Analysis by Comet

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Analysis by Comet

Analysis by Comet

@Comet_Miller

🥏 Analytics | 2022 NFL #BigDataBowl Honorable Mention | 포기는 배추를 쎌 때나 하는 말이죠 | Comet Miller ↔️ 밀혜성

Katılım Ocak 2021
5 Takip Edilen161 Takipçiler
Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
Since I’m not using this site hardly at all anymore, to keep up with our work, check out our new Bluesky page “@shownspace.com” and/or subscribe to the Shown Space Substack.
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
The short of it is that we presented research on player contribution at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in March and we received 2nd place! So we decided to take the manuscript and build a website so that the metrics developed can be more accessible.
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@watchUFAtv ...reliably contribute to success/failure on the field, it's possible that this bias will correct itself.
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@watchUFAtv ...bias is something that we'd want perpetually predicting future outcomes. Of course currently, the model I'm using in simulations is a Bayesian logit model only taking into account home field advantage and team strength. So, as I'm able to include more attributes that...
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
One fun part of building models and simulations is seeing where they fall short. Not because it's fun to be wrong but because finding concrete biases can be enlightening. In evaluating the @watchUFAtv 2024 season simulation I built, it's interesting that... #30DayChartChallenge
Analysis by Comet tweet media
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
Day 21 of #30DayChartChallenge is "green energy". Expansion teams can be considered "green", so here they're outlined. Since the pandemic, @watchUFAtv expansion teams are either terrible or really good with no in between.
Analysis by Comet tweet media
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
Back to a few final plots showing the simulated season, mostly to finish out the #30DayChartChallenge uncertainty section. The white lines (which end up looking like a funnel) represent a team's path through the simulated 2024 @watchUFAtv season.
Analysis by Comet tweet media
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@watchUFAtv For example, though unlikely, the simulation shows it's possible Montreal gets back to being about an average (1500) team. After week 1, it certainly seems as though they'll outperform expectation. Simulation didn't know about the Tobe Decraene impact 😅
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
For day 28 of #30DayChartChallenge we have two trend plots showing the week 1 @watchUFAtv Super Series game. Two slightly different ways to view how the game progressed. The fourth quarter pull away really put the game out of reach.
Analysis by Comet tweet mediaAnalysis by Comet tweet media
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
The previous ridges plot are individual opponent Elos, which is why there is much more variability. In the true average Elo rating plot, the distributions are much tighter showing avg opponent Elo for each simulated season. Conclusions still the same, just two different views
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
In a late night post, I realized I made a mistake in the title of the plot. The previous plot wasn't actually *average* opponent Elo rating, but *sorted* by the average opponent Elo rating. This plot shows the actual average opponent difficulty over the 1000 sims.
Analysis by Comet tweet media
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller

For perhaps a more analytical approach, (but not to take away from the writing and analysis of @itsdanielcohen) here is another way to view strength of schedule. I simulated the upcoming @watchUFAtv season 1,000 times... More details below in 🧵 #30DayChartChallenge

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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@larrypmac_tor @itsdanielcohen @watchUFAtv Aka the "regression to the mean" phenomenon tends to, on average, miss the extreme results that often happen in a single actually played-out season. We got a random, unpredictable world we live in (but *on average* pretty predictable)😅
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@larrypmac_tor @itsdanielcohen @watchUFAtv Ha, they did! 0.9 wins per season (on average) over the sims. Lower bound of the 95% interval is 0 wins, upper bound is 3 wins. I will say, as is customary with lots of models (especially top-down ones based on team rather than player), the extremes are tough to get accurate.
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
For perhaps a more analytical approach, (but not to take away from the writing and analysis of @itsdanielcohen) here is another way to view strength of schedule. I simulated the upcoming @watchUFAtv season 1,000 times... More details below in 🧵 #30DayChartChallenge
Analysis by Comet tweet media
Ultimate Frisbee Association 🥏 UFA@watchUFAtv

The five toughest schedules heading into the 2024 season 1. Montreal Royal - .624 2. Carolina Flyers - .571 3. Colorado Summit - .561 4. Atlanta Hustle - .556 5. DC Breeze - .551 Full breakdown for all 24 teams: watchufa.com/league/news/20…

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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@samth @watchUFAtv @itsdanielcohen I regret that the title of the plot makes it more confusing than it should be 😣 the distribution is made up of opponent Elos in all 1000 season sims. So the plot is showing 1000 times 12 regular season games. Title should say *sorted* by avg elo. Costly late night mistake 🚩
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@itsdanielcohen @watchUFAtv There's a lot more to say that can't be explained in a thread, but the last comment I'll make for now is that this is player agnostic, so no, this does not take into account the players NY lost or the player your favorite team added. It's solely based on estimated team strength
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Analysis by Comet
Analysis by Comet@Comet_Miller·
@itsdanielcohen @watchUFAtv On the right extreme, the Hustle, Royal, Breeze, Phoenix, Shred, Glory, Rush, and Wind Chill all get the opportunity play the star-laden (but weakened?) dynasty this year. Between those two extremes, it's tough to parse exactly, but trends are noticeable if you know the schedule
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