Antoine Colpaert

Bitcoin is holding above 80K despite ETF outflows and a slightly hotter CPI print. Here’s what Bitcoin options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiment beneath the surface.

Bitcoin broke through resistance and pushed into the 82K to 83K area, bringing volatility back into the market after weeks of compression. Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.

@hanakoxbt An open short on one’s life also means his life was 100% hedge. In this world it’s not completely crazy.

an ex-Citadel quant told me a salary is a short position on your own time we were at a dinner in new york. friend of a friend. he asked what i do. "software engineer. $4,200 a month" he said one simple thing "you're mass-selling the most valuable asset you have. your hours. at a fixed price. with no upside. that's a short position on your own life" i didn't have a response. then he showed me his phone. a terminal. live trades. +$39,453 running for 6 weeks. "i built this with Claude Opus 4.7 and one open source dataset. took a weekend. haven't touched it since" i asked how. "gave Opus one repo and one prompt. find who wins on prediction markets. find why. copy their edge" github.com/Jon-Becker/pre… 2,900 stars. 36GB. every trade on Polymarket and Kalshi. every wallet. every resolution. Opus read the whole dataset friday night. by sunday it had a live terminal scanning 1,400 markets per hour. 8 detectors running in parallel. entering when void score exceeds 90. exiting when it drops below 75. no human override. > Senate filibuster. locked at 42c. now 98c. +$1,133. > Neuralink approval. entered 52c. now 98c. +$1,396. > Fed 0% rate. entered 35c. now 97c. +$1,147. > BTC 250K. entered 8c. now 98c. +$1,258. > Megaquake. entered 6c. now 97c. +$1,039. the part that broke something in me: latency arbitrage. Polymarket updates in 19ms. Kalshi in 63ms. the bot trades the 44ms gap between them. automatically. every time. "we had four people at Citadel doing what your bot does with latency alone" copy mirror tracking 6 positions: > Senate fili +$1,252. void signal. 10%. > BTC 250K +$958. zero signal. 2%. > Neuralink +$1,384. sign signal. 9%. > Fed 0% +$863. fill signal. 8%. > Megaquake +$1,070. bridge signal. 18%. > META AI +$979. gas signal. 5%. 972 trades. 83% win rate. kelly f+ 0.101. avg profit $10.65. drawdown -1.4%. maker rebate tracker collecting $203 across four platforms while the bot trades. Polymarket +$114. Kalshi +$40. dYdX +$28. Betfair +$21. $1,800 seed. +$39,453. i quit the next morning. one email. "i'm done. thank you for everything." copytrade setup: @1743116" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">kreo.app/@1743116 texted him a week later. "you ruined a perfectly stable career" he replied "no. i closed your short position"

Bitcoin remains rangebound following April’s rally and its rejection just below 80K. Here’s what Bitcoin options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiment beneath the surface.

Bitcoin has retested February highs just below 80K and is now consolidating slightly below this level. Here’s what BTC options data shows on positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.

Bitcoin is attempting to break above the 74–75K zone after two rejections in March. Here’s what Bitcoin options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiment beneath the surface.

Bitcoin is at the top of its range following ceasefire headlines, but this does not signal a return to a fully functioning market. Here’s what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.

We’re entering April as geopolitical risks weigh on risk assets. Here’s what Bitcoin options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and underlying sentiment.

Bitcoin has consolidated within a $62.8K–$72.6K range for over a month and has failed to break out to the upside on multiple occasions. Is the current move toward the range high the one that finally pushes BTC higher?

Bitcoin pushed back to the top of its range, briefly tapping 74K before slipping back below. Here is what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and market sentiment beneath the surface.

Bitcoin is consolidating in a tight range below 70K. Here’s what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the surface.

Bitcoin is consolidating in a 65k to 73k range after extreme volatility earlier this month. Price looks calm. The options market does not. Here’s what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility expectations, and sentiment beneath the move.

Bitcoin fell nearly 35% in 8 days, then rebounded +15% from the low. Below is what BTC options data reveals about positioning, volatility, and sentiment beneath this sharp move.

I'm a Reserve Manager at a central bank. My job is buying gold. 297 tons this year. Quietly. While we print money. Loudly. Gold hit $5,000 an ounce yesterday. We've been buying since it was $1,800. That's called "reserve diversification." Diversification means we don't trust our own currency. But we can't say that. So we say "diversification." The Governor went on television last month. He said inflation is "anchored." Anchored means 6%. Used to mean 2%. We moved the anchor. That's monetary policy. He said the currency is "sound." Sound means losing 20% of its value. Per year. But it sounds sound. That's what matters. We bought 45 tons in November. Poland bought 95 tons. Brazil bought 43. China reports 1 ton. China is lying. We all know. Nobody says it. 95% of central banks plan to buy more gold next year. That's a survey. We surveyed ourselves. On whether we trust ourselves. We don't. We trust gold. Citizens ask why prices keep rising. We say "supply chains." We say "external factors." We don't say "we printed 40% of all money in existence since 2020." That's not external. That's us. The Finance Minister asked if gold is a hedge against our own policies. I said "gold is a strategic reserve asset." Strategic means yes. I just can't say yes. Gold is $5,000 now. Our currency buys less every day. Our gold buys more. That's the strategy. For us. Not for you. You get the currency. We get the gold. That's central banking.

@_genk__ @onchainmo Except for the fact that he lures people in with his 1000$ 4 years ago and don’t say a word on where the 1.8mil came from.

@onchainmo Excellent article — clear, concise, and straight to the point.

@onchainmo And how did you get to 1000$ 4 years ago to 1,8 mil today … that’s the interesting part

Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move.

The market is up nearly 10% YTD and consolidating after the 95K breakout. Here’s what options data is signaling beneath the surface about positioning, volatility, and sentiment.

After a strong start to the year, Bitcoin is retesting the 90K level. Here is how the options market is reacting through volatility, skew, and recent options flow.

Largest $BTC options expiry on deck, and spot is still stuck in its recent range. This thread looks at positioning and volatility signals into the event, and why this expiry could matter for price behavior next.