Combat Edge

👑 Main Event | Emmett vs Vallejos | FW 🤖 AI Pick: Vallejos (86%) — HIGH confidence 📊 Market: 82% | Stake: 1.18 ⚠️ Limited — Vallejos has 3 UFC fights Generational clash. Vallejos (17-1) at 24 lands 5.78 sig. strikes/min at 47% accuracy vs Emmett's 3.72/min at 36%. At 41, Emmett's 44% TD defense is a liability. Model and market agree strongly. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/josh-emm…

🥊 Main Card | Lemos vs Robertson | WSW 🤖 AI Pick: Robertson (66%) — MED confidence 📊 Market: 68% | Stake: 1.42 Model agrees with market. Robertson's grappling (2.74 TD/15min) should be the difference vs Lemos' 64% TD defense. But Lemos has 55% striking accuracy and the power edge. If Robertson gets it down, she controls the pace. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/amanda-l…

⚡ Main Card | Fili vs Delgado | FW 🤖 AI Pick: Delgado (65%) — MED confidence 📊 Market: 79% | Stake: 1.22 ⚠️ Limited — Delgado has 3 UFC fights Market loves Delgado way more than we do (79% vs 65%). His 8.22 sig. strikes/min is elite volume but he absorbs 5.44/min. Fili's experience (22 UFC fights) and 72% TD defense could keep this closer than odds suggest. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/andre-fi…

🔥 Main Card | Rahiki vs Hardwick | FW 🤖 AI Pick: Rahiki (93%) — HIGH confidence 📊 Market: 70% | Stake: 1.40 ⚠️ Very limited — Rahiki has 0 UFC fights Our highest confidence pick on the card, but also our least tested. Rahiki (7-0) makes his UFC debut with 5.96 sig. strikes/min and 2.08 sub attempts/15min. Hardwick absorbs 7.16/min with just 40% strike defense — dangerous combination. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/marwan-r…

💪 Main Card | Cutelaba vs Sy | LHW 🤖 AI Pick: Sy (74%) — MED confidence 📊 Market: 72% | Stake: 1.35 ⚠️ Limited — Sy has 4 UFC fights One of our most trustworthy picks on the card. Sy's 70% strike defense and 100% TD defense are elite. He absorbs just 1.72 sig. strikes/min vs Cutelaba's 3.34. Cutelaba's wrestling (3.77 TD/15min) hasn't cracked Sy's armor in his UFC run. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/ion-cute…

💫 Main Card | Johnson vs Silva | FLW 🤖 AI Pick: Johnson (59%) — LOW confidence 📊 Market: 60% | Stake: 1.63 Dead heat. Johnson out-strikes at 4.68/min vs Silva's 3.82, but Silva has the grappling edge with 2.3 TD/15min. Johnson's 5" reach advantage (70" vs 65") could be decisive in a close fight. Model and market in lockstep. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/charles-…

🎯 Prelim | Curtis vs Orolbai | WW 🤖 AI Pick: Orolbai (66%) — MED confidence 📊 Market: 76% | Stake: 1.28 Market significantly more confident (76% vs 66%). Orolbai's 5.82 TD/15min is a massive weapon — but Curtis' 83% TD defense could neutralize it. Curtis out-strikes at 6.16/min but absorbs a brutal 6.43/min. At 38, tough style matchup for The Action Man. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/chris-cu…

🚨🚨 Prelim | Petrino vs Asplund | HW — BIGGEST CONTRARIAN PICK 🤖 AI Pick: ASPLUND (80%) ❌ DISAGREES with market — HIGH confidence 📊 Market: Petrino 68% | Stake: Asplund 2.90 ⚠️ Very limited — Asplund has 1 UFC fight Our wildest swing. Market has #15 Petrino as clear favorite but our model gives Asplund 80%. His 19.93 sig. strikes/min in his UFC debut is absurd volume. HIGH RISK pick — built on 1 fight of data. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/vitor-pe…

💀 Prelim | Smith vs You | BW 🤖 AI Pick: Smith (58%) — LOW confidence 📊 Market: Smith 71% | Stake: 1.37 ⚠️ Very limited — Smith 2 fights, You 3 Market likes Smith way more than we do. You (16-3) has far more overall experience. With just 2-3 UFC fights between them, our model can't get a firm read. Market probably has more intel than our stats-based model here. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/elijah-s…

📊 Prelim | Oki vs Sousa | LW 🤖 AI Pick: Sousa (63%) — MED confidence 📊 Market: 71% | Stake: 1.36 ⚠️ Very limited — Sousa has 0 UFC fights Sousa (13-1) makes his UFC debut. Market gives him 71% but our model is more cautious at 63%. Without UFC-level data for Sousa, our model is flying blind. One to watch, not to bet the house on. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/bolaji-o…

🎲 Prelim | Tavares vs Anders | MW 🤖 AI Pick: Tavares (59%) — LOW confidence 📊 Market: Pick'em (50/50) | Stake: 1.92 each The OG veteran battle. Market calls it a coin flip but our model leans Tavares at 59%. With 26 and 18 UFC fights respectively, this is our most data-rich pick. Two aging middleweights who know each other's game — slight AI edge to Tavares. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/brad-tav…

✨ Prelim | Mesquita vs Rendon | WBW 🤖 AI Pick: Mesquita (76%) — HIGH confidence 📊 Market: 84% | Stake: 1.14 ⚠️ Very limited — Mesquita 1 fight, Rendon 3 BJJ legend Bia Mesquita (6-0) is the heavy favorite. Market is MORE confident than us (84% vs 76%). With just 1 UFC fight for Mesquita, there's uncertainty, but her world-class grappling pedigree speaks for itself. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/beatriz-…

🔥 Prelim | Lacerda vs Sosa | BW 🤖 AI Pick: Sosa (84%) — HIGH confidence 📊 Market: 67% | Stake: 1.42 ⚠️ Very limited — Sosa has 0 UFC fights Model is WAY more confident than market (+17% edge). Sosa (13-1) makes his UFC debut. But with 0 UFC fights, this high-confidence pick is built on limited data. The market may know something our model doesn't. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/luan-lac…

🎯 Prelim | Rodriguez vs Hughes | WSW 🤖 AI Pick: Rodriguez (60%) — LOW confidence 📊 Market: 58% | Stake: 1.70 Close fight, model and market agree. Rodriguez (11-2) has a slight edge over Hughes (11-6). With 6 and 11 UFC fights, respectively, decent data coverage. A competitive strawweight scrap that could go either way. 🔗 combat-edge.com/fight/piera-ro…

🥊 UFC Vegas 114 — Emmett vs Vallejos: AI Model vs The Market Our 5-model ensemble agrees with the market on 13 of 14 fights — but DISAGREES on 1: 🔥 Asplund over Petrino (model 80% vs market 33%) 🎯 More confident than market: Rahiki (93% vs 70%), Sosa (84% vs 67%) ⚠️ Caution: Many high-confidence picks have very limited UFC data (Rahiki 0/1, Sosa 3/0, Asplund 8/1). Most trustworthy high-conf picks: Vallejos (16/3 fights) and Sy (17/4). Full card breakdown below ⬇️ combat-edge.com/event/ufc-figh… #UFC #MMA #UFCVegas114

🏋️ Light Heavyweight Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato 📊 Market: Fernandez -213 (66%) | Bellato +175 No AI prediction data — but the market strongly favors Fernandez. Bellato is a solid test for the rising prospect. combat-edge.com/fight/luke-fer… #UFC326 #MMA

🏋️ Light Heavyweight Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay 📊 Market: Tobias -172 (63%) | Nurgozhay +140 No AI prediction data for this one — but the market favors Tobias. Nurgozhay is a dangerous finisher making his way up. combat-edge.com/fight/rafael-t… #UFC326 #MMA