Colubeat ID

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Colubeat ID

Colubeat ID

@ColubeatID

✍️I analyze great businesses. Some undervalued, all high quality. Always learning 🔗 https://t.co/k91CQDZ0Ov

Katılım Nisan 2012
524 Takip Edilen298 Takipçiler
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
I’ve seen growth hide structural weakness until it’s too late. If a Co spends more capital to grow than it earns, it’s destroying value. No complex models, I'm explaining the logic here. Behind the Number #02 - Revenue went up. Did the business get better? <9 min. Link below 👇
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
At $190. Watwood spent 15y at Motion. Strong operator, but Motion is transactional distribution, no private brands or platform stickiness. Thesis runs on POOL360 & private labels. He hasn't built either. That's what the market is pricing today $POOL
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
A company grew revenue +61%. Net income +68%. Zero debt. 19M cash. Trades below consulting multiples. Started this thesis at $62. Now above $80. Publishing anyway. Because the business matters more than the entry. Sector: water treatment. Thesis tomorrow.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Looking at the $POOL exit. You don't replace a CEO 11 days after a beat and cancel Investor Day unless there's a serious disagreement on strategy. In my opinion, the Board didn't buy into the roadmap Arvan was about to present for the next few years
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Q2 & Q3 reports will look ugly. Bloomberg’s 8-month rent abatement starts now, and the cash balance decreases until the 202M from Rego Park is received in Q3. It's a temporary accounting impact, not a business risk. Lease is secured to 2040, the math is intact. 2/2
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Checking the $ALX Q1: results confirm the pressure I wrote about in the thesis. FFO fell to $2.60 & cash is down to 152M. Home Depot’s revenue exit is already reflected in the numbers, and leasing prep costs hit expenses. It's the expected "pre-sale" cleanup phase. 1/2
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
I’ve seen growth hide structural weakness until it’s too late. If a Co spends more capital to grow than it earns, it’s destroying value. No complex models, I'm explaining the logic here. Behind the Number #02 - Revenue went up. Did the business get better? <9 min. Link below 👇
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Q1'26 earnings included as well now
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Colubeat ID retweetledi
Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
Most deep dives die a week after posting. I've updated $ERF Eurofins w/ actual FY25 results. The data shows the plan is working. New valuation is in & there’s still a big gap to close. $ERF.PA Link in the 1st reply. 👇
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
$TIC filed a 10-K/A after omitting a director's 1.2M share sell plan. Plus 2 more Form 4 errors today; the back-office is clearly struggling. Still long, but watching closely. May is the most important date on the calendar. Link below 👇
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
With the stock trading around $210, the $POOL board just released an update. They increased the dividend by 4% and added $329M to their share repurchase program. The total is now $600M. They're making sure they have the capital ready to keep buying at these prices
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@RaphiSavitz On Heritage: Yes, they overlap in $POOL's top 4 markets (FL, TX, CA, AZ). I don't think they cap growth just by competing for M&A. The real threat is HD using its balance sheet to subsidize prices and buy market share. No evidence of it yet, but it's the risk worth watching
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@RaphiSavitz Thanks! On the drop from $240: it's a mix of valuation and macro. At $240, $POOL hit 22x forward earnings, which is fair value right now. Add in weaker April housing data and the market waiting to see that $1.7B inventory clear, and the bounce just capped out.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
I went through the $POOL Q1 release and the earnings call. I haven't changed my view. Q1 actually hit four of the five signals I set for this year. I put together a quick read on the gross margin and the current inventory levels. (<10 min read)
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID

If you're long $POOL (I am), this Q1 print gave us exactly what we needed. Those 50+ new centers aren't dragging margins anymore, they're actually driving growth. With Rev +6% and Op Income +7%, we've officially hit positive op leverage. Quick read for now full detailed note soon

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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@Mr_Neutral_Man It’s wild to see the stock back at December levels after that divestment. The gap between the sale and the buyback is just clean arbitrage. I’ve been adding to my position today. The business is in a better spot now, even if the price doesn't show it yet
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Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”
Mr Neutral Man aka "Howard Marks of REITs”@Mr_Neutral_Man·
Ladies and Gents, Public Markets!!! $ERF is buying back stock like crazy, the stock rips 30% to almost 74 Euros from a low in early December and has recently given up most gains since its low in Dec It has sold a testing business at double the current EV/EBITDA for $677mm
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@Mufasa_Capital Fair point, but 4.5% of the float is a lot of buying power at these valuation. I've been adding more to my position today. Whether it’s a trade or not, the entry price at €58 is hard to ignore from a fundamental side
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Mufasa
Mufasa@Mufasa_Capital·
@ColubeatID You’re quite on point, but I sense there’re still short sellers circulating around the stock, and the war chest for buybacks isn’t very material. Having said that, we could see a nice trade before next Q earnings.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
The -10% reaction yesterday was significant, so I’ve spent time going through the Q1 results and my notes from the call with Gilles Martin. I think we need to look at the actual data before reacting further. $ERF
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID

Quick $ERF Q1 notes: People will focus on the 2.6% org. growth headline, but it's just FX & temp delays. Not a demand issue. Margins improved despite low volume. Plus, €110M buybacks. Selling non-core at 18x to buy $ERF at 10x is smart capital allocation. Wait for H2 2026.

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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@Mufasa_Capital Thanks! You're right about the Capex end. I'm fine with the market selling here; it's just how the market is reacting right now. At €58, I just see a better opportunity for the company to retire shares at a lower valuation
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Mufasa
Mufasa@Mufasa_Capital·
@ColubeatID Good write up. Gilles has been quite consistent with his story and real turning point should come in 2027 when the Capex program ends. Meanwhile, if market wants to sell, maybe a good idea to respect the ST trend. $ERF
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
@JordiGarces92 Exactly. The market is just pricing the CSL exit. Once that drops off the income statement next year, the 20% growth will be obvious.
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Jordi Garcés
Jordi Garcés@JordiGarces92·
@ColubeatID Good analisis! The market sees: -2.7% revenue decline 📉 The analyst sees: +20% organic plasma growth 📈 Same company. Two different stories.
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Colubeat ID
Colubeat ID@ColubeatID·
I just published a new thesis on $HAE. I spent time checking why the headlines don't match the organic data, there’s a huge disconnect. If you’re looking for a high-margin business trading at a multi-year discount, it’s a strong setup. Link below.
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