00 Contingency = $43,698.14 Development Fee (6%)= $370K

Don’t give up on it yet. You and your GPs timing has been very poor. Would love to see how you got comfortable with the deals you’re in and figure out where they stand. For reference I reviewed about 500 multi deals last year (564 to be exact) and about 400 this year. (Also don’t need your money and won’t ask for it).

alternatively i made another real estate investment 1 year ago the distributions have paid roughly a 6% cashflow which i am not upset about but tbh i don't really see the value in investing into real esate boring as hell

invest in real estate they said... it'll be fun they said... this is 2+ years of distributions, which is underperforming parked cash in the bank by 80% absolute hot garbage

@DonovanBuilds Congrats Donovan thats big time. Any chance you can get him involved?

This week was the first time I told my Nigerian father I’m no longer an engineer If you’ve been following me on here you know that I left my job as a petroleum engineer 3 years ago Told him I’m doing real estate stuff now He asked me if I needed money

@carrynointerest How do you set up campaigns

You know what blows my mind to this day? There's a pretty simple framework to becoming one of the most well connected people in an industry THE STEPS: 1) Send 10,000 cold emails a week. 2) schedule 50-60 calls a week. This is a nightmare. It is worth it. 3) Yap like your life depends on it. I mean really dig in. Ask about their favorite football team. Ask about their kids. GIVE VALUE. Take notes. Be flexible. 4) UPDATE THE CRM. EVERY SINGLE TIME. Make custom tags for each type of person you interact with. THIS IS KEY. 5) Repeat for 20 weeks. Around week 4, interesting things start to happen. 6) Set up drip campaigns for the contacts who didn't hate you to check in. Mix in a few conferences and I shit you not you will be one of the most informed people in an industry. Source: me Extremely simple, an absolute grind to execute. Then again, you could be a coal miner 🤷‍♂️

@TexasDoughnut_ @TheRealEstateG6 Track and offered on a ton of this stuff over the last couple years. Though insolvency is real, lenders are not in a rush to realize losses. Many have operating platforms or partners. Not many “deals” to be had.

@TheRealEstateG6 the cap rates gapping up and supply hitting in a big wave is driving rents down and occupancy lower in the older product most likely to be on a thinner DSCR i would imagine (not to mention insurance, capex, and tax whiffs)

securituzed debt maturing before '26 grouped by DSCR coverage from newmark

- Munger

You might get 5-10 real life-changing opportunities throughout your life. You need to be wise enough to notice them and prepared enough to take advantage. How to think about Preparation: "The only way to win is to work, work, work, work, and hope to have a few insights." Develop into a lifelong self-learner through voracious reading; cultivate curiosity and strive to become a little wiser every day. More important than the will to win is the will to prepare. Develop fluency in mental models from the major academic disciplines. If you want to get smart, the question you have to keep asking is "Why, why, why?"

@SideHustle_LP We should be selling if so

Lot of FOMO going on in risk assets Haven't seen this level of excitement since 2021 Only a matter of time before the LFG's and 🚀🚀🚀 tweets start coming back

@Camp4 I sold a few thousand worth at 900 and thought I was smart.

I’ve been investing for 30 years. I've done very well with boring stuff like real estate and indexes but I missed all the 100 baggers—Apple, Tesla, Nvidia. Bitcoin is about to become my first 100 bagger. And truth be told I didn’t even know what it was when I bought it.

About Independence: Mimicking the herd invites regression to the mean (merely average performance). You have to think independently to outperform. Objectivity and rationality require independence of thought. Remember that just because other people agree or disagree with you doesn't make you right or wrong— the only thing that matters is the correctness of your analysis and judgment. "Only in fairy tales are emperors told they are naked."

@jayparsons I think there will always be a bid but policy risk is increasingly burdensome

What's a safer investment over the next 10 years?

How to think about investment risk: All investment evaluations should begin by measuring risk, especially reputational. - Mitigate / Eliminate reputation risk. Reputation will follow you to the grave. - Incorporate an appropriate margin of safety. Your proforma is never perfect. - Avoid dealing with people of questionable character. Most problems are people problems. - Insist upon proper compensation for risk assumed. Get paid for your work. - Always beware of inflation and interest rate exposures. Look at all the issues in the real estate world right now. - Avoid big mistakes; shun permanent capital loss. Never take a 0.

@zachware There’s a park by house the regularly, nearly daily, has +100 people waiting to play on a 6 court area. Crazy how popular it continues to be.

The reason pickleball will outgrow padel is its simplicity. Padel requires a purpose-built court with glass/mesh walls. Pickleball requires a net you can carry in a backpack. There's a reason the entire world plays soccer, rich and poor. All you need is a ball and some sticks to setup a goal.