Combat Edge

Two stars were born at UFC Oklahoma City combat-edge.com/news/two-stars…

Vegas: @dricusduplessis 71% to beat @USMAN84kg. Combat Edge model: 56%. A 15-point disagreement, and it comes down to one number. Du Plessis defends takedowns at 35%. The UFC middleweight average is 59%. Usman lands 2.79 takedowns per 15 min and stuffs 90% of his own. The model still leans DDP. Should it? combat-edge.com/fight/dricus-d…

Our model gives @KillaGorillaMMA a 12% chance on Saturday. Twelve. This is rare for our model and I would approach this carefully. Elo alone would say 44% — he and @CLDuncan_ are only 40 points apart. The full model looks past Elo and finds this: Duncan absorbs 2.59 sig strikes/min. The UFC middleweight average is 3.81. Duncan has never been knocked out. Cannonier has, three times. He's 42. Too harsh, or just correct? combat-edge.com/fight/jared-ca…

.@chase_hooper attempts 2.08 submissions per 15 minutes. The UFC lightweight average is 0.51. That's 4x. Mitch Ramirez defends takedowns at 25% — the UFC lightweight average is 58%. Hooper averages 2.43 takedowns per 15 minutes. You can see where this is going. The model says 84%. Then again, Hooper's lost two straight. Neither got out of round one. If Ramirez can find Hooper's chin before getting taken down, he could get away with the upset. combat-edge.com/fight/chase-ho…

The #11 strawweight is a -500 favorite over the #8. Vegas gives @fatima_kline7 83%. Our model says 70% — it likes @TabathaRicci more than the market does. Kline absorbs 2.71 sig strikes/min against the 4.08 UFC strawweight average. Ricci absorbs 4.83. They share an opponent: both beat Angela Hill by unanimous decision. Common-opponent breakdown at the link. combat-edge.com/fight/tabatha-…

They had to be separated at the weigh-ins. The numbers explain why. Tommy McMillen lands 9.87 significant strikes per minute — more than double the UFC featherweight average of 4.00. He's 10-0. Alberto Montes attempts 6.77 submissions per 15 minutes — 11x the UFC featherweight average of 0.63. Volume striker vs a man hunting necks. McMillen opened +160 and is now -150. combat-edge.com/fight/tommy-mc…

Austin Bashi averages 7.81 takedowns per 15 minutes. The UFC featherweight average is 1.61. That's nearly 5x — the most extreme takedown number on this card. He also has the higher Elo: 1721 to 1693. And our model still favors Jose Delgado 57-43. Elo alone says Bashi 54%. The full model flips it. Delgado lands 7.48 strikes/min — Bashi lands 1.75. Who's right? combat-edge.com/fight/austin-b…

Now we are entering the higher level fights on the UFC Oklahoma fight card. Seok Hyeon Ko absorbs 1.42 significant strikes per minute. That is the lowest figure on this entire card, and 63% below the UFC welterweight average of 3.85. He is extraordinarily hard to hit. Vegas has him at 67%. Our model calls it a dead 50/50. @jeanpaulmma is on a 5-fight win streak. They've both beaten Phil Rowe. combat-edge.com/fight/jean-pau…

Levi Rodrigues Jr is 5-0. All five by knockout. Felipe Franco is 10-2. All ten wins by finish — six KOs, four submissions. Fifteen wins between them. Zero decisions. This light heavyweight prelim is not seeing the scorecards. Full records and Elo history at the link. combat-edge.com/fight/levi-rod…

Two UFC debutants. 7-0 and 5-0. Twelve professional wins between them. Zero decisions. Nine submissions. Ezra Elliott has finished all seven of his fights in round one. Somebody's 0 goes on Saturday. Our model leans Elliott 60% — the market has him a +126 underdog. But Damien Anderson is a dangerous bjj specialists and if it goes to the ground, he could end the fight quickly. combat-edge.com/fight/ezra-ell…

UFC Fight Night Oklahoma tonight @AldenCoria is a -1100 favorite. The market prices him at 92%. Our model says 70%. We really don't like 10-1 favorites in MMA. That's a 22-point split — the biggest genuine disagreement between Combat Edge and Vegas on this card. Coria is legit: 70% strike defense, 71% takedown defense, absorbs 2.40/min vs the 3.83 UFC flyweight average. But -1100 prices in perfection. Trap, or free money? combat-edge.com/fight/alden-co…

RJ Harris opened -200. He's now +115. The market flipped on a 5-0 heavyweight debutant inside a week. Our model didn't move — it still has him at 63%. Being straight with you: Harris has no UFC tape, so the model is working off Elo and record alone (1616 vs 1630). Alvin Hines has been in the Octagon before. That matters. His time off is due to a doping suspension, which muddies the water for this fight. combat-edge.com/fight/rj-harri…

Anna Melisano takes a short-notice UFC debut, up a weight class, against @dionebarbosamma. Vegas: Barbosa 86%. Our model: 50/50. Fair warning — Melisano has no UFC tape, so that 50% is the model saying "I don't know," not spotting an edge. Barbosa is the more active grappler at 1.74 sub attempts per 15 min. The market is probably right here. combat-edge.com/fight/anna-mel…

UFC Oklahoma City is a card our model and the betting market keep disagreeing about. The main event is the tightest elite pairing on the board: Elo 1842 vs 1822. Twenty points between two "Great" tier middleweights. Vegas has Du Plessis at 71%. Our model says 56%. Fight-by-fight breakdowns, Full card and predictions in the link below. combat-edge.com/event/ufc-figh…

Bro TKOed himself in the first round and claims that Max wouldn't have attacked him in the fight if there had been one. UFC needs to move on. There's incredible talent on the roster. Build them up. There will be another star. Fun fact: McGregor peaked at 1,830 Elo based on @Combat_Edge_com - 39th highest of all time. Great, but there are already plenty of currently active fighters who are currently higher than McGregor's peak.

Bobby Knuckles @robwhittakermma jumps into the top 10 in the world at light heavyweight thanks to this knockout.

While Gable Steveson showed glimpses of brilliance and athleticism in this win, his MMA Elo still only puts him at 79th in the world at heavyweight.

The great @yanezmma jumps back into 1,700s elo.

@LukeRileyMMA Check the full featherweight rankings here: combat-edge.com/division/feath…

With this decisive win, @LukeRileyMMA jumps to 16 in the world based on Elo rankings.